Who wants to talk about quarterbacks and running backs when you can talk about defenses and special teams (D/ST) units! If you’re like me, you probably are changing your team defense on a weekly basis, looking for the optimal matchup to exploit. Well, that’s exactly what I am hoping to accomplish today. Today, let us take a look at Week 12 D/ST rankings!
I’ll go through my process of evaluating defenses, before getting into the specifics for the week! Who is going to be the 30-point defense this week? Let us find out!
First, we need to analyze how effective each D/ST unit has been for fantasy purposes this year. However, this doesn’t come from looking at previous fantasy points. See, turnovers (interceptions and fumbles) can be rather unstable on a week-to-week basis, making them difficult to rely on. Thus, to identify who the top defenses have been, we need to take that out of the equation.
This leads me to my new implied points statistic for D/ST units. Based on the number of points they have allowed and the sacks they’ve totaled up, we can see how many points a D/ST unit SHOULD be averaging per week:
More fantasy football fun for Week 12: Waiver Wire | FAAB Guide | Start & Sit | Loves & Hates | Stock Watch | Sleepers & Streamers | D/ST Streamers
Implied Points (Weeks 1-11)
| Defense | Difference | Implied Points | Fantasy PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1.9790 | 9.0210 | 11.0 |
| ARI | 0.4802 | 8.3198 | 8.8 |
| DEN | -1.1509 | 8.0509 | 6.9 |
| CAR | -0.7209 | 7.9209 | 7.2 |
| LAR | -1.5112 | 7.6112 | 6.1 |
| BUF | 2.2468 | 7.5532 | 9.8 |
| GB | -0.6819 | 7.4819 | 6.8 |
| CIN | -1.7400 | 7.3400 | 5.6 |
| PIT | -1.3730 | 7.1730 | 5.8 |
| NO | 0.8131 | 6.8869 | 7.7 |
| CHI | -0.3850 | 6.8850 | 6.5 |
| TB | 1.4284 | 6.8716 | 8.3 |
| MIN | 0.1755 | 6.8245 | 7.0 |
| DAL | 2.5033 | 6.7967 | 9.3 |
| CLE | -1.2528 | 6.7528 | 5.5 |
| BAL | -1.7999 | 6.5999 | 4.8 |
| SF | -0.4845 | 6.5845 | 6.1 |
| IND | 1.9933 | 6.5067 | 8.5 |
| TEN | 0.4217 | 6.4783 | 6.9 |
| SEA | -1.4440 | 6.3440 | 4.9 |
| KC | -0.4852 | 5.9852 | 5.5 |
| LV | -0.9434 | 5.8434 | 4.9 |
| MIA | 0.7631 | 5.7369 | 6.5 |
| NYG | 0.4766 | 5.7234 | 6.2 |
| PHI | 1.1307 | 5.6693 | 6.8 |
| JAX | -1.1098 | 5.2098 | 4.1 |
| LAC | -1.5488 | 5.1488 | 3.6 |
| WAS | -0.6069 | 4.9069 | 4.3 |
| HOU | 0.6084 | 4.8916 | 5.5 |
| DET | -1.3604 | 4.5604 | 3.2 |
| ATL | -1.6826 | 4.1826 | 2.5 |
| NYJ | -0.9042 | 3.3042 | 2.4 |
With their recent shutout, along with the Bills allowing 38 points to the Colts, the Patriots have taken the lead as the defense with the most expected fantasy points this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals also are soaring up after an impressive performance in Seattle, while the Panthers took a step back with a tough showing against Washington. We’ll see if New England can hold onto their top spot as they face the Titans this week.
Next, it is time to dissect some other key factors. These defenses are projected by the betting markets to allow the fewest amount of points this week:
FEWEST PROJECTED POINTS ALLOWED
- Bears
- Patriots
- Texans
- Panthers
- Ravens
- Bengals
- Bills
- Eagles
Meanwhile, these defenses will face opposing quarterbacks with the highest pressure rate:
HIGHEST OPPOSING QB PRESSURE RATE
- Jets
- Washington Football Team
- Chargers
- Jaguars
- Bucs
- Browns
- Giants
- Falcons
Lastly, these defenses will face opposing quarterbacks with the highest turnover-worthy play rate:
HIGHEST OPPOSING QB TURNOVER-WORTHY PLAY RATE
- Vikings
- Bengals
- Saints
- Seahawks
- Falcons
- Patriots
- Panthers
- Ravens
Hopefully, this helps explain my thought process with regards to the D/ST rankings. Speaking of which, here they are
Week 12 D/ST Rankings
More Week 12 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Kicker | D/ST | PPR | Flex
| Rnk | Defense | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | DET |
| 2 | CAR | MIA |
| 3 | NE | TEN |
| 4 | BUF | NO |
| 5 | HOU | NYJ |
| 6 | PHI | NYG |
| 7 | CIN | PIT |
| 8 | BAL | CLE |
| 9 | MIA | CAR |
| 10 | TB | IND |
| 11 | LAC | DEN |
| 12 | SEA | WSH |
| 13 | DAL | LV |
| 14 | ATL | JAX |
| 15 | NYJ | HOU |
| 16 | WSH | SEA |
| 17 | SF | MIN |
| 18 | PIT | CIN |
| 19 | JAX | ATL |
| 20 | DET | CHI |
| 21 | NYG | PHI |
| 22 | TEN | NE |
| 23 | GB | LAR |
| 24 | DEN | LAC |
| 25 | LAR | GB |
| 26 | MIN | SF |
| 27 | CLE | BAL |
| 28 | NO | BUF |
| 28 | IND | TB |
| 28 | LV | DAL |
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