Who wants to talk about quarterbacks and running backs when you can talk about defenses and special teams (D/ST) units! If you’re like me, you probably are changing your team defense on a weekly basis, looking for the optimal matchup to exploit. Well, that’s exactly what I am hoping to accomplish today. Today, let us take a look at Week 14 D/ST rankings!
I’ll go through my process of evaluating defenses, before getting into the specifics for the week! Who is going to be the 30-point defense this week? Let us find out!
First, we need to analyze how effective each D/ST unit has been for fantasy purposes this year. However, this doesn’t come from looking at previous fantasy points. See, turnovers (interceptions and fumbles) can be rather unstable on a week-to-week basis, making them difficult to rely on. Thus, to identify who the top defenses have been, we need to take that out of the equation.
This leads me to my new implied points statistic for D/ST units. Based on the number of points they have allowed and the sacks they’ve totaled up, we can see how many points a D/ST unit SHOULD be averaging per week:
More fantasy football fun for Week 14: Waiver Wire | FAAB Guide | Start & Sit | Loves & Hates | Stock Watch | Sleepers & Streamers | D/ST Streamers
Implied Points (Weeks 1-13)
| Defense | Difference | Implied Points | Fantasy PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1.9048 | 9.0952 | 11.0 |
| ARI | 0.7582 | 8.2418 | 9.0 |
| DEN | -0.6418 | 8.1418 | 7.5 |
| BUF | 1.5222 | 7.7778 | 9.3 |
| CAR | -0.7110 | 7.5110 | 6.8 |
| LAR | -1.3858 | 7.4858 | 6.1 |
| CIN | -0.6102 | 7.4102 | 6.8 |
| GB | 0.2654 | 7.2346 | 7.5 |
| PIT | -1.5202 | 7.2202 | 5.7 |
| TB | 1.6166 | 7.1834 | 8.8 |
| BAL | -1.8074 | 6.9074 | 5.1 |
| CLE | -0.9686 | 6.8686 | 5.9 |
| IND | 2.0188 | 6.7812 | 8.8 |
| MIA | 1.0656 | 6.7344 | 7.8 |
| DAL | 3.0202 | 6.5798 | 9.6 |
| CHI | -0.7406 | 6.5406 | 5.8 |
| NO | 0.5958 | 6.5042 | 7.1 |
| SF | -0.1778 | 6.3778 | 6.2 |
| MIN | 0.7490 | 6.3510 | 7.1 |
| SEA | -0.9662 | 6.2662 | 5.3 |
| KC | 0.2466 | 6.2534 | 6.5 |
| NYG | 0.3354 | 6.1646 | 6.5 |
| TEN | 0.0870 | 6.1130 | 6.2 |
| PHI | 0.5082 | 5.9918 | 6.5 |
| LAC | -0.7094 | 5.6094 | 4.9 |
| LV | -1.1970 | 5.5970 | 4.4 |
| WAS | -1.0470 | 5.5470 | 4.5 |
| HOU | 0.1826 | 5.0174 | 5.2 |
| DET | -1.4802 | 4.8802 | 3.4 |
| JAX | -1.2674 | 4.8674 | 3.6 |
| ATL | -1.0762 | 4.2762 | 3.2 |
| NYJ | -1.1966 | 3.9966 | 2.8 |
By now, we’re getting a good idea of the defenses we can trust. Keep an eye on the Cardinals, who have defied all expectations to be the #2 defense, based on this metric. They have a difficult matchup this week against the Rams but do have the Lions left on their schedule. Furthermore, with an easy schedule coming up, keep an eye on the rise of the Buccaneers; you’ll want to add them if they are somehow available in your league.
Next, it is time to dissect some other key factors. These defenses are projected by the betting markets to allow the fewest amount of points this week:
FEWEST PROJECTED POINTS ALLOWED
- Packers
- Seahawks
- Chargers
- Broncos
- Titans
- Saints
- Chiefs
- Vikings
Meanwhile, these defenses will face opposing quarterbacks with the highest pressure rate:
HIGHEST OPPOSING QB PRESSURE RATE
- Texans
- Saints
- Lions
- Browns
- Panthers
- Titans
- Bucs
- Chiefs
Lastly, these defenses will face opposing quarterbacks with the highest turnover-worthy play rate:
HIGHEST OPPOSING QB TURNOVER-WORTHY PLAY RATE
- Saints
- Seahawks
- Vikings
- Bengals
- Browns
- Jaguars
- Bucs
- Cowboys
Hopefully, this helps explain my thought process with regards to the D/ST rankings. Speaking of which, here they are:
Week 14 D/ST Rankings
Week 14 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Kicker | D/ST | PPR | Flex
| Rnk | Defense | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | HOU |
| 2 | LAC | NYG |
| 3 | GB | CHI |
| 4 | DEN | DET |
| 5 | NO | NYJ |
| 6 | TEN | JAX |
| 7 | CAR | ATL |
| 8 | DAL | WSH |
| 9 | MIN | PIT |
| 10 | ATL | CAR |
| 11 | KC | LV |
| 12 | CLE | BAL |
| 13 | NYJ | NO |
| 14 | BAL | CLE |
| 15 | SF | CIN |
| 16 | CIN | SF |
| 17 | PIT | MIN |
| 18 | HOU | SEA |
| 19 | JAX | TEN |
| 20 | DET | DEN |
| 21 | ARI | LAR |
| 22 | TB | BUF |
| 23 | WSH | DAL |
| 24 | BUF | TB |
| 25 | LAR | ARI |
| 26 | NYG | LAC |
| 27 | CHI | GB |
| 28 | LV | KC |
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