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Fantasy EPL Player Projections: Gameweek 31

Football is notoriously hard to predict, and as such, EPL projections for the fantasy draft game are rare. With so few goals scored, upsets tend to happen more than in other sports, whilst the limited use of substitutes also makes it easy to misjudge the amount of playing time an individual will get. Add these to the fact that any position can and does contribute to almost all aspects of the game (unlike in many American sports), as well as the fact that one goal can have a monumental impact on a player’s score (e.g. a goalkeeper can go from +8 to -2 with one kick), and you have a recipe for disaster. And that’s not even considering the unprecedented situation we currently find ourselves in where some managers are making 8 changes between each game and others can’t fill out their substitutes bench!

So, with that all said, I present to you Fantrax EPL projections for Gameweek 31. Please go easy on them!


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Gameweek 31 EPL Projections

Note: all numbers are based on Togga scoring. Players are colour coded by projected playing time. Green = almost certain to start; yellow = 70-90% chance of starting; red = 50-70% chance of starting, grey = unlikely to start but could play some part. The process explaining these projections can be found at the foot of the article.

Goalkeepers

GOALKEEPERS Team  Proj. Clean Sheet Proj?
1 Jordan Pickford EVE 12.00 Y
2 Kasper Schmeichel LEI 12.00 Y
3 Rui Patricio WOL 12.00 Y
4 Alisson LIV 10.25 Y
5 David de Gea MUN 10.00 Y
6 Nick Pope BUR 8.00
7 Ederson MCI 6.25
8 Martin Dubravka NEW 6.00
9 Simon Moore SHU 6.00
10 Hugo Lloris TOT 6.00
11 Pepe Reina AVL 4.00
12 Vicente Guaita CRY 4.00
13 Lukasz Fabianski WHU 4.00
14 Emiliano Martinez ARS 2.00
15 Mat Ryan BHA 2.00
16 Tim Krul NOR 2.00
17 Alex McCarthy SOU 2.00
18 Ben Foster WAT 2.00
19 Aaron Ramsdale BOU 0.00
20 Kepa Arrizabalaga CHE 0.00

 

Defenders

DEFENDERS Team Proj. Clean Sheet Proj.?
1 Trent Alexander-Arnold LIV 20.00 Y
2 Lucas Digne EVE 17.50 Y
3 Matt Doherty WOL 17.00 Y
4 Joseph Gomez LIV 15.50 Y
5 Luke Shaw MUN 14.00 Y
6 Aaron Wan-Bissaka MUN 13.50 Y
7 Serge Aurier TOT 13.50
8 Seamus Coleman EVE 13.00 Y
9 Virgil van Dijk LIV 13.00 Y
10 Ben Chilwell LEI 12.75 Y
11 Harry Maguire MUN 12.00 Y
12 Willy Boly WOL 10.75 Y
13 Jonny Evans LEI 10.50 Y
14 Dejan Lovren LIV 10.25 Y
15 James Justin LEI 10.25 Y
16 James Tarkowski BUR 10.25
17 Jonny WOL 10.25 Y
18 Michael Keane EVE 10.00 Y
19 Caglar Soyuncu LEI 9.50 Y
20 Ben Mee BUR 9.00
21 Christian Kabasele WAT 9.00
22 Eric Bailly MUN 8.75 Y
23 Mason Holgate EVE 8.50 Y
24 Federico Fernandez NEW 8.25
25 Matt Targett AVL 8.25
26 Adam Masina WAT 8.00
27 Charlie Taylor BUR 8.00
28 Conor Coady WOL 8.00 Y
29 Kortney Hause AVL 7.75
30 Craig Dawson WAT 7.50
31 Ryan Bertrand SOU 7.50
32 Shkodran Mustafi ARS 7.25
33 Aymeric Laporte MCI 7.00
34 Benjamin Mendy MCI 7.00
35 Dan Burn BHA 7.00
36 Davinson Sanchez TOT 7.00
37 Jan Bednarek SOU 7.00
38 Tyrone Mings AVL 7.00
39 Marcos Alonso CHE 6.75
40 Adam Webster BHA 6.50
41 Jamaal Lascelles NEW 6.50
42 Ben Davies TOT 6.25
43 Cesar Azpilicueta CHE 6.25
44 Danny Rose NEW 6.25
45 Jack Stephens SOU 6.00
46 Lewis Dunk BHA 6.00
47 Max Aarons NOR 6.00
48 Issa Diop WHU 5.25
49 Martin Montoya BHA 5.25
50 Nathan Ake BOU 5.25
51 Diego Rico BOU 5.00
52 Javier Manquillo NEW 5.00
53 Steve Cook BOU 5.00
54 Jamal Lewis NOR 4.50
55 Yan Valery SOU 4.50
56 Kiko Femenia WAT 4.25
57 Aaron Cresswell WHU 4.00
58 Enda Stevens SHU 4.00
59 John Lundstram SHU 4.00
60 Djibril Sidibe EVE 3.75
61 Kyle Walker MCI 3.75
62 Jack Robinson SHU 3.50
63 Ruben Vinagre WOL 3.50
64 Scott Dann CRY 3.50
65 Adam Smith BOU 3.00
66 Jeffrey Schlupp CRY 3.00
67 Rob Holding ARS 3.00
68 Chris Basham SHU 2.75
69 Gary Cahill CRY 2.75
70 Hector Bellerin ARS 2.75
71 Antonio Rudiger CHE 2.50
72 Matthew Lowton BUR 2.50
73 Ezri Konsa Ngoyo AVL 2.25
74 Phil Jagielka SHU 2.25
75 Jeremy Ngakia WHU 2.00
76 Kieran Tierney ARS 2.00
77 Ryan Fredericks WHU 2.00
78 Timm Klose NOR 2.00
79 Ahmed El Mohamady AVL 1.75
80 George Baldock SHU 1.75
81 Joel Ward CRY 1.75
82 Patrick van Aanholt CRY 1.25
83 Adrian Mariappa WAT 1.00
84 Erik Pieters BUR 1.00
85 Jack Stacey BOU 1.00
86 Leighton Baines EVE 1.00
87 Nicolas Otamendi MCI 1.00
88 DeAndre Yedlin NEW 0.50
89 Neco Williams LIV 0.50
90 Reece James CHE 0.50
91 Andreas Christensen CHE 0.25
92 Kyle Walker-Peters SOU 0.25

