This weekend, we finally have college football games! With the first contests just days away, it’s time to dive into two carefully selected CFB bets for August 24. To confidently make these picks, I have thoroughly researched all the mentioned teams’ performances from last year and previewed how they look this year.
Let’s get on with it. Here they are:
CFB Bets to Make on the First Weekend of College Football
SMU vs Nevada: SMU to cover -25.5 (-110)
This is just another game where the Mustangs will clobber a bad team.
After researching Nevada’s 2023 team stats and 2024 team projections, I found three comparable teams that SMU played last year. They destroyed them all. SMU defeated Tusla, Navy and Temple last season by at least 45 points (their closest game of those three was the one vs Navy, which they won 59-14.
The Wolf Pack managed just 17.33 points per game (PPG), a figure that pales in comparison to the 20.7 PPG averaged by Tulsa, Navy, and Temple. On the defensive side, Nevada allowed 33.42 points per game, slightly worse than the 30.64 PPG given up by the trio of teams SMU beat up on.
When it comes to offensive production, Nevada’s 2023 squad averaged only 300 yards per game, significantly lower than the 353 yards averaged by Tulsa, Navy, and Temple. Additionally, Nevada’s defense allowed opponents to convert on 43.63% of third and fourth down attempts, which is marginally worse than the 42.46% conversion rate against SMU’s previous victims.
SMU was an offensive powerhouse in 2023, scoring 38.71 PPG while allowing just 17.79 PPG. This stark difference between their offensive and defensive production suggests that they have the ability to both overwhelm Nevada’s defense and stifle their offense. What’s more, SMU is expected to be even better in 2024, returning many of their key starters, including quarterback Preston Stone. In contrast, Nevada is ranked 120th in preseason projections, a position that is worse than any of Tulsa, Navy, or Temple last year.
Given the statistical evidence and SMU’s dominant performances against teams of a similar or better caliber than Nevada, it’s reasonable to expect that SMU will not only win but do so in a dominant manner. Although a line of -27.5 seems steep, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Mustangs won this game by 40.
Florida State vs Georgia Tech: u 55.5 (-110)
The premier game on the first Saturday of college football won’t be as high-scoring as many fans may think.
Florida State’s defense was among the nation’s best last season, ranking sixth in scoring defense allowing only 15.9 points per game. Defensive coordinator Adam Fuller has retained a strong core of players and added new talent through the transfer portal, ensuring that the Seminoles will continue to be a formidable force on that side of the ball. Georgia Tech, which ranked 43rd last year in scoring offense (29.7), did not do much to improve. Their mediocre offense is unlikely to find much success against such a well-drilled and dominant defense.
On the offensive side, Florida State faces significant challenges. The team lost key playmakers like Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, and Johnny Wilson to the NFL, leaving them with a void in offensive firepower.
Their newly transferred quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, while having shown flashes of brilliance at Oregon State, remains inconsistent, particularly with his accuracy and touch in the passing game. His history of erratic ball placement and struggles in dropback situations raises concerns about the Seminoles’ ability to consistently move the ball and score points.
This game will be a relatively low-scoring affair on a neutral field as it is set to take place in Ireland. Expect the Seminoles to win, but only scoring around 30 points.