As NFL teams are starting to report to training camp, the fantasy football season is starting to come within reach. This is the last week of July which means football is right around the corner. At this moment, player values are mostly solid until we start seeing training camp footage and hearing news from each team. Once we do, we will undoubtedly see certain players fall and rise in fantasy football mock drafts. So, let’s get one last look at how things stand before camp kicks it into high gear.
Picking Fourth Overall in the Fourth Mock Draft
The following mock draft was completed, simulating my strategy and results for a 10-team, 1 quarterback, Points Per Reception league. The hypothetical roster consists of 3 wide receivers, 2 running backs, 1 tight end, and 1 RB/WR/TE Flex position. I drafted from the fourth overall pick in this mock draft and will make selections from different draft positions each week. For this mock draft, I will break down just the first 10 of the total 16 rounds as many Average Draft Positions, particularly for the later rounds, are bound to change once NFL training camps begin. As always, I spend my final two picks on a Defense/Special Teams and Kicker so they won’t be included as we focus on individual player analysis.
ROUND ONE
1.01- Jonathan Taylor (IND RB)
1.02- Najee Harris (PIT RB)
1.03- Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB)
1.04- Austin Ekeler (LAC RB)
1.05- Dalvin Cook (MIN RB)
1.06- Derrick Henry (TEN RB)
1.07- Cooper Kupp (LAR WR)
1.08- Justin Jefferson (MIN WR)
1.09- Joe Mixon (CIN RB)
1.10- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN WR)
MY PICK: Austin Ekeler
It’s becoming clear that in most mock drafts Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are the consensus first two overall picks. Of course, last week, I selected Najee Harris third overall. This week, he slides in as the second pick, maintaining his top-three selection status. You will likely see a variety of picks from the third selection onward by the end of August.
With the fourth pick of this mock draft, I’m riding with Austin Ekeler. He’s now 27 and this is probably the last year he has as a first-round value in redraft fantasy football leagues. So, I’m getting him where I can. Ekeler is a PPR beast who’s averaging just over five receptions per game in his last three seasons.
Additionally, Ekeler just set career highs for both rushing (12) and receiving (8) touchdowns on an obvious ascending NFL offense. Last year’s usage down the stretch does give me pause as Ekeler limited his quantity of touches, but saw the quality of his workload increase when the Chargers needed him most.
This is a tough draft spot to make a first-round selection from. There’s really no correct pick. It helps that Ekeler promotes his love for fantasy football via Instagram on a weekly basis.
ROUND TWO
2.01 – Davante Adams (LV WR)
2.02- Travis Kelce (KC TE)
2.03- D’Andre Swift (DET RB)
2.04- Stefon Diggs (BUF WR)
2.05- Leonard Fournette (TB RB)
2.06- Saquon Barkley (NYG RB)
2.07- Aaron Jones (GB RB)
2.08- Ceedee Lamb (DAL WR)
2.09- Kyle Pitts (ATL TE)
2.10- Nick Chubb (CLE RB)
MY PICK: Aaron Jones
I am three for four in drafting Aaron Jones during this mock draft series. My most recent reasoning is in the form of a bold prediction that he leads the Packers’ entire offense in receptions. Sure, Jones will split carries and touches with A.J. Dillons. However, his ability as a pass-catcher at the running back position is what I’m after here. I also think he easily finds the end zone 12 times this season, which would be his second-highest total ever.
Saquon Barkley is rightfully flying up draft boards as the season creeps closer. Similar to Aaron Jones, I think Saquon is a threat to lead the New York Giants in receptions.
Kyle Pitts’ draft capital here is a bit too rich for me. I understand he is likely due for positive touchdown regression having scored just one last year. However, Marcus Mariota isn’t enough of an on-paper quarterback upgrade for me to draft Pitts in the second round here. I am still taking Mark Andrews over him during drafts.
ROUND THREE
3.01- Mark Andrews (BAL TE)
3.02- Javonte Williams (DEN RB)
3.03- Deebo Samuel (SF WR)
3.04- Tyreek Hill (MIA WR)
3.05- Mike Evans (TB WR)
3.06- Keenan Allen (LAC WR)
3.07- Alvin Kamara (NO RB)
3.08- Josh Allen (BUF QB)
3.09- Cam Akers (LAR RB)
3.10- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB)
MY PICK: Tyreek Hill
Let’s face it. This is a make-or-break year for Dolphins quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill is on record saying it himself. So, if you’re Tua, wouldn’t you just pepper Hill with targets this season in Miami? Give the ball to your best playmaker as much as you can. It seems so obvious and simple, yet Hill is the eighth wide receiver off of the board in this mock draft.
In four seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback, Hill averaged over eight targets per game. He never averaged less than 16.2 fantasy points per game in four years with Mahomes and averaged over 20.0 in two of those four seasons. He’s Tyreek Hill! And he’s my WR1 on this mock draft team. No doubts, worries, or overthinking this pick.
