The 2022-2023 season was relatively tough for these two forwards. Middleton only played 33 games and started 19 of them, while Bojan played for a bad Pistons team. Although not the same, the rigors of a long, unsuccessful season may as well be the same as having a long-term injury. Both are easily overlooked. Khris Middleton and Bojan Bogdanovic are relatively low on many small forward/power forward rankings despite being good shooters with the ability to contribute to other things than scoring throughout their careers. The comparison is a little closer than the outcome will seem. It is worth breaking down each category, especially for where their projected draft positions are.
Veteran Forwards: Khris Middleton vs. Bojan Bogdanovic
Points: Even
Both of these forwards will be subjugated to the curse of tertiary options of their individual teams. The Bucks have Giannis and Dame, who will take up a large swath of touches. The Pistons are returning Cade Cunningham, and have a range of options. Expect Bojan to be a secondary/tertiary option here too but with more of a role than Middleton.
That being said, both players have averaged 19-20 points per game over their last three full seasons. Middleton has slightly better marks, but given that Bogdanovic is the better overall shooter, it would be safe to take him over Middleton from a points perspective given the dynamic Dame/Giannis pairing. Middleton will also take secondary roles when Dame is injured (maximum 67 games over the last four seasons), or Giannis (also maximum 67 games over the last four seasons). Regardless, Middleton and Bogdanovic will be catch-and-shoot tertiary playmakers.
Rebounds: Middleton
With how big Boganovic plays, you would think this would be a close matchup. It is not. Middleton and Bogdanovic have averaged more than 5.5 and 4 rebounds respectively over the last four seasons. That’s enough of a sample size to make a determination on the better selection. Looking deeper, it is not a matter of opportunity either. Middleton grabs an average of 9.4% of chances, as opposed to Bogdanovic’s 6.9% (nice) through that same time frame. With shot-making increasing in Detroit, expect this to stay true this season as well. Middleton has the clear edge.
Assists: Middleton
Similar to rebounds, Middleton is the clear-cut better option than Bojan when it comes to assists. Middleton has assisted on 24.5% of plays over the last four seasons; opposite of Bojan’s 10.2%. This shows up in their per-game metrics. Middleton has been known as a keen passer, and it shows up in the 5 per game over the last four seasons. Even though Bojan tends to make the right read on passes, and flashes overall good court vision, he’s only averaged a measly 2.0. Middleton is most likely going to assist more with Damian Lillard on the team.
Stocks: Middleton
Honestly, it is uncertain whether or not one of these two players will average a steal plus a block per game this season. Middleton, now that the offensive engine will run through Lillard, will most likely have to spread his abilities to continue his defensive capabilities. Although that sounds like a good idea, Middleton has not been more than a barely above-average defender in the last three seasons. Do not expect either player to get more than a steal per game, and it should not be the deciding factor in which to select one of these old men.
FG%: Bojan Bogdanovic
It’s not a secret that Bojan is, at face value, the better shooter. He has an overall better FG% and 3P% over the last two seasons. This matters more now, especially, given the overall offensive diversity on the team. Middleton will be subjugated with one of two bigs (Lopez or Portis) to the corners, given the lack of quality shooting two guards. The Bucks are apparently planning on using one of Malik Beasley or Pat Connaughton, both of whom have only been slightly above-average three-point shooters in the last few seasons. Regardless, Bojan is the better distance shooter which will be the determining factor for which player has a higher FG% over the course of this entire season. Bojan will also most likely get more shots, which does matter in some leagues that use weighted rate stats or points-based leagues.
3PR: Bojan Bogdanovic
See above, Bojan will take no less than six threes per game at an above 40% clip. Middleton has only surpassed six attempts twice, and most likely will not get that close to the same percentage. The above conversation about FG% should tell you all you need to know about the correct option.
FTR: Slightly Khris Middleton
Last season, Bogdanovic had a wonderful career-best free throw rate. As a Detroit fan, that would have been really nice to have in a season that mattered. That probably has something to do with it. This is a slight lean, given that Middleton has shown better shooting over the course of their careers, but with less attempts. If you want to take a chance on Bogdanovic doing what he did last year, it may be worth it in the long run.
Overall: Coin Flip, Depends on the Situation.
This comes down to individual team needs. On the one hand, Middleton will be better for basic stats. On the other, Bogdanovic will serve as a shooting savant. However, if one is a much higher projected pick than the other, take a different player early. For example, if Middleton is projected as a 5th-round pick, but Bogdanovic is a 7th-round pick, take a different player. Bogdanovic, at anything more than one round later than Middleton is the selection. He will not hurt you in counting statistics drastically enough to not take a better option in those categories than Middleton. This may be the last year before Bogie falls off the table. Most players, when they reach 35 will slow down, and with their individual set of skills may be shifted to the bench. Make the choice best suited to your team. Pick wisely.
Got a different take on these two players?? Let us hear about it in the comments below! In the meantime check out all the great analysis in our 2023 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!