A lot of things look the same for the Miami Dolphins from the 2022 to 2023 seasons. Most of their offensive pieces are still in place. On the defensive side of things, it’s clear they’re retooling to give up fewer points and cause more turnovers. They should compete for a playoff spot in a very difficult AFC conference while yielding plenty of popular players to pick in fantasy football.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Preview
Key Subtractions and Additions
Subtractions: Byron Jones (CB), Mike Gesicki (TE), Michael Deiter (OL), Eric Rowe (CB)
Additions: Jalen Ramsey (CB), Devon Achane (Rookie RB), David Long Jr. (LB), Malik Reed (LB), DeShon Elliott (S), Mike White (QB), Braxton Berrios (WR), Chosen Anderson (WR), Vic Fangio (Def. Coordinator)
Positional Previews
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa will be back under center for the Miami Dolphins. He’s also due back in 2024 after Miami exercised his fifth-year option. As of February, Tua is clear from the NFL’s concussion protocol and expected to be ready for the 2023 season. Tua is going to play with the same susceptibility to concussions as every other player given the amount of contact in football. However, the elephant in the room is how one more concussion affects his long-term health and ability to play.
In 2022, just five of Tua’s 13 games played exceeded 18.0 fantasy points. All others were 16.0 points or fewer. However, he did have a monster week winner 40.9 point performance in Week 2. Tua also boasts three straight games of 29.2, 24.1, and 23.4 points from Weeks 8 to 10.
Assuming and hoping for the best of health for Tua, I do think he can produce low-end QB1 fantasy numbers. With the options he has behind him at running back, Tua is less likely to run as much himself, capping his ceiling a bit. He does have elite options at receiver in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle that will help rack up points with explosive plays through the air from him.
In the event Tua cannot go, the Miami Dolphins fortified the position by bringing in Mike White as his backup. That’s good news for the offense as a whole. White has thrown for 300 or more yards in three of his seven career starts. He is fully capable of getting the ball to his playmakers with an, albeit small, sample size of doing so.
Running Back
The 2023 Miami Dolphins are running it back with their 2022 running backs. By re-signing free agents Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed, that’s a return of 87% of last year’s running back carries. Those four players account for 86.5% of last season’s running back touches in Miami, as well.
Unfortunately, Miami’s 2022 running game left a lot to be desired. The Dolphins rank 31st in rush attempts per game, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 27th in rushing touchdowns from last season. The running backs account for just nine total rushing touchdowns. Miami did rank 11th in points per game (23.8), but if their offense is going to take the next step forward, they need to drastically improve their rushing attack.
As a result, Mostert and Wilson, the backs with the highest touches, finished as just RB30 and RB37 respectively, with neither averaging more than 10.7 points per game. Both Mostert and Wilson have a history of injuries. Given their age, skepticism regarding health, and last year’s production, it’s hard to imagine trusting either as week-to-week starters in fantasy. They’re likely plug-and-play flex options with upside depending on the matchup.
Instead, I’m more likely to target rookie Devon Achane in almost every format. His blazing speed fits into this offense and it’s clear head coach Mike McDaniels wanted him on this team. He should be a first round dynasty pick, could have an impact in redraft leagues if Mostert and/or Wilson are unavailable, and is a great 2023 best ball pick with big-play potential.
Wide Receiver
Despite shaky quarterback play, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are one of three pairs of teammates that rank in the top-15 fantasy wide receivers in 2022. Both averaged 15.6 points per game or more, with Hill finishing as the WR3 and a 21.1 point per game average.
Hill is still the top option with the third-most targets (170) in the league last season, 53 more than Waddle. However, after claiming he is likely to play just three more seasons, and given Waddle’s elite talent, Waddle’s dynasty value is that much closer to jumping Hill’s, if it hasn’t already for some fantasy managers.
Hill and Waddle account for 77.3% of the Miami Dolphins’ 2022 wide receiver targets. It’s unlikely Chosen Anderson, Braxton Berrios, or anyone else makes enough of an impact to significantly alter that in 2023. They are deeper league, matchup-based options, if at all, in most formats. I’m still drafting Hill as a top-five wide receiver. Waddle is also a WR1 option inside my top-12. I feel even better about both knowing Mike White is the backup to Tua Tagovailoa in the event he plays at any point this season.
Tight End
As a whole, the 2022 Miami Dolphins tight ends drew just a 13.9% target share. Mike Gesicki’s 52 targets, which led all Dolphins tight ends, account for just a 9.7% target share from last season. So, even though he’s moving on to New England, his absence doesn’t open up a large hole in the passing game.
As of now, Miami’s depth chart includes Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert, Elijah Higgins, and Tanner Conner at tight end. Conner and Higgins have never caught a pass in an NFL game. Smythe and Saubert have, but neither has more than 34 receptions in a single season.
With such elite wide receivers and plenty of options out of the backfield, it’s unlikely we see any of these tight ends make a name for themselves in fantasy football.
Defense/Special Teams
The biggest splash of the Miami Dolphins off-season is the decision to trade for cornerback Jalen Ramsey. He is a much-needed addition to a division with Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers as opposing quarterbacks for four of their 17 games. Ramsey should boost Miami’s interception total from just eight last year which is the fourth-lowest total league-wide.
Miami is guilty of allowing 24.1 points per game to opponents in 2022, the ninth-highest average in the league. To combat last year’s efforts, the Dolphins are bringing in Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator. He’s already familiar with defensive end, Bradley Chubb, from their time in Denver. Both Chubb and Jaelan Phillips should excel on the edge with Fangio’s 36 years of experience scheming up defenses.
Given the difficulty of their division and other tough opponents, such as the Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, and Ravens, it will be hard to trust Miami’s defense in fantasy football. They’re likely a strong streaming option in certain weeks given their personnel. However, they’re just as quickly cut to avoid matching up with the list of tough matchups.
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— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023