If you’re an Indianapolis Colts fan, you’ve got a lot to be optimistic about. However, you don’t have to be a Colts fan to see a lot of value/talent on this roster. There’s a reason the Colts’ brass thought they were only a QB away from contending last year. Indianapolis has the chance to be a fantasy football goldmine in 2023. For starters, the new head coach has prior NFL coaching experience…an upgrade already!
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Preview
Key Subtractions and Additions
Subtractions: Matt Ryan (QB), Parris Campbell (WR)
Additions: Pharaoh Brown (TE), Darrynton Evans (RB), Isaiah McKenzie (WR), Gardner Minshew (QB), Anthony Richardson (QB), Josh Downs (WR)
Positional Previews
Quarterback
I’m sure Matt Ryan is a nice guy. He was an even better QB during the prime of his career. But that prime came and went. What remained was Matt Ryan’s tenure with the Colts, which led the Colts to draft a QB with the number three pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Anthony Richardson was that draft pick, and I believe he is going to be incredible this year. I already have him ranked as my QB13 (well above his QB18 consensus).
I know what you’re thinking. Slow your roll. He’s a rookie. There will be plenty of bumps in the road. And yes, that’s true. I completely understand that mindset. But this is a different situation. We’re not talking about a cement-footed, pocket passer, whose only value comes after he’s able to read different coverages, make the right throws, and do all that faster than the defense can recover. Those QBs take longer to pan out, and they rarely ever do. It’s the reason there are only a handful of franchise QBs.
Anthony Richardson is a different breed, though, and that’s because he’s going to be the best athlete on the field at any given moment. At 6’4″, 244lbs, running a 4.43 40-yard dash, he has the build of Cam Newton with the speed of Lamar Jackson. Having one of those attributes is rare enough. Having both of them shouldn’t be physically possible.
He was 99th percentile in virtually all of his combine statistics. The Colts’ new head coach, Shane Steichen, was the Eagles offensive coordinator. Jalen Hurts took a leap, in part, because of this coach’s ability to play to Hurts’ strengths and design an offense around those strengths. He will do the same for Richardson.
While athleticism is my main impetus for Richardson’s fantasy success this year, the fact remains he’ll need to pass the ball too. While he has a cannon for an arm, Richardson also has his flaws. Like Josh Allen, he’s shown to be inaccurate in college.
Excuses can be made, like injuries and lack of pro-level WR talent surrounding him, but the fact remains that inaccuracy usually doesn’t get coached out of you. You’re either accurate, or you’re not. Richardson is not, but the hope is that he’ll find a way to correct that over time, as Josh Allen did. That won’t happen this year though, and it’s the main reason that Richardson isn’t higher than QB13 on my rankings. Richardson will be my top value in many drafts this year, as you’ll be able to get him later than you would the top-tier fantasy QBs (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Burrow, etc.).
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
Running Back
I will admit, drafting Jonathan Taylor last year was not a good pick in hindsight. The Colts were horrible, so the game script was rarely in favor of the running game. Also, Taylor was often injured. He only had three weeks in the entire season where he was a top-10 scoring running back for the week in fantasy. That is the reality. It’s also the past. We have to make projections for what we expect players to do going forward, with the information we have available.
I have Taylor as my RB6 on the year. That’s lower than the consensus (around RB2 or RB3), but it’s still a 1st round fantasy draft grade. He’s still the same player that rushed for 1,800 yards and 18TDs in 2022.
Injuries are part of the game, but I’m not sure that he’s the kind of player that you have to factor missed games into your projection. The main reason I’m lower than others on Taylor is because I’m so high on Richardson. I believe Richardson will take a lot of goal-line work away from Taylor as he’s bigger, and closer to the endzone than a RB will be.
Further, if the Eagles offense is any indication, we can expect a lot of red zone RPOs (run/pass options). That means the QB will read the linebacker’s positioning to determine whether to hand the ball off or make the play himself. That scheme led to Jalen Hurts becoming a fantasy hero, and Eagles running backs being hit or miss most weeks. Jonathan Taylor is too good to not be a large part of the Colts’ game plan, but I don’t expect another 1,800-yard season on tap.
Wide Receiver
I’m not going to lie. I have no idea what to make of Colts receivers for fantasy purposes. That usually means there’s value, but I’m going to proceed with caution. We have Michael Pittman Jr. as the team’s WR1 and Alec Pierce and Josh Downs as the other options. As real-life football players, the Colts have a lot of young talent. For fantasy purposes though, I’d probably have to have these players fall to me, in order to get them on my team. It’s too complicated a situation for me to reach and get them early.
Pittman Jr. is the WR1 unequivocally. That said, he had a top-10 fantasy scoring week only twice last year. He’s going to be hit or miss. While I love Anthony Richardson, I’ve mentioned I love him as an athlete. Not a passer. To be honest, I’m not entirely sure the rookie version of Richardson is an upgrade over Matt Ryan from a passing perspective. Ryan’s problem was that he’d become a crash dummy in the pocket. Richardson will be able to extend plays and that is a positive for Colts WRs, but I could absolutely see a world where Pittman has a down year. This will be a ground-and-pound offense, with a hard-nosed defense. That’s the Indianapolis identity. They are built to get a lead and keep it, not come from behind. I have Pittman as my WR29 currently, and the odds are that goes lower as I adjust rankings closer to draft season.
As for Pierce and Downs… If I’m not optimistic about the WR1, I’m definitely not going to sing the praises of the WR2 and WR3. The talent is there, but you can say that about a lot of WRs on a lot of teams. If you draft any of these WRs, you’re going to find yourself waffling back and forth regarding whether you should start them, every week. That’s not fun. Draft players you’re confident in.
Tight End
No. Running back by committee is tough enough to deal with in fantasy. Tight end by committee is even worse. Each one of these tight ends is bound to have a multiple-touchdown week, then universally picked up on the waiver wire, only to never have that kind of fantasy output for the rest of the season. Avoid.
Defense/Special Teams
The Colts lost some Pro Bowl-level talent in Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue, but they drafted well to fill those gaps. Expect the Colts to have a formidable run defense, with Shaq Leonard returning to form. This isn’t a must-draft defense, but there will be weeks where you wish you had them in fantasy. Waiver wire watchlist for Colts D.
I will be hosting a month of best ball leagues this summer; sign up to @Fantrax today and get ready for the best fantasy football season ever! #fantrax #fantasyfootball https://t.co/YtLEhMoo5J pic.twitter.com/ffSt00FY9R
— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023