The trend throughout the history of the Arizona Fall League leans heavily on hitter talent, while pitching falls by the wayside. Last season, top prospects Jackson Jobe and Ricky Tiedemann made very brief appearances in the Desert before ceding to lesser-named prospects. This season’s crop of pitchers lacks star power, but some very talented arms are looking to make a name for themselves in the AFL. Here is an overview of the Top Pitching Prospects in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.
Top Pitching Prospects in the Arizona Fall League
Glendale Desert Dogs (CHW, STL, LAD, PHI, CIN)
It’s hard to grasp the capabilities of White Sox prospect Grant Taylor, an oft-injured right-hander, who has thrown just 19 1/3 professional innings. Taylor had Tommy John surgery that delayed his debut this season, and then a lat injury in June halted a promising start. Taylor struck out 32 hitters in his limited work compared to just two walks. His arsenal is comprised of two unique fastballs, a four-seamer in the mid-90s and a low-90s cutter. His slider is his best outpitch, adding a nice wrinkle from his high-powered fastball. Taylor is the highest quality arm in the AFL and could be a helium name entering 2025.
Wen Hui-Pan (PHI) appeared in 18 games this season, primarily at High-A, but missed a good chunk of the season following a broken finger on his throwing hand. He was highly effective in limited action, posting a 21.2% K-BB rate across 29 1/3 innings while limiting hitters to a .210 average against. Pan works out of the pen and has an intriguing combination of deception and bat-missing that could work in high-leverage situations. His arsenal features a devastating splitter that plays well off his mid-90s fastball.
The saga of Griff McGarry (PHI) is one of promise and frustration with little in between. McGarry has incredible arm talent and elite bat-missing ability. In his career, McGarry has 296 strikeouts in just 201 1/3 innings and has never posted a strikeout rate less than 20%. Unfortunately, his command is very problematic. A 17.4% career walk rate is atrocious, and he’s thrown just 58% of his pitches for strikes. This season, the Phillies organization shifted McGarry to the bullpen to resurrect his career. We will see how McGarry will be utilized in the AFL.
There was a time in the middle of the 2022 season when Connor Phillips had emerged as one of the preeminent arms in the Reds’ organization. Phillips posted a 31.7% K-rate in that 2022 season with a 3.78 ERA in 109 2/3 innings pitched. 2023 was more of the same, but the wheels have fallen off entirely in 2024. Control has been the most significant deterrent for Phillips, including a 13.7% career-walk rate and 5.58 walks per nine. Things got so bad this season that the Reds sent the 23-year-old back to the Complex to work on things, which is why he’s going to the AFL. Phillips has plenty of arm talent, but until his command improves, it’s merely that.
Dodgers right-hander Eriq Swan is an intriguing arm to monitor. The 2023 fourth-round pick has a high-powered arsenal headlined by a 100+ mph fastball, a sharp slider, and a changeup. Swan is a bit of a project after playing predominantly in the infield in his prep days. However, he saw significant velocity improvements at Middle Tennessee and parlayed that into his selection in the Draft. If Swan figures out the intricacies of pitching as a pro, he’s got upside.
Mesa Soler Sox (OAK, LAA, CHC, TBR, BOS)
A’s right-hander Micah Dallas rebounded in 2024 after a poor season last year. In 40 appearances, he pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings over three levels. Dallas had success in college, earning All-American honors as a freshman at Texas Tech before finishing his career at A&M. Dallas offers minimal strikeout upside but has good command and doesn’t beat himself. The lone issue with Dallas is that he’s flyball heavy, which comes with home run risk.
The Rays always have a surplus of talent in their system, and Alexander Alberto stands out in multiple ways. The 6’8″ right-hander is an imposing figure on the mound with incredible athleticism for his size. He offers three pitches: a mid-90s fastball, a cutter, and a slider. In a small sample in Low-A, Alberto posted a 16.1% swinging strike rate and 29.5% CSW. Conversely, he threw less than 60% of his pitches for strikes and just a 10.5% K-BB rate due to command issues. Alberto has just 22 innings outside of the Complex but has the frame and arsenal that the Rays can turn into gold.
When Rays’ pitcher TJ Fondtain stepped onto campus at San Diego State, he came as a highly-regarded two-way player who dazzled on the mound and played an excellent first base. The Aztecs never wavered from Fondtain’s desire to play both ways. Despite mild success at the dish, Fondtain was a budding star on the mound. He finished his career with a 3.59 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 165 1/3 innings. Fontaine was a two-time All-American and finalist for the John Olerud Award, which goes to the nation’s top two-way player. As a pro, Fondtain is exclusively a pitcher and polished off his 2024 season with a 3.38 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in 61 1/3 innings. The 6’5″ southpaw has a low-90s fastball, but his best offering is a double-plus changeup with great depth and fade.
The Red Sox are sending an uninspiring group to Arizona, but Zach Fogell had an excellent debut season in 2024. The 23-year-old lefty is a local kid from Providence and played collegiately at UConn. His stuff is manageable, but he suppresses hard contact and gets outs. Fogell finished 2024 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, elevated by a 12.2% walk rate. Fogell gives me Zach Penrod vibes. Penrod made his AFL debut last season and parlayed that into his MLB debut in September.
Peoria Javelinas (SDP, ATL, MIL, SEA, MIA)
Adam Maier (ATL) finally made his long-awaited professional debut in 2024, two years and one Tommy John surgery after being selected in the 2022 Draft. In 19 starts this season, he finished with a 4.10 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings. Maier had an upper-90s fastball pre-injury with two excellent offspeed pitches, a slider, and a changeup. His velocity hasn’t returned to pre-TJ levels, but the sinking action on the fastball has limited hard contact and resulted in a near-50% groundball rate. I’m just hopeful for a healthy Maier in the AFL.