 

Midfielders

MIDFIELDERS Team Proj. Clean Sheet Proj.?
1 Paul Pogba MUN 19.00 Y
2 Bruno Fernandes MUN 18.00 Y
3 James Maddison LEI 17.50 Y
4 Nathan Redmond SOU 16.75
5 Kevin De Bruyne MCI 16.00
6 Riyad Mahrez MCI 16.00
7 Gylfi Sigurdsson EVE 15.50 Y
8 Jonjo Shelvey NEW 13.25
9 Dele Alli TOT 13.00
10 Christian Pulisic CHE 12.25
11 Joao Moutinho WOL 12.00 Y
12 Emiliano Buendia NOR 11.50
13 Matt Ritchie NEW 11.50
14 Michail Antonio WHU 11.25
15 James Ward-Prowse SOU 11.00
16 John McGinn AVL 10.50
17 Will Hughes WAT 10.00
18 Jack Grealish AVL 9.50
19 Jordan Henderson LIV 9.50 Y
20 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain LIV 9.25 Y
21 Ondrej Duda NOR 9.00
22 Stuart Armstrong SOU 9.00
23 Abdoulaye Doucoure WAT 8.75
24 Demarai Gray LEI 8.50 Y
25 Scott McTominay MUN 8.50 Y
26 Moussa Sissoko TOT 8.25
27 David Brooks BOU 8.00
28 Declan Rice WHU 8.00
29 Giovani Lo Celso TOT 8.00
30 N’Golo Kante CHE 8.00
31 Wilfred Ndidi LEI 7.75 Y
32 Ashley Westwood BUR 7.50
33 Ilkay Gundogan MCI 7.50
34 Mark Noble WHU 7.50
35 Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg SOU 7.50
36 Erik Lamela TOT 7.25
37 Tomas Soucek WHU 7.25
38 Miguel Almiron NEW 7.00
39 Rodrigo MCI 7.00
40 Ruben Neves WOL 7.00 Y
41 Tom Davies EVE 7.00 Y
42 Alex Iwobi EVE 6.75 Y
43 Mateo Kovacic CHE 6.75
44 Trezeguet AVL 6.75
45 Aaron Mooy BHA 6.50
46 Alexander Tettey NOR 6.50
47 Dennis Praet LEI 6.50 Y
48 Etienne Capoue WAT 6.50
49 Onel Hernandez NOR 6.50
50 Yves Bissouma BHA 6.50
51 Fabinho LIV 6.25 Y
52 Isaac Hayden NEW 6.25
53 James McArthur CRY 6.25
54 Luka Milivojevic CRY 6.25
55 Solly March BHA 6.25
56 Kenny McLean NOR 6.20
57 Andre Gomes EVE 6.00 Y
58 Manuel Lanzini WHU 6.00
59 Jorginho CHE 5.75
60 Junior Stanislas BOU 5.75
61 Jack Cork BUR 5.50
62 Jefferson Lerma BOU 5.50
63 Josh Brownhill BUR 5.50
64 Keinan Davis AVL 5.50
65 Mesut Ozil ARS 5.50
66 Douglas Luiz AVL 5.25
67 Lewis Cook BOU 5.25
68 Cheikhou Kouyate CRY 5.00
69 Eric Dier TOT 5.00
