There are two kinds of workload concerns for a running back.
The first is the workload you get if you are on a team that has a running back by committee. In that case, the concern is that there won’t be enough snaps to make you relevant. That type of concern I will address in my next article where I discuss backfields to beware of.
The second is running backs that have either already had incredible workloads over the last few years or are about to. Injuries and ineffectiveness are both concerns in this case.
RB Workload Concerns for 2023 Fantasy Football
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
Over the last four years, no one has had more carries than Henry. He played three fewer games but had 174 more carries than the number two running back during that period. Those are not easy carries either. NextGen Stats calculate that in 2022, in over 38% of his carries, he had to face eight men in the box. Josh Jacobs, last year’s rushing leader only had to face eight men 20% of the time.
Henry is now 29 years old and the average drop-off starts at about age 27 for running backs. The average life span for a running back in the NFL is around 2.5 years.
Has the drop-off already happened?
In 2019 and 2020 he averaged 5.1 and 5.4 yards per carry. In the last two years, he averaged 4.3 and 4.4 yards per carry. Another troubling stat is that he had more fumbles last year than at any time in his career.
Last year Henry had 349 carries. His backup, Hassan Haskins, had 25. Each quarterback that played on the team last year had more than 25 carries. If the offense is on the field then you will see Henry out there. Tennessee drafted Tyjae Spears to be another backup to Henry but based on history, I doubt it makes any difference. When drafting Henry this year ask yourself if this is the year that the age and the workload finally catch up to him.
Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns
In the last four years, there were only four players other than Henry to have more than 1,000 rushing attempts. Nick Chubb was one of those. Most of that time he was splitting carries with Kareem Hunt so he wasn’t quite the workhorse Henry was. Hunt is now a free agent. The only real backup on the roster is Jerome Ford.
This will be the first year that Chubb will not be on a timeshare.
The question now is can he handle the increased workload that he will be getting over what he has already had at the same time he is reaching age 27.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
Snap count is another pretty good way to measure a running back’s workload. If a player has a high snap count, he is out on the field for running plays, passing plays, first, second and third downs. The situation doesn’t matter.
Christian McCaffrey who it seems is always on the field had one game where he played 91% of the snaps last year. Barkley had three games last year over the 90% mark. James Conner had five games getting a snap count of 90% or higher. This while missing four games and leaving another three games early.
Keaontay Ingram is his backup and last year only had 27 rushing attempts. So there isn’t much on this roster that will be giving him any rest.
Kyler Murray tore his ACL and may not be back in time for the season. Even if he is starting game one, I am not expecting as many run plays for Murray and most of Murray’s attempts will go to Conner.
I have serious concerns about an added workload to the backfield with no extra help. The extra carries could make Conner a top-five RB or it will be another season where we find him on the IL.
Dalvin Cook – FA
Cook was the running back that came in second to Henry for the most carries over the last four years. Last year he only gave up 74 rushing attempts to an excellent backup in Alexander Mattison.
With the volume he has had over the years, he has consistently gotten you over 1,000 yards and a lot of Fantasy points.
However, there are a couple of alarming stats we need to be aware of going into this season.
One is the average yards per carry. In 2020 the average was 5.0 yards, in 2021 was 4.7, and in 2022 his average carry was only 4.4. That is still a good number but the decline is evident.
If you dig a little deeper there is another stat to look at that tells me the workload is catching up to him. That is a NextGen stat that they developed in 2020. RYOE/ATT. It is simply their way of measuring the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards per rush attempt. There is a good explanation of expected rushing yards here.
In 2020 his RYOE/ATT was .81. So, his production was much better than expected based on all the factors they use to calculate this stat. In 2021 it slipped to .34. Still better than expected but less than what it was. Last year it was a -.16. This trend shows a pretty significant decline.
If he ends up on a team as a number-one back, they will certainly need to monitor his workload.
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— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023