Finding sleepers has to be the best part of fantasy basketball. Having a leg up on your competitors in the lower parts of the draft can make or break your season. Finding good shooting guard sleepers is the toughest part of that section, considering the designation is often shared with traditional point guards or small forwards.
Very rarely are players traditional 2 guards, given their defensive transitions and offensive capabilities. With that in mind, the position is often disregarded in the lower ends of the draft. Shooting guards have a tendency to lack rebounds or assists, and rely heavily on shooting and defensive metrics. In this article we will take a look at a few shooting guard sleepers whose projected output will exceed their ADP.
Shooting Guard Sleepers
Based on depth charts, three of these shooting guard sleepers are starters, and one will most likely get starter minutes. Keldon Johnson has been a herald of the San Antonio rebuild. Benedict Mathurin was a promising rookie who bounced between bench and starter minutes. John Konchar will take advantage of the Ja Morant situation. Lastly, Pat Connaughton will bounce back to have a major role. All of these have a substantial output-to-draft-position ratio, which we will discuss to make a more educated pick.
Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs wing is going to benefit greatly from the roster construction this season. Johnson has increased his share of the offensive load, taking four more shots per game than he did the previous season and seven more than his second season in the league. Johnson did struggle to retain efficiency, dropping all three shooting marks. For comparison’s sake, he averaged 22PPG/5.0 RPG/2.9 APG on 45.2%/32.9%/74.9% shooting. (FG/3P/FT)
He still is a threat, especially with players like Wembanyama taking the focus of the defense away from him. Expect his efficiency to rise, but his overall production outside of assists to lower. Something to the tune of 19PPG/4.5RPG/3.3APG on 46%/35%/75%. Johnson’s average draft position is about 107.8 between multiple sources, and this output would put him in the 60s-70s. 10th round sleepers are important!
Benedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Mathurin may have a lot of overall hype, but not a ton of fantasy draft-ability after last season. It would be a surprise to see him any higher than the 10th round. This season, Mathurin will bounce between a starting role and sixth man once again, but with more open shots and experience under his belt. Although not the best defensive guard/forward to rely on, Mathurin will definitely score buckets. It may not be incredibly efficient, but this is certainly a good back-end points league draft.
The one aspect of his game that should improve is his three-point shooting. Models across the board have him as an average shooter, and it seems the weight of his own success in the first two months came crashing down. He went from shooting north of 37% on shots above the arc to below 32% for four straight months. Given Mathurin’s college success, it seems that the real him is the one of the first two months of the season, not the one that endured the long winter.
In the pre-season, he’s been finishing buckets against players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Onyeka Okongwu. Give him a last few rounds pick, and you’ll get a 17.5/5/3 candidate, which is a great pick-up given the depth of certain leagues.
John Konchar, Memphis Grizzlies
The Fort Wayne great is a hard read. Given that Konchar had the fifth most starts of returning Grizzlies, it would be unlikely that he does not get the nod given that. In starts last season, he scored 8.4 points, with 6.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game. This output came on 45.1%/36%/93.8% shooting, which is very efficient for someone who was back and forth with minutes and roles.
Unfortunately, he has been out of the pre-season with a personal issue and has only played one decent pre-season game thus far. It is hard to say if he’ll get the starting nod now, but given he does it would be a great addition to a categories league with good efficiency. He fits in well with the current iteration of the team too, being a career 37.6% shooter on corner threes. Having that type of player to be the glue for a team missing its most prominent scorer is huge to retain playoff hope early.
This is another last pick in the draft type, as he will most likely go undrafted in many leagues.
Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks
Connaughton had the worst shooting season from a FG% standpoint in his entire career, and the worst from three in two seasons. Basically, Connaughton is not that bad. He will compete for the starting spot with Malik Beasley, who is the current starter based on the preseason conversations. Unfortunately for Beasley, Connaughton is the better defender and not a slouch offensively either. Although the former Laker guard had a good season last year, it would make logical sense that the Bucks will need a better point-of-attack defender than what Beasley can offer.
What counts against Connaughton in this situation is age and firepower, but the Bucks have that in spades with Damian Lillard. Once he joins the starting lineup, expect splits like Konchar. Last year, as a starter, he was 42%/37.3%/52.2%(!), with 9.2/5.7/1.6 per game. This should hold, minus the free throw percentage, which would make him a late-round value, especially as a hold.
Other Players to consider:
Grayson Allen: good shooter, good minutes. Sixth man type.
Jaden Ivey: Questions about starting time, but will get minutes.
Talen Horton-Tucker: May be the starting SG in Utah!
Got a few shooting guard sleepers of your own? Let us hear about it in the comments below! In the meantime check out all the great analysis in our 2023 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!