Last week, I told you about the potential of the Reds offense. On Monday, they scored 14 runs. It’s those kinds of trends we’re trying to predict again for your fantasy baseball offensive players. We are back with the Hitting Planner, a matchup-focused look into the hitters and lineups you can Pick (start and trust given their schedule the upcoming week) or Fade (consider sitting, avoiding on the waiver wire due to a rough upcoming week of matchups). All players mentioned will generally be around the threshold of either ownership or starting/sitting for your fantasy team.
As usual, I’ll point out the teams and corresponding players with noticeably poor matchups (the Fades) and noticeably great matchups (the Picks).
Let’s get started with Week 7 (May 17 — May 23). For each team, we will note their opponents in italics, including the number of games they play that week. For this week, stats are up-to-date as of the end of Friday night games.
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Week 7 Hitting Planner
Fades: Stay Away
Philadelphia Phillies
Opponents: MIA (3), BOS (3)
The Phillies have had their highs on offense this season but with Bryce Harper leaving Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury, there’s no guarantee the Phillies will have their superstar run-producer in the lineup throughout the week. To make matters worse, they get no help with matchups.
The Phillies start their week facing a Marlins team whose bullpen has been one of the deepest in baseball in 2021. To pile on the bad news for Philadelphia, they are scheduled to face the Marlins’ top two starters — rising superstar Trevor Rogers and proven ace Sandy Alcantara. The Phillies finish the week with a 3-game set against the Boston Red Sox, whose pitching staff has been on fire recently. As a team, the Red Sox are around middle-of-the-pack in ERA, xFIP, and SIERA on the season, but will likely be lined up to send Nathan Eovaldi (0 home runs allowed on the season) and Eduardo Rodriguez (current ace of the staff) to the mound against Philadelphia. Fade the Phillies bats.
Cincinnati Reds
Opponents: SF (4), MIL (3)
The Cincinnati Reds have one of the most intriguing offenses in baseball with depth and ceiling; it’s why they make so many appearances on the Hitting Planner pieces. But this fade is pretty straight-forwards—it’s all about the tough matchups.
The Giants and the Brewers both rank in the top 10 in MLB this season in ERA, xFIP, and SIERA as pitching staffs. Granted, the Reds are going to be playing all 7 games in their hitter-friendly home, Great American Ball Park. However, the arduous task of facing Anthony DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, and the deep Brewers pitching staff is no encouragement to start your low-in-the-order Cincinnati Reds.
Texas Rangers
Opponents: NYY (4), HOU (3)
The Rangers definitely have some high-upside, powerful bats that are owned across most fantasy baseball leagues. The issue is they won’t have it easy this week in their 7-game slate — and that’s why I’m here. Not only do the Yankees and Astros both own high-tier pitching staffs but will likely send out their best looking to torture the Rangers this coming week.
The four-game set against the Yankees will feature AL Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole and highly-touted offseason acquisitions, Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber. The series at the end of the week against the Astros will feature long-time Astro Lance McCullers Jr. and the high-strikeout nasty stuff of 24-year-old Cristian Javier. Fade all the Rangers unless you are compelled to start the big boys like Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Nate Lowe due to depth in your league.
Picks: Buy In
Detroit Tigers
Opponents: SEA (3), KCR (3)
The Tigers only play six games this week and they aren’t good. That being said, winning your fantasy league is about finding the matchups, taking advantage, and not being too emotionally attached. If the Tigers bats are going to get the job done ever, it’s this coming week.
The Mariners and Royals both rank bottom-11 among all pitching staffs in MLB, xFIP, and SIERA on the season. With the Tigers heating up a bit as a team recently, buy into their bats for these upcoming series, most of whom might not even be owned in your league at the moment! Start Detroit’s leading fantasy player this season, Robbie Grossman. Keep an eye on Jeimer Candelario‘s health and start him if he’s on the field. Start Niko Goodrum who can serve multiple infield spots. And go back to the legend, Akil Baddoo!
Cleveland Indians
Opponents: LAA (3), MIN (3)
It’s obvious that you should start perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez no matter what. And in most leagues where power serves value, you better start Franmil Reyes. But there’s also solid value in Cesar Hernandez‘s contact bat and the streaky outfield bats of Eddie Rosario and Josh Naylor.
The Angels are wasting MVP seasons from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani because of their god-awful pitching and the Twins are simply disappointing their entire fanbase by looking like a non-playoff team on the mound. Additionally, it’s possible neither team will start all of their top arms against Cleveland as the Twins, in particular, will send out Kenta Maeda, J.A. Happ, and Michael Pineda.
Washington Nationals
Opponents: CHC (4), BAL (3)
The Nationals have been a wild card on offense this season but this is an opportunity to heat up even further against the below-average, low-strikeout pitching staffs of the Cubs and the Orioles for a full 7-game slate this coming week. Obviously, you’re penciling in superstars Trea Turner and Juan Soto every day that they play. But ride the hot bat of veteran Josh Harrison and get ready for one of the best narratives of the week — Kyle Schwarber facing his former team. And did you know that the Nationals also have one of the hottest offensive catchers in the game right now? With multiple fantasy-relevant catchers on the IL right now, go get Yan Gomes before you regret missing out!
Who’s been the best catcher in @MLB the first two weeks of May?
Yan Gomes.#NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/4T3V8OGWjf
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 15, 2021
San Diego Padres
Opponents: COL (3), SEA (3)
The San Diego Padres are a World Series contender because there isn’t much they do poorly. They have faced roadblocks, however, including a current barrage of COVID-19 list stints for their big bats. You can still take advantage of the juicy matchups, however. The Rockies are simply terrible on the mound at all spots. And the Mariners have now cooled off and are below average in every respect as a pitching staff as of late. In the absence of several regular starters, the Padres will rely heavily on their top-of-the-order bats, Manny Machado and Trent Grisham, but should also get production from fantasy stud Jake Cronenworth, veteran Tommy Pham, and even recent acquisitions Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, and Victor Caratini. Fire them all up if you have the chance to.
For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.
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