With the lucky few moving onto the fantasy playoffs and the trade deadline past in the vast majority of leagues, we’ll review the recommended dynasty buys and sells from 2020 and see whether they’re still good deals now or mistakes in retrospect.
We’ll revisit and evaluate the recommended dynasty buys and sells from the first half of the regular season in Part 1 of this series, starting with the players named in the initial edition of this article published prior to Week 2 and going all the way through the Week 7 dynasty buys and sells. And best of luck to all those teams in the fantasy playoffs!
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Week 2 to Week 7 – Dynasty Buys
Week 2 ⇔
Josh Jacobs and Benny Snell were the recommended Week 2 dynasty buys. Jacobs’s involvement in the passing game has waned since his season-high six targets in Week 1. As a result, he’s failed to reach that elite tier of dynasty running back, but even so, he’s the no. 8 running back in PPR scoring through 13 games despite missing last week’s matchup due to an ankle injury.
As for Snell, he’s shown flashes in limited action and in the games that James Conner has missed this year, but the true test is to come in the offseason to see whether Pittsburgh parts ways with Conner and whether they add more bodies to this backfield in his stead. The jury is still out on Snell, so the Week 2 dynasty buys were worth their acquisition prices but still a “wait and see” situation.
Week 3 ⇓
Leonard Fournette and Drew Sample were the recommended Week 3 dynasty buys. Fournette has continued to split snaps with Ronald Jones for most of the year, and Jones seems like the more explosive option down the stretch, so we’ll see where Fournette lands in the coming offseason. I mentioned that Fournette was a risk-reward buy, and it would seem that this one did not pan out.
Sample too has been a non-factor in fantasy, even when Joe Burrow was still healthy and starting in Cincinnati earlier this season. This call didn’t work out either, though Sample was a cheap or even free acquisition off waivers who was low-risk with potentially high reward. Week 3’s dynasty buys definitely fell through and were poor recommendations, though hopefully neither cost too much to acquire if you did so.
Week 4 ⇔
Preston Williams and Jimmy Garoppolo were the recommended Week 4 dynasty buys. Williams showed flashes of his former self but was generally inconsistent even prior to suffering a foot injury in Week 9, which has left him on injured reserve since.
Likewise, Garoppolo was hampered by a high ankle sprain and attempted to play through it for a few games midseason only to re-injure the ankle and land on injured reserve. With both Williams and Garoppolo out due to injuries, they certainly didn’t help contending dynasty teams, but injuries are generally unpredictable, so I’ll chalk this one up as a wash with the jury still out on both players going forward.
Week 5 ⇑
Robby Anderson and Justin Herbert were the recommended Week 5 dynasty buys. Anderson is currently the no. 17 wide receiver in PPR formats through 13 weeks and leads the Panthers in targets by a fair margin. He’s been incredibly consistent as a fantasy WR2 with just two games of fewer than 10 PPR points.
Herbert too has been productive. He’s the no. 8 quarterback in fantasy through 13 weeks despite not having played in Week 1, and Herbert and has established himself as one of the best young quarterback prospects in the league with immense potential. The recommended dynasty buys in Week 5 were a clear win in my book, as both have been productive and have appreciated in value, particularly Herbert.
Week 6 ⇑
David Montgomery and Mecole Hardman were the recommended Week 6 dynasty buys. As mentioned, many weren’t properly accounting for Montgomery’s newfound workhorse role following Tarik Cohen‘s season-ending injury. Montgomery is currently the no. 11 running back in PPR scoring, and with easy rushing matchups against Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville upcoming in the fantasy playoffs, he could be a league winner.
Hardman has remained an inconsistent boom-or-bust play even with Sammy Watkins having missed time this season. However, I remain bullish on Hardman’s prospects long-term as he continues to develop, especially with Watkins and Demarcus Robinson‘s contracts both expiring after this season. I consider Week 6’s recommended dynasty buys a success based on Montgomery’s performance and playoff expectations, though Hardman remains in the “wait and see” category.
Week 7 ⇔
Courtland Sutton and Jordan Akins were the recommended Week 7 dynasty buys. The recommendation on Sutton was due to Drew Lock‘s willingness to throw deep, which would bode well for Sutton’s return in 2021. Indeed, Lock is 10th in the league in deep ball attempts, though his 24 percent deep ball completion rate remains lacking.
Like Akins, the recommendation was for long-term profit and potential. Akins’s usage is trending up in the second half of the year since his return from injury, and Will Fuller is a free agent after this year and unlikely to return. The new Texans’ general manager, whoever that may be, could also choose to cut one or both of Brandin Cooks and Darren Fells with few salary cap implications. Akins remains a cheap buy with high upside based on potential target volume in 2021. Overall, Week 7 also remains in the “wait and see” category.