70 Marvelous Nakamba AVL 5.00
71 Romain Saiss WOL 5.00 Y
72 Dani Ceballos ARS 4.75
73 Harry Wilson BOU 4.75
74 Oliver Norwood SHU 4.75
75 Harvey Barnes LEI 4.50
76 John Fleck SHU 4.50
77 Pascal Gross BHA 4.50
78 Andros Townsend CRY 4.25
79 Bernardo Silva MCI 4.25
80 Fernandinho MCI 4.25
81 Leandro Trossard BHA 4.25
82 Mason Mount CHE 4.25
83 Conor Hourihane AVL 4.00
84 Dale Stephens BHA 4.00
85 Georginio Wijnaldum LIV 4.00
86 Phil Foden MCI 4.00
87 Philip Billing BOU 4.00
88 Tanguy Ndombele TOT 4.00
89 Youri Tielemans LEI 4.00
90 Ross Barkley CHE 3.75
91 Daniel Podence WOL 3.50
92 Alexis Mac Allister BHA 3.00
93 Anwar El Ghazi AVL 3.00
94 Nabil Bentaleb NEW 3.00
95 Nemanja Matic MUN 3.00
96 Oriol Romeu SOU 3.00
97 Tom Cleverley WAT 3.00
98 Dan Gosling BOU 2.50
99 David Silva MCI 2.50
100 Diogo Jota WOL 2.50
101 Jack Wilshere WHU 2.50
102 Jota AVL 2.50
103 Juan Mata MUN 2.50
104 Mario Vrancic NOR 2.50
105 Sander Berge SHU 2.50
106 Todd Cantwell NOR 2.50
107 Valentino Lazaro NEW 2.50
108 Ainsley Maitland-Niles ARS 2.25
109 Felipe Anderson WHU 2.25
110 Sofiane Boufal SOU 2.25
111 Aaron Lennon BUR 2.00
112 Bernard EVE 2.00
113 Davy Propper BHA 2.00
114 Fred MUN 2.00
115 Gabriel Martinelli ARS 2.00
116 Hamza Choudhury LEI 2.00
117 Ignacio Pussetto WAT 2.00
118 Marc Albrighton LEI 2.00
119 Marco Stiepermann NOR 2.00
120 Naby Keita LIV 2.00
121 Pablo Fornals WHU 2.00
122 Roberto Pereyra WAT 2.00
123 Ruben Loftus-Cheek CHE 2.00
124 Ryan Sessegnon TOT 2.00
125 Ben Osborn SHU 1.75
126 James McCarthy CRY 1.75
127 Nathaniel Chalobah WAT 1.75
128 Robbie Brady BUR 1.75
129 Anthony Gordon EVE 1.50
130 Leander Dendoncker WOL 1.50
131 Matteo Guendouzi ARS 1.50
132 Ben Godfrey NOR 1.25
133 Daniel James MUN 1.25
134 Gedson Fernandes TOT 1.25
135 Harry Winks TOT 1.00
136 Joseph Willock ARS 1.00
137 Luke Freeman SHU 1.00
138 Max Meyer CRY 1.00
139 Morgan Gibbs-White WOL 1.00
140 Jeff Hendrick BUR 0.50
141 Jairo Riedewald CRY 0.25

 