ROUND FOUR
4.01- James Conner (ARI RB)
4.02- Dionte Johnson (PIT WR)
4.03- David Montgomery (CHI RB)
4.04- A.J. Brown (PHI WR)
4.05- Tee Higgins (CIN WR)
4.06- Michael Pittman, Jr. (IND WR)
4.07- D.J. Moore (CAR WR)
4.08- Breece Hall (NYJ RB)
4.09- Terry McLaurin (WSH WR)
4.10- Patrick Mahomes (KC QB)
MY PICK: D.J. Moore
For my WR2 on this mock draft team, D.J. Moore fits the mold perfectly. He always carries WR1 weekly potential, but I love his value as is for fantasy football. Moore is the only wide receiver in the last three NFL seasons to log at least 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of those seasons. Yet, he’s only scored four touchdowns exactly in those said seasons, capping his fantasy ceiling.
Moore now has Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. Say what you want about Baker, but he is the best quarterback Moore will have played with, on a consistent basis, thus far in his career. D.J. Moore is only 25 and I foresee a major scoring breakout this season.
Patrick Mahomes as a fourth-round fantasy quarterback will tempt me all the way until the start of the season. Similar to my take on Tyreek Hill one round early… it’s Patrick Mahomes! This is a dip in value from the last three fantasy football seasons. I’ll be buying the dip on occasion.
ROUND FIVE
5.01- D.K. Metcalf (SEA WR)
5.02- Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR)
5.03- Justin Herbert (LAC QB)
5.04- Brandin Cooks (HOU WR)
5.05- Allen Robinson (LAR WR)
5.06- Mike Williams (LAC WR)
5.07- Antonio Gibson (WSH WR)
5.08- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR)
5.09- Courtland Sutton (DEN WR)
5.10- Marquise Brown (ARI WR)
MY PICK: Brandin Cooks
Over the weekend, Houston Texans rookie wide receiver, John Metchie III announced his diagnosis with Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia. It goes without saying that he is not expected to play football this season. This is a good time to remind everyone reading that there is so much out there that is bigger than football. I know everyone, myself included, wishes John Metchie the best and wants to see him back playing football when, and if, it’s safe and he’s ready to do so.
While it may seem uncomfortable to discuss, this news has fantasy football implications. Metchie is a second-round NFL draft pick and, in 2022 especially, the biggest threat to veteran, Brandin Cooks’, target share. I loved Brandin Cooks for fantasy football this season already, but Metchie’s absence boosts his value that much more.
In seven non-rookie NFL seasons, Cooks has 1,000 or more receiving yards on four different teams. He will by far lead the Texans in targets this season. That, for me, gives him a slight edge over the five wide receivers taken immediately after him in this round.
ROUND SIX
6.01- Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR)
6.02- Travis Etienne (JAC RB)
6.03- George Kittle (SF TE)
6.04- Chris Godwin (TB WR)
6.05- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR)
6.06- Gabriel Davis (BUF WR)
6.07- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB)
6.08- Amari Cooper (CLE WR)
6.09- J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB)
6.10- Michael Thomas (NO WR)
MY PICK: Lamar Jackson
I have Lamar Jackson as the QB2 in my Fantrax staff quarterback ranks. The rushing ability, Lamar’s proven MVP-caliber of talent, and his value in drafts put together makes this an easy pick. On top of it all, the Ravens’ running backs bring an underwhelming ceiling to the table on one of the league’s run-heaviest teams. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both returning from season-ending ACL tears. Meanwhile, their backup, Mike Davis, is a completely average back that doesn’t threaten Lamar in the slightest as far as taking away big plays.
Every pick in this sixth round seems to carry risk. Injuries, competition for touches, you name it. Quite frankly, it was hard to justify other players here. When that happens, I more often than not begin to contemplate taking a quarterback. The fact that Lamar was there makes this a no-brainer for this mock draft team.
ROUND SEVEN
7.01- Darnell Mooney (CHI WR)
7.02- Joe Burrow (CIN QB)
7.03- Adam Theilen (MIN WR)
7.04- Rashod Bateman (BAL WR)
7.05- Jalen Hurts (PHI QB)
7.06- Darren Waller (LV TE)
7.07- Kyler Murray (ARI QB)
7.08- Hunter Renfrow (LV WR)
7.09- Drake London (ATL WR)
7.10- Daulton Schultz (DAL TE)
MY PICK: Rashod Bateman
If I’m going to draft Lamar Jackson, I might as well add his top wide receiver, right? That’s Rashod Bateman. No current Ravens wide receiver has more than two years of NFL experience. However, Bateman is the most likely to shine amongst the group with an established, though limited, rapport with Lamar.
Bateman was victim to bad luck when it comes to his rookie season last year. He not only suffered a groin injury in training camp, but when he did finally make it back, Lamar Jackson suffered an injury of his own. However, the two did connect quite often in just a handful of games together. Bateman was a top target, even with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews both on the field. In fact, Bateman and Lamar’s last game together resulted in Bateman’s first, and only, 100-yard NFL game.
