In November 2019, I had the privilege of participating in Ray Butler’s (@Prospects365) P365 Experts’ Dynasty League. In the twenty-first round (415th overall pick), I happily selected Ross Stripling. Fast forward eight months and Stripling’s value has skyrocketed without throwing a pitch. Why? Our nemesis, COVID-19, delayed the start of the season and some players opted out of the 2020 season to protect their health. Fortunately for Stripling, one of those players is his teammate, David Price. Just a few days ago, Dodgers’ manager, Dave Roberts, officially named Ross Stripling as the team’s No. 5 starter. In light of this news, I felt obligated to do a deep dive, so let’s get to it.
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Breaking Down Ross Stripling
In 2019, Ross Stripling was the quintessential swingman — as a starter, he hurled 70 IP (3.42 xFIP) and as a reliever, 20.2 IP (4.12 xFIP). In those 90.2 IP, he finished with a 3.47 ERA, 93 strikeouts and chipped in four wins. As a starter, Stripling had a 20.2 K-BB%, which would’ve placed him 15th among all qualified starters and he generated an excellent 53.6% ground ball rate. Moreover, his ability to keep the ball on the ground contributed to an excellent 17.9% soft contact rate. For the second consecutive season, Stripling continued to get ahead of hitters by throwing a first-pitch strike at a 68.7% rate. Had he qualified, his F-Strike% would’ve ranked fourth among all starting pitchers. Overall, he finished the 2019 season with a .277 xwOBA, which was 17th best among all starting pitchers. The Stripling tease is over and it’s time to undress his pitches.
ARSENAL
Generally, Ross Stripling’s four-seam slowball (I’m hilarious) doesn’t give you the warm and fuzzies. Thankfully, in 2018, Dodgers’ General Manager, Andrew Friedman, encouraged Stripling to throw the high fastball to complement his excellent curveball (more on that later). That adjustment has completely altered the trajectory of his career. In 2019, he continued that trend while lowering his four-seam usage by 3.3 percentage points — clearly, he gets it. Lastly, he tends to lean on this pitch when he needs a strike.
“A thing of beauty is a joy forever.” Was John Keats referencing Ross Stripling’s curveball? Of course! That’s a stupid question, James. If the table below wasn’t a clue — Stripling’s 12-to-6 curveball is excellent. He’s able to consistently throw it in the bottom of the zone and its vertical movement (-9) leaves many hitters feeling impotent as they feebly swing and miss. Additionally, this pitch seduces batters to pound the ball into the ground at a very high rate. From 2018 to 2019, Strip increased his curveball usage by 6.8 percentage points. Ross Stripling knows this pitch is the lynchpin to his success and he should continue to lean on it, which ought to lead to sustainable success.
Ross Stripling’s third most used pitch isn’t as sexy as his curveball, but its movement is similar, which causes hitters to struggle distinguishing between the two pitches. It’s tempting to simply call it a “show me” pitch, but it yields soft contact and a 59.5% ground ball rate. Say it with me, “Ground balls are good.” Anyways, Stripling does a great job of sequencing and effectively picks his spots with this pitch.
“Chicken Strip’s” changeup is absolutely filthy. It has an 11-to-5 vertical drop that completely falls off the table. It’s especially effective versus lefty batters and overall, it had a -4 launch angle. Essentially, batters were unable to barrel this pitch. Its chase rate was an absurd 44%. As I said, “Absolutely filthy.” Another reason for this pitch’s success is Stripling’s ability to tunnel it off his fastball. Anxious hitters gear up for his so-so fastball, but are often left helpless when he throws the change piece.
2020 OUTLOOK
Since Roberts officially named him the Dodgers’ No. 5 starter on July 20, Ross Stripling’s NFBC ADP has vaulted up 100 spots. While your drafts have likely concluded, that jump in ADP is completely justified. Why? As previously mentioned, he has two great secondary offerings and does a fine job with his command, specifically, in locating his fastball. Moreover, the Dodgers do an excellent job of getting the most out of their pitchers via data such as tunneling, sequencing, and usage. As a starter, I would expect his strikeouts to be slightly suppressed. Regardless, he has an opportunity to make a huge fantasy impact on this shortened season. Tonight, his 2020 debut is against the Giants, and here’s hoping he doesn’t make me look silly. Speaking of silly, peep @PitchingNinja’s GIF of Ross Stripling’s gorgeous curveball. “A thing of beauty is a joy forever.”
Projection: 46 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 43 K
Ross Stripling, Beautiful 80mph Knuckle Curve. 😍 pic.twitter.com/2hOKGgG57a
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2019
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Wow, what a fantastic write up. Good job, James!
Thank you!