Welcome back for the final team in our 2023 fantasy hockey team preview series, the Stanley Cup champion, Vegas Golden Knights. The reviews were done alphabetically by division, so it is a mere coincidence we end with the reigning cup champions.
Other than sending Reilly Smith to Pittsburgh, the Golden Knights are effectively entering 2023-2024 with the same Cup-winning roster. The other big change was re-signing Ivan Barbashev. Since he was a trade deadline acquisition, he’s not really a summer addition.
It’s rare to see a championship team in the cap era have the ability to run back the same team. Usually, we see cap issues and several players traded or let go to become cap-compliant (see Tampa Bay and Colorado in the last four off-seasons).
Instead, here we are, copying last year’s comments on this team. Well, not really, I wasn’t writing last year – so unable to copy what I haven’t written. I digress… we should get on with it.
2023 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview
Vegas Forwards
All through the playoffs the Golden Knights forward depth was analyzed. Rightfully so, Vegas boasts four lines they can roll against any team in the league. This doesn’t mean they don’t have star power, they do.
Jack Eichel comes to mind. Finally, healthy and healed he displayed in the second half of the season why Vegas went after him so hard. He scored 32 points in his final 29 games and added 26 more in 22 playoff games.
These aren’t earth-shatteringly elite offensive numbers. They do demonstrate that Eichel is back, basically to pre-injury form. His best season prior was 78 points in 68 games on a really weak Buffalo team.
I have this theory. When a player returns from injury, more often than not, they aren’t 100%. They finish the year partially healthy. It takes the body another year to fully recover and return to pre-injury form. If we look at Eichel, upon returning from neck surgery he had 25 points in 34 games. Respectable, but below career pace. Last year, 67 in 66 games. Much closer to expectations. If my theory holds any weight, at all, we should see Eichel increase his offensive production beyond 84 point pace.
Health remains the biggest concern with Eichel. Only twice in his eight-year career has he played over 70 games. It’s safer to predict pace than points with Eichel. For that, I will take the over on a 90-point pace.
Speaking of health issues, the second-best fantasy forward option on the Knights is the oft-injured, Mark Stone. He has only played more than 60 games twice in the last six seasons. A point per game forward when he is in the lineup. The problem remains, keeping him in the lineup.
Jonathan Marchesseault is a couple of tiers below Stone and Eichel. The one thing he has going for him is durability. Expect him to be in the lineup more often than not. He provides a safe floor of 55 points, with an upside of 65. In multi-cat pools, he’s a stalwart for 220 shots and a hit per game. Marchesseault provides a low-maintenance guaranteed producer you can plug and play in the middle of your lineup.
I’ve got Marchesseault just ahead of Chandler Stephenson due to the shots. I play multi-cat pools, not points pools, so shots matter. Stephenson does have a slightly higher points ceiling. What a welcome surprise he has been since he was acquired in a trade from Washington for a 5th-round pick (2019). While Marchesseault will give you 55 points and 220 or more shots, Stephenson will give you 65 points and 140 shots. That’s at least a shot per game different. The hidden bonus of Stephenson is he is good on faceoffs (58% last year).
Ivan Barbashev ranks as the last meaningful fantasy option for most pools. There’s this underlying expectation that he’ll hit 60 points this year. If he maintains his spot with Eichel and Marchesseault on the top line, that’s a real possibility.
William ‘Wild Bill’ Karlsson also slips in with a 50-point expectation. He has such a strong 2-way game that he draws a lot of defensive assignments. There won’t be any repeat of his surprise magical 37-goal season.
For deeper pools, you’re hoping one of the depth players can break into a higher tier. Speaking of Nicolas Roy and Pavel Dorofeyev, primarily. Due to the depth of the Knights’ lines, gaining significant ice time will be a challenge. The Knights are often missing a top-six forward, so chances should arise.
Vegas Defense
Vegas boasts two really solid fantasy options on defense. Including, one of the best two-way defensemen in the world, Alex Pietrangelo. This guy just does it all. Just close your eyes and take his 45-55 points.
He is not an elite fantasy defenseman, but he is as consistent as they come. Now that he’s 33 years old he will start to slide a round or two in drafts. You can safely draft Pietrangelo for 45 points, with upside. He’s not going anywhere this, or next season. He also provides good multi-cat value. You can lock him in for two shots and two blocks per game. He’s had several seasons with over 200 shots, so there’s room for a little bit of extra there too.
Shea Theodore is your second option. Injuries are a common theme with the Golden Knights. He missed 27 games due to injury last year, preventing him from back-to-back 50-point seasons.
There is an upside beyond his career high of 52 points. As scoring continues to increase and teams rely on defensemen to push the offense, he could hit 60.
He also shoots the puck and can give you 200 shots. his multi-cat value ends there though. He’s not a hitter to speak of and his blocks are barely at one per game. My preference is always two per game unless they are an elite offensive option. Which Theodore is not.
For deep leagues, Braydon McNabb is a hit-and-block machine, consistently pushing 200 each. Alex Martinez is usually a gold mine for a run on blocks but offers little other value.
Vegas Goalies
Ahh, here come the injury comments again. I’m not sure any team suffers more goalie injuries as consistently as the Knights. Five years ago they went through every goalie in their system and then had to call up Dylan Ferguson from the Kamloops Blazers as an emergency basis.
Last year, Adin Hill saved the day and then led them to a Stanley Cup. He was rewarded with a two-year $4.9M contract.
With Logan Thompson making $ 895,000, this would indicate the starting job will be Hill’s initially.
I am not sold that Hill is all of a sudden a number one goalie. Tread carefully with this tandem. History is short on both options.
The strength of the Knights roster will alleviate some concerns. It seems crazy that I am hedging bets so hard on a goalie tandem that should win 50 games this year, but here we are.
I know I am not alone in these doubts. These doubts should result in Hill and Thompson sliding in drafts. If you’re draft strategy is to not draft goalies in the first half of your draft. Their average draft position on Fantrax is 184.78 overall. In a 12-team pool, that makes them 15th-round picks.
In Summary, Be wary of taking the top Golden Knight fantasy players too early. Injury history puts Eichel and Stone real risk of missing significant time. Their depth options, Stephenson, Marchesseault, and Barbashev provide strong late-middle-round value. Pietrangelo is a safe pick for 45-55 points, plug and play. Theodore has the higher upside and could see his first 60-point season. If looking for late-round value, it appears the Knights tandem offers just that. You will be hard-pressed to find the starting goalie of a 50-win team after the 14th round. If you take one, be safe and take both.
Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @doylelb4; where you’ll find as many hiking musings as you will fantasy hockey.
Make sure to check out all of our Fantasy Hockey Team Previews as they roll out over the coming weeks!
Looking for more great fantasy hockey analysis? Check out our 2023 Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit for team previews, rankings, and all the sleepers you can shake a stick at.