As an analyst, I am constantly attempting to identify players who have the potential for their Fantasy Football production to outweigh their draft cost. I just recently dropped my 32 NFL Teams – 32 Fantasy Football Sleepers article with this exact intention. Paying off when it comes to production over cost, in general, is one thing, but taking it even further and identifying players who can finish Top 12 for Fantasy in their position for points per reception (PPR) leagues is another.
Wide Receiver is the deepest position in Fantasy Football in my opinion. Looking specifically at 2022, there were four tight ends, 24 running backs, and 32 wide receivers that scored at least 12 fantasy points per game. So identifying wide receivers with Top 12 potential can be huge for your Fantasy drafts.
If we again look at 2022, here are some wide receivers that were drafted outside the Top 15 for the position but finished Top 12 in total scoring by the end of the year.
Wide receiver – Pre-season ADP vs. Post-season finish for Fantasy
- Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) – WR18 vs. WR8
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) – WR21 vs. WR7
- Amari Cooper (Browns) – WR28 vs. WR10
- DeVonta Smith (Eagles) – WR37 vs. WR9
- Christian Kirk (Jaguars) – WR39 vs.WR12
The above list paid off big time when it came to where managers drafted them vs. what they produced for Fantasy. This draws the question – who is currently being drafted outside the Top 15 for the wide receiver position, but is a candidate to finish inside the Top 12 for the position in 2023?
Top Wide Receiver Values for 2023 Fantasy Football
Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
2022 was completely wiped for Calvin Ridley due to a gambling suspension, which came after a 2021 season in which he played in just five games.
Ridley averaged 14.2 Fantasy PPG in those games, with his last appearance being on October 24, 2021.
The year prior, Ridley had a massive season, catching 90 of his 143 targets for 1,374 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. 18.8 Fantasy PPG in 2020 was the fourth-highest for the position. The former first-round draft pick has historically earned targets (92+ from 2018-2020), displayed receiving yard upside (821+ receiving yards – 2018-2020), and has a double-digit touchdown season under his belt (2018) in Atlanta.
Ridley returns to playing, but now in a new home with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is following Trevor Lawrence having a major jump in his statistics, finishing Top 10 for the quarterback position in passing attempts (584), deep ball attempts (65), red zone attempts (83), passing yards (4,113), air yards (4,298) and passing touchdowns (25).
As far as Jacksonville receivers go, Christian Kirk (WR) earned 133 targets, Zay Jones (WR) had 121, and Evan Engram (TE) 98. Marvin Jones Jr. (Lions) vacates 81.
Calvin Ridley, for me, is the most talented wide receiver on the roster. Ridley has the best statistical resume and should have the opportunity to step in as the team’s new WR1. The combination of previous fantasy production, talent, Trevor Lawrence’s progression, as well as the opportunity for consistent volume, makes Ridley an easy wide receiver to list here. Ridley is currently being drafted as the WR19.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
I have consistently been a massive Jerry Jeudy truther when it comes to Fantasy Football, which has been frustrating due to his derailments and/or injuries. In Jeudy’s rookie season, he earned 113 targets and was top seven in both deep targets and air yards for the position in 2020, finishing with 820 receiving yards.
In 2021 Jeudy played in just 10 games. 2022 was the brightest year for the former first-round pick, finishing with the 19th-most fantasy PPG (13.6) for the position. Jeudy finished 12th in deep targets, 22nd in receiving yards (972), 16th in yards after the catch, and 9th in yards per target.
These metrics show a combination of playmaking and efficiency. If you average the final seven games Jeudy played 50%+ of the snaps in 2022, he averaged a stellar 19.37 Fantasy PPG. 19.37 Fantasy PPG would have ranked WR5 across the full 2022 season.
Russell Wilson simply had a down year in 2022, putting up a career-low 60.5 completion %, as well as the fewest passing touchdowns of his career (16). A 5-12 finish for Denver was well below expectations. Wilson has four seasons above 4,000 passing yards in his career, as well as five seasons above 30 passing touchdowns.
Denver hired Sean Payton, who is a former Super Bowl winner with a career regular season record of 152-89. Payton was by far the biggest coaching signing of the offseason.
Jeudy should operate as the team’s WR1 in 2023, which is appealing due to Sean Payton’s history of successful wide receivers such as Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, and Marques Colston. Jeudy has been historically touted as an elite route-runner, and we have seen his ability to create yards after catch and catch the deep ball.
I expect Denver to progress as an offense in 2023 under Payton, Wilson to have a comeback season, and Jeudy to pick up where he left off in 2022. Jeudy is currently being drafted as the WR24.