Forwards

FORWARDS Team Proj.
1 Sadio Mane LIV 20.00
2 Adama Traore WOL 19.00
3 Richarlison EVE 19.00
4 Jamie Vardy LEI 18.25
5 Allan Saint-Maximin NEW 18.00
6 Raul Jimenez WOL 17.75
7 Danny Ings SOU 17.00
8 Son Heung-Min TOT 16.75
9 Anthony Martial MUN 16.50
10 Marcus Rashford MUN 16.50
11 Ismaila Sarr WAT 15.75
12 Harry Kane TOT 15.00
13 Michael Obafemi SOU 14.00
14 Roberto Firmino LIV 14.00
15 Dominic Calvert-Lewin EVE 13.75
16 Dwight McNeil BUR 13.25
17 Mohamed Salah LIV 13.00
18 Raheem Sterling MCI 12.75
19 Mason Greenwood MUN 12.00
20 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ARS 11.50
21 Matej Vydra BUR 11.25
22 Joelinton NEW 11.00
23 Troy Deeney WAT 11.00
24 Ayoze Perez LEI 9.75
25 Jarrod Bowen WHU 9.75
26 Pedro Neto WOL 9.50
27 Jay Rodriguez BUR 9.25
28 Gabriel Jesus MCI 9.00
29 Steven Bergwijn TOT 9.00
30 Nicolas Pepe ARS 8.75
31 Willian CHE 7.75
32 Christian Benteke CRY 7.00
33 Danny Welbeck WAT 7.00
34 Oliver McBurnie SHU 6.75
35 Wilfried Zaha CRY 6.50
36 Andriy Yarmolenko WHU 6.25
37 Mbwana Samatta AVL 6.00
38 Aaron Connolly BHA 5.75
39 Jordan Ayew CRY 5.50
40 Teemu Pukki NOR 5.50
41 Eddie Nketiah ARS 5.25
42 Tammy Abraham CHE 5.00
43 Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld BOU 4.50
44 Bukayo Saka ARS 4.50
45 Alexandre Lacazette ARS 4.00
46 Andy Carroll NEW 4.00
47 Olivier Giroud CHE 4.00
48 Kelechi Iheanacho LEI 3.75
49 Lys Mousset SHU 3.75
50 Josip Drmic NOR 3.00
51 Leroy Sane MCI 3.00
52 Callum Wilson BOU 2.25
53 Neal Maupay BHA 2.25
54 Odion Ighalo MUN 2.25
55 Richairo Zivkovic SHU 2.25
56 Dwight Gayle NEW 2.00
57 Moise Kean EVE 2.00
58 Adam Idah NOR 1.50
59 Dominic Solanke BOU 1.50
60 Takumi Minamino LIV 1.50
61 Divock Origi LIV 1.25
62 William Smallbone SOU 1.25
63 Albian Ajeti WHU 1.00
64 Billy Sharp SHU 1.00
65 Glenn Murray BHA 1.00
66 Che Adams SOU 0.50

 

The EPL Projections Process

Players rated by PremierInjuries.com as having a 50% chance of playing (or lower) were assumed to not have any involvement in a game. Scores are not given for players who are not thought to play (e.g. Hudson-Odoi in gameweek 30). Bookmakers odds were used as a basis for the match result, with individual intuition then added to predict a score. Substitutions were projected based on this match result, so, for example, if it was predicted that Tottenham would be losing/lose to Manchester United then the prediction of Jose Mourinho’s substitutes would reflect this and be different than if it was predicted that Tottenham would be beating/beat Manchester United.

Average values for each relevant stat were calculated and then adjusted based on the upcoming fixture. As a rudimentary check on the validity of scores, projected scores as a sum for all players, and then for each position, were calculated and compared with previous weeks to ensure similarity. That said, it is all but impossible and illogical to predict extreme outcomes, and hence, no player actually exceeds a score of 18 points in a single game (even though clearly there will be some that do). Likewise, there will undoubtedly be a few surprise results that are not built into the projections.

The prediction of a clean sheet is arguably the most difficult and contentious aspect of projections (see the Bournemouth and Crystal Palace defenders so high up the list!), and therefore may need amending in the future.

 

Wondering who the best current Draft Premier League players are to target? Look no further than our Top 150 Player Rankings!

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Are these EPL Projections something you’d like to see going forward? Let Luke know about it in the comments below.


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