You made it to the dreaded late rounds of your fantasy draft. You barely know any of the players’ names who are left. The ones you do know, you’ve vowed to never draft again. Judging by the fact they’re still on the board, your league-mates have made the same vow. So what do you do? You turn to FantraxHQ because we’ve got you covered! Let’s highlight three players with a consensus ADP of 10th round or later (120th or worse), that will outperform their draft position.
2022 Late Round Lottery Tickets
Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans, ADP 158 vs. Consensus ADP 176
Davis Mills is the single most disrespected quarterback of 2021. In what was an obvious tank year for the Texans, they decided to give their young QB a chance, and he showed that they can actually build around him. Mills was the QB10 over his final five starts of last season, with 9 TDs and a couple of 300+ yard passing games. Without a healthy Brandin Cooks, mind you. Just Mills and some NFL hopefuls slinging the pigskin around. Not bad. For the record, I’ve never actually said the word, “pigskin” before, but I digress.
Let’s get a little more in the weeds with the numbers so you know what you’re dealing with, and why I’m so high on him. In 13 games, he managed to rank 17th in true completion percentage (71.3%). FOURTH…in the league…in deep ball completion percentage (44.2%). SEVENTH…in the league…in clean pocket completion percentage (73.2%). With a healthy Brandin Cooks back in the mix, John Metchie added to the WR corp, and a new 1st round pick on the offensive line…expect Davis Mills to take an even bigger step this year.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders, ADP 175 vs. Consensus ADP 187
Let’s be honest: Curtis Samuel has had a horrendous start to his Washington career thus far. The former 2nd round pick only played in 5 games last year. In those games, he garnered a total of 9 targets, 6 catches, 27 yards, and 0 TDs. I’d like to say I could put up those numbers myself, but I probably couldn’t. Actually…I definitely couldn’t. Anyway, you get the point. He’s a much better player than that stat line.
The reason I’m high on Samuel this year is due to Carson Wentz’ arrival. Do I think Wentz is a good NFL QB? No. Not particularly. He does however do certain things very well, and that’s what keeps him in the league as a starter. Wentz was actually 6th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.3%, while being 4th in the league in catchable deep ball percentage with 68.3%. He was also 15th in the league in red zone completion percentage at 57.3%. Curtis Samuel has 4.31 40-yard dash speed, and he’ll be using that speed to go deep and score touchdowns in the red zone. In his 2020 season (the latest healthy one), he was 12th in the league for red zone targets, which Carson Wentz is above average with. He was also 18th in the league in contested catch rate at 62.5% which will be critical for deep balls, even if he doesn’t get separation. Expect a bounce-back year from Curtis Samuel this season.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders, ADP 132 vs. Consensus ADP 189
I know they have Josh Jacobs. I know they have Kenyan Drake. I know they have Brandon Bolden. I’m not saying you have to ignore that, but none of them have 4.4 40-yard dash speed like Zamir White does. That was good enough for 96th percentile in his draft class. As a 4th round draft pick, White isn’t guaranteed to make the team, but if/when he does, he’ll have a role. Especially considering Kenyan Drake is currently injured and Josh Jacobs has had worse production in terms of rushing yards each year, since his rookie season. The Raiders have already declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option, so the wheels are in motion for a succession plan, and White is the newer/cheaper model. I’ll admit, his time to shine is more likely to be 2023, than 2022, but should Jacobs get injured, you’re going to want some Zamir White shares.
Got a take on Bradlee’s Late Round Lottery Picks? Share it in the comments below and then head on over and check out the rest of our 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.