As much as people love to talk about their successful fantasy baseball picks, seasons are often won and lost based on the bad picks. How early were your bad picks? Were you able to minimize them? Each season is filled with disappointing players. This article looks at three players who saw their wRC+ drop by over 35 points from 2022 to 2023 and uses xwRC+ to determine whether the struggles are legit.
For those unfamiliar with xwRC+ I will provide a brief description. This is a self-created model that is used to analyze wRC+. Since wRC+ is based on statistics that can be induced by luck, this model attempts to take luck out of the equation. Details of what goes into the model can originally be found here on Fantrax, and then an updated version of the model is discussed here.
2023 wRC+ Decliners
Eloy Jimenez – OF – Chicago White Sox
Looking Back:
The 2023 season was one to forget for the White Sox. Just about anything that could go wrong did go wrong. The high hopes for 2023 did not stop with the real-life team but continued throughout the fantasy baseball community. Almost every analyst out there was picking Eloy Jimenez as their breakout star for this season. He was pushed higher and higher up draft boards with little concern for what could go wrong. The biggest concern was health, and sure he only played in 120 games, but that marks his highest total since 2019.
Looking back on 2022, Jimenez was impressive in 84 games. He crushed 16 home runs, posted a .295 batting average, and a 143 wRC+. 16 home runs in 84 games makes it easy to understand why expectations were so high in 2023. He did not land on any xwRC+ bust articles, but the model did provide some red flags looking ahead to 2023. Amongst all batters included, he posted the 19th biggest difference between his wRC+ and xwRC+. xwRC+ noticed his high chase rate and mediocre xOBP and determined that regression was due. The model predicted his 2022 numbers should have been closer to 120 compared to 143.
What Actually Happened:
While the model helped encourage me to steer clear of the Jimenez off-season hype, it did not anticipate 2023 going so poorly. Jimenez struggled even more than the model thought he would posting a 105 wRC+ this season. Despite playing in 36 more games this year compared to last, he only hit two more home runs. His walk rate dropped by over two percent, his barrel rate by over five percent, and his average exit velocity by nearly two miles per hour. According to FanGraphs’ auction calculator, Jimenez ranked as the 65th-best outfielder in fantasy last season. This is far from what fantasy managers expected when they drafted him.
What Does xwRC+ Think:
So, what went wrong and should we expect this to continue? For starters, Jimenez does not run. He has not stolen a base in his Major League career and even with the new rules that did not change. While fantasy managers were not expecting him to suddenly start running, this puts even more pressure on his bat to play up. In 2022, Jimenez’s .295 batting average was fueled by a .337 BABIP. This BABIP was supported by a line drive rate of under 17% and a sweet spot percentage of under 32%. This past season, Jimenez saw his BABIP regress down to .305. His sweet spot percentage got even worse (26%) and his line drive rate dropped below 16%. With an average launch angle of just 5.7 degrees, it is surprising Jimenez was even able to post those numbers.
Barrel percentage factors in a player’s launch angle. Jimenez’s 2023 issues resulted in his barrel rate dropping all of the way down to 9.3%. This in turn resulted in his HR/FB% dropping from 21.6% down to 15.9%. Jimenez’s inconsistent swing showed up in his pop-ups too. After posting an infield fly ball rate of just 4.1% in 2022, this number jumped all of the way up to 14.2%. Not only was Jimenez hitting fly balls at a low rate, but a good portion of those fly balls did not even make it out of the infield.
The model is not surprised that Jimenez struggled in 2023. His xwRC+ for this past season was just 94. This is even worse than his true performance. If you are holding Jimenez in a dynasty/keeper league, the model is warning that you should not expect a bounce back. Selling low is not a bad idea if the results are not going to get better. There is still somebody out there who is willing to pay up for him based on name value alone and his xwRC+ suggests that you should take this deal.
Starling Marte – OF – New York Mets
Looking Back:
Way back when this model was first developed, it screamed for the regression of Starling Marte. In my first ever xwRC+ busts article, Marte was highlighted as a player the model was sure would face regression entering 2022. Instead of regressing, Marte managed to get better.
Durability was still a concern, but Marte posted the highest wRC+ of his career. His launch angle improved by nearly three degrees helping to fuel his success.
Still, entering 2023, the model was not a fan of Marte’s. Outside of the fact he stole bases at the lowest rate of his career, the model was not a believer in his underlying metrics. Both his barrel rate and exit velocity dropped from 2021 to 2022 while his chase rate increased over that span. Even though the model was not a believer in his 134 wRC+, the model was not as down on him as the previous year. His xwRC+ landed at 118 (thanks in part to the inclusion of xOBP). While the model advised against using high draft capital on him, he still profiled to be a solid player.
What Actually Happened:
The wheels fell completely off is what happened. As per usual, Marte dealt with injuries, but his power completely disappeared. He only managed to hit five home runs last season which is his lowest total since 2012 (he only played 47 games that year). Part of the power outage was fueld by a pull rate that dropped over six percent. PLV does a good job of illustrating just how poor Marte was in the power department this season.
Marte’s power has fluctuated throughout his career, but his average always remained high. This was no longer the case in 2023. His average dropped 44 points down to .248 despite a BABIP that remained over .300. His sprint speed (which helped him sustain high BABIPs throughout his career) dropped from the 68th percentile in 2022 to the 44th percentile in 2023. Last season was a total disaster. His wRC+ of 76 was by far the lowest of any season in his career. Marte was one of the biggest busts of 2023 fantasy baseball drafts.
