As one of the conductors of the Trey Lance hype train, I feel that it’s my responsibility to address the 49ers’ newly restructured contract with Jimmy Garoppolo in detail as it pertains to Lance’s fantasy value this season. There were overreactions on both ends of the spectrum immediately following the breaking news, but the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of Garoppolo’s new deal and any changes to Lance’s fantasy projections for 2022.
What does Jimmy Garoppolo’s restructured contract mean for him and Trey Lance?
Contract Details
The 49ers made Garoppolo among the highest-paid backup quarterbacks in the league with his new contract. Garoppolo’s new deal guarantees him $6.5 million in base salary plus up to an additional $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses. His restructured contract also builds in up to a further $9 million in incentives based if he were to start games for San Francisco along with newly-added no-tag and no-trade clauses.
What This Means for the 49ers
Garoppolo’s unexpected shoulder surgery tanked trade talks this past offseason, as teams around the league were hesitant to deal even a mid-round draft pick in a strong 2023 draft class for a quarterback who might not be able to throw the ball. San Francisco’s revised deal now makes Garoppolo a more tradeable asset. Teams balked at his $25 million price tag before, as they would’ve needed to take on his bloated salary in addition to having to give up a draft pick, but Garoppolo’s new $7 million contract potentially makes him a much more palatable trade candidate. In essence, this was a savvy play by GM John Lynch.
The 49ers can still trade Garoppolo in-season if another team were to suffer a quarterback injury, and on top of that, his presence gives the team a somewhat reliable backup option in the midst of a contending season if Lance were to get injured. This deal looks to have been more as a result of Lance’s 2021 thumb injury and lack of faith in Brock Purdy or Nate Sudfeld if Lance were to miss time rather than in response to Lance’s preseason performances, which have shown some inexperience but also promise. And finally, while likely not the primary factor in this new contract, the 49ers would recoup a third-round compensatory draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if Garoppolo were to stay on the roster for the duration of this season and leave next offseason.
What This Means for Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo truthers should temper expectations. His new base salary is the same as Teddy Bridgewater‘s current one-year deal with the Dolphins. However, it benefits Garoppolo in two ways. First, Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and the surrounding talent has no doubt elevated his play during his tenure in San Francisco, and staying with the team was probably the best spot to potentially prove himself in 2022 and help him earn a larger multi-year deal with another team this coming offseason. Second, the no-trade clause gives Garoppolo more of a say in where he would play if traded, as he ideally wants a starting role for a good organization rather than being dealt without his input to a backup role elsewhere.
What This Means for Trey Lance
Make no mistake: Lance should absolutely be projected as the locked-in Week 1 starter barring injury, as the 49ers communicated their clear commitment to him as the starter prior to the completion of this new deal with Garoppolo. That said, Garoppolo’s new deal shouldn’t completely be ignored, as it provides yet another data point that shifts Lance’s range of outcomes, just not as much as many are surmising. The one scenario in which Garoppolo could start would be if Lance were to miss time due to injury.
There was always zero chance that Lance would be benched for the likes of Purdy or Sudfeld. There is admittedly a low but non-zero chance that he could get benched for Garoppolo given Garoppolo’s experience in Shanahan’s scheme. However, even in the scenario that Garoppolo were to start in place of an injured Lance, he would need to play impeccably for multiple games to cause a quarterback controversy. The real question should be: when have we ever seen exemplary play from Garoppolo for a sustained period, if at all?
Updated 2022 Fantasy Outlook for Trey Lance
The bottom line here is that this shouldn’t really shift Lance’s projections much outside of an injury occurring, which is an equal risk for any fantasy quarterback. More importantly, along with this increase in perceived risk comes with the likelihood that Lance’s ADP could slip. If his ADP were to fall between now and the start of the NFL season, Lance would become an even greater value play than he already is. Lance remains my QB7 in redraft (you can find my full top-200 PPR rankings here), as he still has a high fantasy floor and elite fantasy ceiling. Few quarterbacks have the kind of league-winning upside that Lance has, and even fewer are available at his current ADP. Buy the dip on Trey Lance.