If not Bateman, I love the idea of Darren Waller in the seventh round. Who says Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller can’t all succeed this fantasy football season? I think Waller’s value is down because of the Adams addition. However, bringing in Josh McDaniels at head coach, over a decade after his first trial and error in doing so, gets me excited. Don’t sleep on the Raiders.
ROUND EIGHT
8.01- Dak Prescott (DAL QB)
8.02- Tom Brady (TB QB)
8.03- Josh Jacobs (LV RB)
8.04- Elijah Moore (NYJ WR)
8.05- Russell Wilson (DEN QB)
8.06- Russell Gage (TB WR)
8.07- T.J. Hockenson (DET TE)
8.08- Elijah Mitchell (SF RB)
8.09- Juju Smith-Schuster (KC WR)
8.10- Treylon Burks (TEN WR)
MY PICK: T.J. Hockenson
So, I miss out on Waller and I fall back to Hockenson. Not bad. I like Hockenson around this time of drafts. I have an already established starting lineup and, if I don’t have a quarterback, then my bench is slowly getting built. However, pausing from the bench construction to get a positional advantage at tight end is never a bad thing. Hockenson is the last set-and-forget starting tight end available in this mock draft.
Knowing I’m back on the clock just seven picks from now helps a lot. I’m able to weigh who may, or may not, be available if I were to take Hockenson. I counted at least five running backs I was interested before selecting Hock. Due to the talent at wide receiver still available, as well, I expected at least one of the backs to be there. If not, then there’s a good chance Hockenson could have made it around, too, if I took a back here. These are the on-the-fly discussions you need to have with yourself during your fantasy football drafts.
ROUND NINE
9.01- Devin Singletary (BUF RB)
9.02- Robert Woods (TEN WR)
9.03- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR)
9.04- A.J. Dillon (GB RB)
9.05- Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR)
9.06- Miles Sanders (PHI RB)
9.07- Tyler Lockett (SEA WR)
9.08- Chase Claypool (PIT WR)
9.09- Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR)
9.10- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC RB)
My Pick: A.J. Dillon
Aaron Jones is already on this mock draft team. However, I am not viewing this A.J. Dillon selection as a “handcuff” to Jones. I believe both Green Bay backs hold starting-caliber fantasy football value. Typically, if I do select a handcuff to one of my starting running backs, I reach a round early to make sure I have them. In this case, Dillon falls to me beautifully in the ninth round, which is a round or two later than I expected.
Even if Jones dominates the touches out of the Green Bay backfield, Dillon is a low-risk, high-reward guy to have stashed on the bench. I have faith, though, that they’ll both be on the field often, and sometimes simultaneously. Dillon carries the highest ceiling of any running back left on the board.
ROUND 10
10.01- Cordarelle Patterson (ATL RB)
10.02- Chris Olave (NO RB)
10.03- Damien Harris (NE RB)
10.04- Tony Pollard (DAL RB)
10.05- Chase Edmonds (ARI RB)
10.06- Christian Kirk (JAC WR)
10.07- Kareem Hunt (CLE RB)
10.08- Allen Lazard (GB WR)
10.09- Rondale Moore (ARI WR)
10.10- Christian Watson (GB WR)
MY PICK: Kareem Hunt
Hunt is a great value for this mock draft team just inside the top-100 picks. He continues to prove stand-alone value in fantasy football, especially in PPR leagues. More importantly, if Nick Chubb goes down, we’ve seen Hunt step up as a lead back and perform in a big way. Again, not your traditional “handcuff” running back. Furthermore, I don’t even have Nick Chubb on this mock draft roster. Don’t be afraid to draft the backup to a back that’s not on your roster. In fact, I encourage it.
Let’s say you have Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. Great! That Minnesota Vikings backfield is yours. However, if Cook never misses time, Mattison is just burning a hole in your roster. If, instead, you have Kareem Hunt instead of Mattison, and Chubb goes down, all of the sudden you have two starting running backs in Cook and Hunt. Sure, there’s risk to not having Mattison, but diversifying your roster with players on different teams presents more potential.
STARTING LINEUP
QB – Lamar Jackson
RB – Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones
WR – Tyreek Hill, D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks
TE – T.J. Hockenson
FLEX – Rashod Bateman
Bench: A.J. Dillon, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny (11.04), Jakobi Meyers (12.07), DeVante Parker (13.04), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (14.07)
Mock Draft 4.0 CONCLUSION
This mock draft team is somewhat similar to last week’s (which I did not care for) with just a few minor adjustments. The important thing here is that I believe this team is an improvement upon my last mock draft which is all we can ask for.
I like my starting wide receivers but fizzled out drafting backups for the bench. Rolling the dice on both Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker, to see which is going to be Mac Jones’ go-to guy in New England, is foolish. The Patriots are without their long-time offensive coordinator, have Bill Belichick calling the shots, and often have a run-heavy approach to begin with.
What sticks out to me is my confidence in this starting lineup’s ability to win games early on in the fantasy football season. Of course we want to win, but getting ahead in the win column early is key. It prevents panic trades and waiver wire moves and gives you a calmer approach to the rest of the season outlook as a whole. Win early and win often!