DJ Moore, Bears
During his time in Carolina, DJ Moore played with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield; not exactly the most elite of passing quarterbacks.
Despite questionable quarterbacks, Moore has finished with over 1,100 receiving yards in three of his five seasons. For four straight seasons, the former first-round draft pick has earned somewhere between 118-1632 targets. Three of his five seasons have also resulted in 14+ Fantasy PPG with a career-best 15.4 in 2019 (#14 for wide receivers).
DJ Moore lands in Chicago via an offseason trade, to be paired with the best quarterback he has ever played with in Justin Fields. Fields has often been knocked for his low passing attempts in 2022 (318 total), but context means everything. Chicago was in a one-score game eight times, had only Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown play 12+ games at the wide receiver position, had a terrible offensive line, and finished with a 3-14 record.
People forget about Justin Fields’ performance in college too often and regard him as just a rushing quarterback. At Ohio State, Fields finished 2019 with 233.78 passing yards per game and 262.5 passing yards per game in 2020 while combining for 63 passing touchdowns in those 22 games.
DJ Moore steps in to compete with a wide receiver room primarily featuring Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool.
DJ Moore has consistently earned targets throughout his career, and Justin Fields finally getting his alpha wide receiver to go hand-in-hand. I expect Moore to be heavily targeted in a Chicago offense that will surely pass the ball at a higher rate.
Receiving yard upside has always been in Moore’s bag and I love the connection that has already been building in camp between him and Justin Fields. DJ Moore is currently being drafted as the WR22.
Keenan Allen, Chargers
2022 was an unfortunate year for Keenan Allen due to only appearing in 10 games. This drew narratives that tied him to being in his 30s with injury issues, despite him rarely missing time from 2017-2021 at all.
Across Keenan Allen’s final seven healthy games in 2022, he averaged 10.71 targets, 7.86 receptions, 83 receiving yards, .57 touchdowns, and 19.7 Fantasy points. To me, those numbers do not make him look “washed up” by any means. Allen from 2017-2021 ranged from 137-159 targets, and he finished with over 1,100 receiving yards in four of those five years. Allen has also finished as a Top 12 fantasy wide receiver in Fantasy PPG in five of his last six seasons.
Justin Herbert was absolutely paid this week in a five-year extension. Keenan Allen has totaled 268 receptions for 2,845 receiving yards and scored 18 touchdowns with Herbert across the last three seasons. Herbert has ranked second in passing attempts in back-to-back seasons, as well as had three seasons of over 4,300 passing yards along with two seasons of over 30 passing touchdowns. Allen has been Herbert’s go-to target in this Chargers offense.
The Chargers spent a first-round pick on Quentin Johnston in this year’s NFL Draft out of TCU. When looking at this target impact, I feel as though Johnston would have more of an impact on the target ceilings of Mike Williams (RB) and Austin Ekeler (RB) should he earn them.
Keenan Allen was great when healthy last season, and has consistently been a Top 12 option the last four seasons in a row. The volume from Herbert is great, Allen does a great job getting open and the rest translates to Fantasy Football. Allen is currently being drafted as the WR18.
DeAndre Hopkins, Titans
This offseason, DeAndre Hopkins signed a contract with the Tennessee Titans after his stint in Arizona. Hopkins was suspended for most of 2022, appearing in just nine games for the Cardinals.
During those nine games, Hopkins averaged 16.9 Fantasy PPG which was the ninth-best, and saw 10+ targets in 78% of his appearances. Looking strictly at the four games Hopkins played with Kyler Murray, he averaged 21.63 Fantasy PPG.
These marks simply show how elite he was just last season. Hopkins has had six seasons of 150+ targets, as well as three seasons of 20+ Fantasy PPG. Being elite for Fantasy Football is second nature for Hopkins.
Hopkins gets paired up with Ryan Tannehill, which many made out to seem like a bad thing but statistics are not as negative as the remarks.
Tannehill played in just 12 games last season but ranked fifth in yards per attempt. In 2021, Tannehill ranked 12th in passing attempts (531), 11th in red zone attempts (83), and had a 56.3 QBR which ranked eighth best. Tannehill has thrown for over 3,700 passing yards in both 2020 and 2021.
Treylon Burks will enter his second season and has shown some promise as a first-round selection from last season. Other than Burks, there are no true standouts to consume a high target share. Hopkins should immediately step in as the team’s #1 target and should continue to do what he has done best which is to produce.
Seeing the numbers last year in that nine-game sample size, nothing indicates Hopkins has taken any steps back. 2023 can be a typical Hopkins season. Hopkins is currently being drafted as the WR21.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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