What Does xwRC+ Think:
The model is not surprised by Marte’s struggles. One of the biggest signs pointing to his decline was his plate discipline. While Marte has always run high chase rates, he has been able to keep them at a reasonable level. His chase rate this season ballooned to 37.4% and his whiff rate jumped up over three percent from 2022. Take a look at his decision value from PLV:
He posted a -2 run value off of the four-seam fastball which historically has been a pitch that Marte has done damage off of. Marte experienced regression in just about every offensive category. Considering Marte will be 35 next season, it is fair to question what kind of fantasy relevance he has moving forward.
While the model believes that his 76 wRC+ is a little bit harsh, it does not believe that Marte even deserves to be an average player. His 2023 xwRC+ came in at 96. Considering he has proven incapable of holding up for an entire season, he is a player to continue avoiding looking ahead to 2024.
Andres Gimenez- 2B/SS Cleveland Guardians
Looking Back:
After a breakout 2022 season, Gimenez looked like one of the safest options to draft at second base. A stable floor for stolen bases, an excellent average, and new and improved power forecast big things to come. Many were all in on the then 24-year-old entering 2023. Reasonably assuming things would only continue to get better was a fair assumption.
Gimenez however landed on my second base busts article from last off-season. You can check that out here, but the majority of the reasoning was his low xwRC+. His barrel rate, exit velocity, and sweet spot percentage did not scream power hitter. While many were projecting a 20-home run season, xwRC+ was warning you to pump the brakes. His 142 wRC+ came with a 109 xwRC+. While his stolen base totals do not factor into the equation, xwRC+ was predicting regression in power, walk rates, and strikeout rates. This was a major red flag.
What Actually Happened:
Outside of stolen bases, regression hit Gimenez in a big way. As with many players, his stolen base totals increased from 20 to 30. However, his home run total dropped from 17 to 15 despite 59 more plate appearances. Gimenez’s batting average which was viewed to be relatively safe dropped from .297 to .251. His average exit velocity managed to drop from an already below-average 87.8 mph to 84.8 mph. His wRC+ dropped 45 points down to 97. Offensively, Gimenez was three percent worse than the league average. He graded out as the 15th-best second baseman with his only real contribution coming from stolen bases.
What Does xwRC+ think:
Similarly to Eloy Jimenez, the model predicted regression, but not to this extent. The harsh reality is that Gimenez got worse in almost every category last season. His chase rate did not improve, but instead jumped up to 40%. His willingness to expand the zone led to even more weak contact than before. The average exit velocity for Gimenez ranked in the first percentile in all of baseball. Honestly, with mediocre contact rates, it is a miracle that his strikeout rate managed to improve from 2022 to 2023.
Instead of the next superstar second baseman, Gimenez looks much more like a fringe starter. Even with 30 stolen bases, he struggles to produce in every other category. The Guardians are a team that struggles offensively making it difficult for Gimenez to even contribute to runs or RBIs. His 9.2 HR/FB% looks much more representative of his true power profile than his inflated 2022 percentage.
Since the model was already predicting a pretty sizable drop in production, his 2023 xwRC+ number is relatively similar to his 2022 number. The model believes that Gimenez deserved a 105 wRC+ this season. A .289 BABIP for a player with his speed is probably a little bit unlucky. That being said, the model remains pretty far out on Gimenez at his current value. If you can find stolen base production elsewhere, Gimenez is not a player you need to have on your fantasy rosters.
Byron Buxton- OF Minnesota Twins
Looking Back:
Remember when Byron Buxton was going to be a generational talent? After injuries derailed the early years of his career, Buxton has flirted with stardom a few times in the past few years. The issue is that his lack of durability put a halt to his base-stealing abilities. Still, even without elite stolen base numbers, he had enough power to be a legitimate fantasy asset.
Buxton’s game transformed after the 2021 season. In 2022, Buxton (like most of the Twins’ players) transformed his game to sell out for power. His flyball rate skyrocketed while his average plummeted. Fantasy managers were okay with a .224 average because he hit 28 home runs in just 92 games. His 600-plate appearance pace was 44 home runs and his 136 wRC+ was more than enough from a production standpoint. The model loved what Buxton did in 2022. His phenomenal barrel rate propelled him to a 133 xwRC+. The model did not believe there was any regression coming for Buxton in 2023.
What Actually Happened:
Durability issues continued to persist for Buxton. This marks the fifth consecutive season dating back to 2017 (excluding 2020) in which Buxton failed to reach 100 games played. What is even worse for fantasy managers in dynasty/keeper leagues is that he failed to play a single inning in the outfield this year. His eligibility will now move to UTIL only and he cannot even stay healthy while playing as the DH.
In addition, Buxton’s average continued to fall. After dropping from .306 to .224 from 2021 to 2022, Buxton’s average dropped even further to .207. His strikeout rate crept up over 31% while his HR/FB% dropped nearly 10%. His HR/600 pace dropped from 44 in 2022 to 29 in 2023. Now, 29 home runs is nothing to scoff at, but for a batter barely hitting over .200 fantasy managers expected better.
What Does xwRC+ think:
Considering that xwRC+ was a believer in Buxton’s talent following the 2022 campaign, I was curious to see if the model saw him as unlucky this past season. Turns out, for the first time in this article, we have ourselves a bounce-back candidate. The model continues to believe in Buxton as a player and believes he was extremely unlucky last season. His 2023 xwRC+ landed at 129 which is over 30 points higher than what he actually posted.
The part of Buxton’s 2023 season that xwRC+ liked the most was the improvement to his whiff rate. His 2023 whiff rate of 30.6% is still above the league-average but is much better than the 34.1% he posted in 2022. Outside of that, not much changed. The model loves his quality of contact and he even showed more of a willingness to run with the new stolen base rules.
The model does not factor in positional eligibility and durability; two key points already hit on in this section. Buxton is a risky pick, and his upside is not what it once was. That being said, he could be a value come draft day. The model is projecting a bounce-back 2024 season.