After three long decades, the Bengals have finally gotten not only their first playoff win since 1991, but three straight playoff victories en route to Super Bowl LVI. Sunday will mark Cincinnati’s third Super Bowl appearance, though they remain the sole team among the founding teams of the NFL that has not won a Super Bowl. The Rams lost to the Patriots just three years ago in Super Bowl LIII, and coincidentally, their last Super Bowl appearance before that was also a loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI back in 2002. And while the Los Angeles Rams have yet to win a Super Bowl, the St. Louis Rams did win Super Bowl XXXIV in 2000.
Los Angeles has mortgaged their future for this Super Bowl run, having traded away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two third-round picks to acquire Matthew Stafford and Von Miller. Of course, it will all be well worth it if they can bring home the Lombardi trophy. With a Cincinnati win this weekend, Joe Burrow could become the first quarterback to ever win the Heisman Trophy, a College Football National Championship, and a Super Bowl. Will the Bengals finally hang their first Super Bowl banner, or will the Rams add a second title? Los Angeles is currently favored by 4 to 4.5 points in this game depending on the book, but let’s examine how the two teams match up and where the advantages lie.
Super Bowl LVI Prediction
Rams Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Rams’ offense ranks fourth in passing DVOA including playoffs, and Stafford has been an efficient passer, ranking third among quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) this season, which is incidentally just behind Burrow. Still, Stafford’s 17 regular season interceptions tied Trevor Lawrence for most in the league, and his 18.6 bad throw percentage tied for eighth-worst among quarterbacks. He’ll need to bring home the title to make the trade worthwhile for Los Angeles, as they’ve made it to a Super Bowl before with Jared Goff under center. Outside of the turnovers though, Stafford has been excellent, in large part due to stout pass protection and a talented receiving corps.
Los Angeles’s offensive line has ranked seventh in adjusted sack rate and led the league in pass block win rate this year, resulting in Stafford being pressured on just 16 percent of his pass attempts, which was second-lowest behind only Tom Brady. Cooper Kupp deserves much of the credit as well, as the two quickly built rapport in the offseason. Kupp is a leading candidate to win offensive player of the year, having led the league in receptions, receiving yards, yards after the catch, yards per route run, and receiving touchdowns. Odell Beckham has also become a major contributor since his midseason acquisition and has lessened the impact of having lost Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL tear.
The Bengals have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking just 20th against the pass in DVOA including playoffs. The Rams have a proficient passing attack that will be difficult to slow down, and Cincinnati’s best bet may be to play more zone coverage and rush just four, as Stafford has been the best quarterback in the league against blitzes this season. Though the Bengals’ defense has played better in the playoffs, opposing offenses have been more to blame than a sudden surge in defensive play.
Derek Carr passed for over 300 yards against them in the wild card round and was a play away from tying the game. Ryan Tannehill imploded and threw three awful interceptions, and though Cincinnati’s secondary deserves credit for those turnovers, the Titans’ passing offense ranked just 23rd on the season including playoffs. Against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, the Bengals made an excellent halftime adjustment to slow down Patrick Mahomes in the second half. Dropping eight defenders into coverage worked well to slow down Kansas City’s passing attack for the remainder of the game, and Stafford has similarly struggled against such coverage.
However, the key difference between the Chiefs and the Rams could be a willingness to adapt and pivot to their run game if and when the Bengals deploy a similar defensive strategy in Super Bowl LVI. During the regular season, the Rams’ offense ranked 12th in rushing DVOA, and their offensive line’s 4.62 adjusted line yards was sixth-best in the league. Even with Cam Akers injured for most of the year and Sony Michel missing time, Los Angeles managed to maintain an efficient run game. Sean McVay’s outside zone scheme has been a staple of the offense since he was hired as head coach, and while the Bengals’ defense has struggled to stop the run overall, they’ve been the sixth-worst in defending against outside zone runs in particular.
