I don’t believe it. After years of toiling in mediocrity (and I’m probably being kind), the 2023 New York Jets actually have winning expectations again. From a real-life and fantasy perspective, it was the run game/defense that kept this team afloat last season. Let’s take a deep dive into the notable changes, and how you should view this season’s Jets squad in fantasy.
New York Jets Fantasy Football Preview
Key Subtractions and Additions
Subtractions: Mike White (QB), James Robinson (RB), Ty Johnson (RB), Elijah Moore (WR), Braxton Berrios (WR)
Additions: Aaron Rodgers (QB), Randall Cobb (WR), Mecole Hardman (WR), Allen Lazard (WR), Israel Abanikanda (RB), Jeremy Ruckert (TE)
Positional Previews
Quarterback
The position that kept the Jets out of the playoffs last year, was quarterback… unequivocally. They certainly addressed that need this year. Instead of waiting for Zach Wilson to pan out (55% completion rate, 1700 yards passing, 6 TDs, 7 Ints), they traded for Aaron Rodgers. Not bad. Not bad, at all. In my mind, this is the right approach. Wilson was thrown into the fire in both of his first two seasons. I’m sure his poor performance eroded any confidence that he had in himself to succeed at the NFL level and sitting/learning behind Rodgers will give him the best chance to revive his career.
While Zach Wilson could be the future of the Jets QB situation, the present is Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers finished as the QB13 last year in what was one of his worst years statistically. He was injured and without Davante Adams, which could be used to explain the stat regression.
OR (and probably most likely), he was another year older and like every other athlete, is further away from his prime. If the latter was the main issue, then we can assume he will have roughly the same stats he had last year. That’s good enough for the Jets, as 3,700 passing yards, 26 TDs, and 12 Ints, would’ve been enough to make the Jets a Super Bowl contender last year, and it definitely makes them a playoff contender this year, if all other aspects of this team remain the same. I have him ranked as my QB18 on the year, and I’m lower than consensus. In a ground-and-pound offense like New York, Rodgers doesn’t need to be the MVP. He just needs to be league average.
That’ll be no problem for Rodgers. From a fantasy perspective, there are better options to draft at QB. Rodgers is the type of QB you’ll want to draft in later rounds of your fantasy football draft this year.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
Running Back
The RB room in New York is one of the deepest in the league. With a dominant defense like the Jets have, the idea is to pound other teams with the running game, control the clock, and let the defense get the few stops that they need to get. In that kind of game script, you’re going to want to own the RB1, and maybe even the RB2 of their offense.
Last year, Breece Hall was the main guy. In his rookie season, he dazzled. By week four he was starting, but by Week 7 he was out with a season-ending injury. It was what he did in those four weeks that has me sold on his upside and his floor. In Week 4 he gave us 17 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD vs. a tough Steelers run defense. The next week he finished as RB3 on the week with 97 yards on 18 carries for 1a TD and 2 catches for 100 yards. He followed that up with another RB3 finish with 116 yards rushing and another TD vs. Green Bay. Those are ceiling games. His floor is what we saw in the game he left early with an injury: 4 carries, 72 yards, and 1 TD. He’s simply a beast.
I have Breece Hall finishing as my RB11 for the year. The big question mark with Breece Hall is going to be how healthy he truly is. It used to take running backs two years to return to the player they used to be after tearing an ACL. Now? Well, guys seem to be coming back in 6 months. The Jets know they have a jewel in Breece Hall, so will they ease him into action? It’s a possibility, but even in that scenario, Hall is capable of breaking for big runs/catches, and he’s also going to get the high-value goal-line work. I feel very comfortable drafting Breece Hall as my RB1, and if he falls to you after the third round because of fears surrounding his injury, you should snap him up immediately.
Wide Receiver
I know Aaron Rodgers had Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb on his wish list of players for the Jets to pick up, but let’s make something very clear: Garrett Wilson is the WR1 of this offense. He’s only in his second year and he’s already a bonafide elite WR in my eyes. He can run every route on the route tree, take on any team’s CB1, and has both big play ability and possession receiver hands.
Last year, he garnered a 25% target share and finished top-10 in targets, even though he wasn’t an every-down player until Week 8 of last year. He’s a stud, and while Rodgers and Lazard have chemistry with each other, Wilson is the closest thing to Davante Adams in the Jets’ WR room.
I’d be comfortable drafting Wilson as my WR1, but to be honest, there are better options as your WR1 and I wouldn’t reach to go get him. As mentioned before, this is going to be a ground-and-pound team. While I expect Wilson to lead the team in targets, TDs, and yards, the fact remains that there are more high-powered offenses that you’ll want leverage for most of your fantasy needs at this position. Lazard will be drafted in the middle-to-late rounds, and Cobb can be found on the waiver wire, I’d bet. There’s even the possibility that Mecole Hardman takes the WR3 job out of Cobb’s hands. Time will tell, but Wilson and Lazard are the only draft-worthy WRs on this roster.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin. CJ Uzomah. That’s it. That’s what the Jets are working with at this position. Nothing to see here in terms of fantasy assets. Don’t waste your time looking at Rodgers’ past target share with TEs, or extrapolating whether or not Conklin/Uzomah are more talented than Mercedes Lewis and Robert Tonyan. Just keep it moving. You don’t need to draft a TE from the Jets this season. Maybe take a last-round flyer on Jeremy Ruckert, but it’s not like he was some unstoppable beast at Ohio State. Onward.
Defense/Special Teams
There aren’t many defenses that I’d consider drafting before my last pick in a draft, but this Jets defense is one of them. There is a reason why Aaron Rodgers made New York his go-to destination. He’d only need to be average to contend for a Championship. This is a three-and-out caliber defense with the best corner in the league, a beastly defensive line, and a powerful running game to control the clock and limit the amount of scoring opportunities that opposing offenses can have. Don’t go crazy, but this is one of probably four defenses I’d value above having depth at another skill position on my fantasy rosters.
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— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023