Week 2 to Week 7 – Dynasty Sells
Week 2 ⇔
Will Fuller and Corey Davis were the recommended Week 2 dynasty sells. Through 12 weeks, Fuller was the no. 8 wide receiver in PPR scoring. The worry with Fuller was health, and it would seem that he mitigated his injury risk with PED usage. This one is a wash, as Fuller was undoubtedly a contributor when on the field for dynasty teams looking to contend, but he won’t be a factor for the fantasy playoffs, and it remains to be seen whether he can stay healthy on his in 2021 and beyond. He remains a sell candidate.
Davis was a miss, as he’s been very productive, especially with Jonnu Smith dealing with a knee injury these last few weeks. In fact, Davis is the no. 26 wide receiver on the year thus far, so hopefully you ignored my recommendation to sell for a second-round rookie pick, though that wouldn’t have been a terrible return for rebuilding teams. Overall, both Fuller and Davis outperformed expectations and were probably better holds than sell candidates, particularly Davis.
Week 3 ⇑
Darrell Henderson and Jordan Reed were the recommended Week 3 dynasty sells. As mentioned, with Cam Akers healthy and still splitting snaps with Malcolm Brown as well, none of the three have been more than touchdown-dependent flex plays. Henderson wasn’t a must-sell, but a mid-second rookie pick return would’ve been welcome.
Immediately following the concerns voiced in the Week 3 article about Reed staying healthy, he proceeded to miss five games with a knee injury. With George Kittle out, Reed has had some production, but hopefully contending teams have more reliable options at tight end than Reed. The best time to sell was when recommended right after his two-touchdown game against the Jets in Week 2. I’ll take the Week 3 recommended sells as a win.
Week 4 ⇑
Brandon Aiyuk and Emmanuel Sanders were the recommended Week 4 dynasty sells. Aiyuk is the no. 20 wide receiver in PPR points per game, but it’s worth noting that his per-game targets and PPR points have been 8.8 and 17.0 in games where Deebo Samuel has been out, respectively, and these totals dipped to 6.0 and 13.6, respectively, when Samuel has been active. He could be a league winner, but long-term, I maintain my stance on selling Aiyuk for a mid first-round rookie pick despite his good performances this season.
Sanders was a fairly easy call, and hopefully teams were able to capitalize on Sanders’s production while Michael Thomas was out. Since Thomas’s return in Week 9, Sanders has just two games of double digit scoring in PPR formats. He’s unlikely to help contending teams outside of super deep leagues. I consider the Week 4 recommended sells as hits as well.
Week 5 ⇓
Ronald Jones and Robert Tonyan were the recommended Week 5 dynasty sells. Jones is the no. 12 running back in PPR scoring through 13 games, and he could be a league winner if Bruce Arians stays true to his word and starts feeding Jones more down the stretch.
Tonyan has also exceeded expectations as the no. 4 tight end on the year so far. Even excluding his early blowup games when Aaron Rodgers had no one else to throw to, Tonyan has been the no. 7 tight end in PPR formats from Week 6 onward and is a serviceable, albeit touchdown-dependent, TE1. Week 5’s recommended dynasty sells were a clear miss. Mea culpa.
Week 6 ⇑
Todd Gurley and T.Y. Hilton were the recommended Week 6 dynasty sells. Gurley was a sell based on his overachieving touchdown rate and long-term concerns over the arthritic condition in his knee. He somehow maintained his scoring rate through nine games, but since then, his workload has fallen dramatically due to…issues with his arthritic knee.
Hilton’s production has bounced back over the last couple of games, but it remains to be seen whether his target volume will be consistent enough to grant him more than boom-or-bust flex status. That said, he’s 31 years old and on the final year of his current contract with the Colts, so Hilton’s fantasy value faces a tenuous future. I consider the recommended dynasty sells in Week 6 a win.
Week 7 ⇑
Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Green were the recommended Week 7 dynasty sells. Lindsay was fresh off his 100-yard rushing performance against New England, and he was a recommended sell due to lack of workload in a committee. Outside of that Week 6 game where Melvin Gordon was out, Lindsay has averaged just 34 percent of the offensive snaps and has never reached more than 50 percent. His long-term value is in flux as well as he hits free agency with a large 2021 free agent class of running backs.
The recommendation on Green was to pounce on an opportunity to sell a fading veteran wide receiver before he lost all value. That window has since closed, as Green was mostly unproductive even when Joe Burrow was in the lineup, and he’s recorded four games without a single catch this year. Hopefully dynasty GMs were able to move Green for anything they could. I’d say Week 7’s recommended sells were a resounding success.
Looking Back
With hindsight, some players massively exceeded expectations while others predictably disappointed. Dynasty trades are always a measure of risk vs. reward, as no one knows the future. However, I firmly believe that the dynasty community as a whole should be more willing to react and make quick calls on players in-season after big games or disappointing performances. The worst thing to do is to underreact and do nothing to attempt to improve a dynasty roster from week to week.
For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle all year round.
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