In three playoff games, opposing running backs have averaged 104 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry against Cincinnati. Even with the Raiders’ offensive line having committed multiple penalties, resulting in big plays being called back, Josh Jacobs rushed for 83 yards on just 13 attempts, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. And after losing defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending foot injury during the game against Las Vegas, Tennessee ran for 140 yards on the Bengals but couldn’t overcome Tannehill’s three disastrous interceptions. And in the AFC Championship game, Kansas City never adjusted to a more run-heavy offense after halftime despite the Chiefs’ running backs having combined for 101 yards on just 18 carries, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
The Rams’ rushing attack can and will take advantage if the Bengals show light fronts. Los Angeles has committed the third-fewest penalties this season and the fewest offensive holding penalties, and though they have a good passing offense, McVay has called a fairly balanced game plan. The Rams’ 59 percent pass rate ranked 14th both overall as well as in the red zone, so if Stafford can move the offense without turning the ball over and build a lead, there should be plenty of opportunities for all three of the Rams’ running backs to gash the Bengals on the ground.
Bengals Offense vs. Rams Defense
Burrow has been a prolific passer in his sophomore season, ranking second-best in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) behind only Aaron Rodgers. He also led the league in on target percentage and had the lowest bad throw percentage, pretty impressive for a quarterback just a year removed from an ACL tear. Much of Burrow’s passing production has gone to rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who has been a huge factor both on the season and in the playoffs and is a leading contender to win offensive rookie of the year. Chase has already broken the record for most receiving yards by a rookie in a season including playoffs and is the youngest player with multiple 100-yard receiving games in a single postseason.
There’s been much fanfare about Chase facing off against Jalen Ramsey, but while Ramsey is excellent in coverage and will match up against Chase in certain situations, it may be less of a factor than many expect. Chase has been nearly unguardable in one-on-one matchups down the sideline, and we saw with the long Mike Evans touchdown during the Tampa Bay game that as good as Ramsey is, he can be burned for big plays in single coverage. The Rams have been one of the most zone-heavy teams on defense this year and should continue to play a lot of zone in this game to provide safety help over the top against Chase. With that in mind, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may see more targets over the middle, and Higgins in particular has performed well against zone coverage.
But even with a few big games in the second half of the season, the Bengals’ offense ranked just 14th in passing DVOA and 19th in rushing DVOA including playoffs. And when running the ball, Cincinnati’s offensive line managed just 4.36 adjusted line yards, which was around league average. The offense transitioned to a more pass-heavy approach later in the year and in the playoffs, having averaged a 58 percent pass rate in the regular season compared to a 63 percent pass rate in the postseason. Their best bet is probably for Zac Taylor to continue being more aggressive through the air, as they have been in the playoffs and putting the ball in Burrow’s hands rather than in those of Joe Mixon.
Ultimately, the deciding factor in this game may come down to the battle in the trenches. Los Angeles’s front seven is the best in the league, having led all teams in both run stop win rate as well as in pass rush win rate this season. Cincinnati’s offensive line matches up poorly against the Rams’ pass rush, ranking just 30th in pass block win rate and 31st in adjusted sack rate. In fact, Burrow has been sacked on 8.9 percent of his pass attempts, fifth-highest among quarterbacks, and he took 51 total sacks in the regular season, which led all quarterbacks. And in the Bengals’ three playoff victories, Burrow has been sacked 12 times, including an astounding nine sacks taken alone in the game against the Titans.
Lack of pass protection has impacted Burrow’s performance greatly. Although Burrow’s 76 percent clean pocket completion rate leads the league, his completion rate drops to just 47 percent when pressured, ranking 14th among quarterbacks. He’s proven to be resilient, but Burrow may be watching much of Super Bowl LVI from on the ground. The best game plan for the Bengals may be to utilize more screen passes and scheme more short, quick passes over the middle where the Rams have struggled in coverage.
Jimmy Garoppolo found success with this formula in the 49ers’ first two wins against Los Angeles earlier this year, though the Rams adjusted in the NFC Championship game by bringing a safety down into the box and playing more single-high coverage. They won’t be able to do this against the Bengals, as Burrow is a much sharper and more aggressive downfield passer than Garoppolo, but Los Angeles may not need to either considering the gap in ability between San Francisco’s offensive line compared to Cincinnati’s offensive line.
Opponents have double-teamed Aaron Donald at a significantly higher rate than any other defensive tackle in the league this season, but it hasn’t mattered, as he again led all defensive tackles in pass rush win rate. And if Cincinnati does focus on Donald over the middle, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller can wreak havoc on the outside. Floyd ranked 15th in quarterback pressures created in 2021 with Donald coming in at 11th despite his double team rate, and Miller tied for 31st even with having missed two games due to injury. Despite his heroics, Mahomes was unable to overcome the Buccaneers’ pass rush in last year’s Super Bowl, which won at a 49 percent rate in the regular season. Burrow is electric and has found ways to evade pressure all year long, but it’s hard to see him consistently moving the offense against a Rams pass rush that has won at a 53 percent rate this year.
Special Teams
Evan McPherson’s confidence is topped only by that of Burrow, and he’s been a reliable kicker even as a rookie. However, Matt Gay actually has a better field goal and extra point percentage on the year. Including playoffs, Gay has converted 91 percent of his field-goal attempts and 98 percent of his extra-point attempts compared to McPherson’s conversion rate of 89 percent on field-goal attempts and 96 percent on extra-point attempts. Both teams have dependable kickers, and they could see their fair share of action in Super Bowl LVI, as both Taylor and McVay rank in the bottom 10 head coaches in terms of going for it on fourth down. As for kicking and punting, few are interested in deeper dives into special teams outside of Bill Belichick and hardcore football enthusiasts, but every minute detail factors in when it comes to the Super Bowl.
The Bengals and Rams have averaged similar kickoff return averages this season at 20.2 and 20.1 yards per kickoff return, respectively. However, the Rams hold a significant edge when it comes to punt returns and punting. Los Angeles has averaged 11.3 yards per punt return to the Bengals’ 7.3 yards per return, and the Rams’ punter, Johnny Hekker, continues to be one of the best in the league in both hang time and punting out of bounds, as Belichick has opined about in the past. Hekker has allowed just nine of his punts to be returned this season, and the Rams’ 6.7 yards allowed per punt return is the fourth-lowest in the league. Cincinnati’s punter, Kevin Huber, has allowed 28 of his punts to be returned, and the Bengals have allowed 8.4 yards per punt return, both metrics coming in at about league average. Special teams may not play a massive role in this game, but the Bengals could be forced to start drives from deep in their own territory more so than the Rams, making scoring an even tougher challenge for Burrow and company.
Prediction
As far as the statistics go, the Rams seemingly have an edge in all three facets of this matchup. Of course, we all know that what happens on the field can transcend what the stats say, and Burrow has been a magnificent example of that this postseason. But at the end of the day, Mahomes couldn’t overcome a struggling offensive line a year ago in the last Super Bowl, and it’s difficult to see Burrow faring much better against a similarly dominating pass rush.
It’s also interesting to note that DraftKings Sportsbook has -240 odds for a team to score three times unanswered. With the Rams favored, this would seem to indicate the possibility of them building a big lead in the first half. And if that’s the case, the Bengals may need to throw even more in the second half, which may not bode well for Burrow considering Cincinnati’s poor pass protection.
The Titans managed to limit Cincinnati to just one touchdown, but their offense couldn’t get it done, whereas the Rams can score on offense and limit the Bengals’ offense. As long as Stafford is safe with the football and can avoid turnovers, this Super Bowl could turn into another blowout, as much as Bengals fans may not want to hear it. The current spread of 4 to 4.5 points may not be high enough, as I’m predicting a double digit win for the Rams.
Prediction: Rams 34, Bengals 13
10 Best Bets for Super Bowl LVI
- Joe Burrow over 36.5 pass attempts (-106 on FanDuel)
- Joe Burrow under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 on DraftKings)
- Samaje Perine over 1.5 receptions (+105 on DraftKings)
- Tyler Boyd over 4.5 receptions (+125 on DraftKings)
- Tyler Boyd over 39.5 receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel)
- Tee Higgins over 67.5 receiving yards (-115 on DraftKings)
- Rams over 3.5 sacks (+105 on DraftKings)
- Rams -4 (-112 on FanDuel)
- Rams 1st half -3 (-110 on both)
- Rams to win both halves (+235 on DraftKings)
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