Braves’ left-hander Hayden Harris heads to the Desert fresh off a 2024 season that culminated with a 36% strikeout rate in 42 2/3 innings of work. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has extra life due to his deception, while the slider is more of a change of pace. Harris misses plenty of bats with his fastball-slider combination, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
The Brewers have produced several exciting arms over the past few seasons, including Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. While the Brewers didn’t draft Coleman Crow, now is the time to put their stamp on his development. Crow was acquired from the Mets (via the Angels) in December but missed all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. Crow was solid in three seasons with the Angels organization, pitching to a 4.33 ERA with 221 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings. Crow’s fastball sits in the low 90s with no distinguishing features, but he has two offspeed pitches that are plus or better, his curve and slider. Crow will use the AFL to build up and return to a starting rotation arm in 2025.
The American baseball world has yet to see what Marlins’ righty Jun-Seok Shim brings to the table on the mound. He missed all of 2024 due to an injury and only threw four innings last season after he signed with the Pirates. The Marlins acquired Shim as part of the Bryan de La Cruz trade this summer and are eager to see him in the AFL. Shim has prototypical hesitation in his delivery but an atypical power arsenal. His fastball sits in the upper 90s, and his curveball is an absolute 12-6 hammer. The main question about Shim is durability after consecutive injuries and a track record of arm issues in Korea.
Salt River Rafters (ARI, COL, WSH, MIN, NYY)
Yu-Min Lin is the best pitcher in the Diamondbacks organization and will test his mettle in the AFL. Lin spent most of his season at Double-A, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 91 innings. Although he’s just 21, Lin has reached 150 innings at Double-A and joined Triple-A late in the season. Physically, he is frail, standing 5’11 and 160 lbs, but Lin’s arsenal is robust. Lin has at least five offerings, with his changeup being the most effective and producing the most whiffs. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he throws a cutter, curve, and slider. Lin has a 28% career strikeout rate with a walk-rate below 10% but tends to allow plenty of hard contact and allowed a career-high 14 homers this season.
I had optimism surrounding Diamondbacks right-hander Dylan Ray entering 2024 following a solid 2023 season. Ray made 22 starts with a near-30% strikeout rate in ’23, his first full season removed from Tommy John. 2024 did not go as planned, as Ray struggled in Double-A. He missed the first two months of the season after a forearm strain; then his command went awry. Ray’s walk rate jumped nearly 4%, while his strikeouts dropped over 6%. Ray has a mid-rotation upside when everything goes right, but as with any pitcher, command is the key. I’m hopeful that Ray can get past the forearm injury and throw well in the AFL.
Three words strike fear in the heart of fantasy baseball owners: Rockies pitching prospect. That’s exactly what Gabriel Hughes is. But, as the 10th overall pick in 2022, Hughes never got an opportunity to change the narrative. He threw just 69 2/3 professional innings before Tommy John surgery left him sidelined from July 2023 to the present. The AFL will be his first mound action in 15 months. Hughes has a mid-90s fastball with an above-average slider and developing curveball. If Hughes can regain his pre-TJ form, the 6’4″, 220 right-hander could be on a fast track to the Majors.
Kade Bragg (MIN) is a name to keep an eye on. Bragg was a D-II standout at Angelo State, where he was a First Team All-American and National Pitcher of the Year in 2023. He went 15-1 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 30.2% strikeout that season and was selected in the 17th round of the Draft. Bragg pitched just 8 1/3 innings this season in the Complex League but struck out nine of the 34 batters he faced. Bragg isn’t overpowering but features a low-90s fastball with arm-side run as well as a slider and changeup. It will be interesting to see Bragg face higher-quality hitters in the AFL.
Scottsdale Scorpions (SFG, TOR, NYM, PIT, DET)
Left-hander Kendry Rojas (TOR) dominated High-A hitters in 2024. Rojas, who turns 22 in November, made ten starts, pitching to a 2.43 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings. He generated a 16.3% swinging strike rate and 30% CSW while showing excellent command (5.3% BB rate). Rojas has improved his fastball velocity each of the past two seasons and sits in the mid-90s. He also features a slider and changeup. A shoulder injury limited him this season, and the AFL will be utilized to stretch Rojas back out ahead of 2025.
25-year-old Lazaro Estrada (TOR) joins his teammate Rojas in Arizona. Estrada, who just signed an extension with the Jays, has shown promise since joining the organization in 2018. Estrada dominated at High-A this season, posting a 1.96 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. He struggled a bit at Double-A (4.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) to close the season, but Estrada should be an intriguing name to monitor this Fall.
Mike Burrows is another one in a long list of pitching developmental success stories in the Pirates organization. Burrows was an 11th-round pick in 2018 but has battled numerous injuries throughout his career, including Tommy John surgery in 2023. In his return this season, he made 15 starts with 59 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings and made his MLB debut. Burrows has a good command of his three pitches, which are headlined by an upper-90s fastball and an excellent curve. I expect Burrows to get a healthy dose of innings in the Fall and be a fallback option for the Pirates in 2025.
Tigers southpaw Jake Miller completely dominated across three levels this season. He finished his season 9-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in a relief role. Over 87 1/3 innings, Miller had a 30.4% strikeout rate with a 5% walk rate. Miller uses deception to maximize his mid-90s fastball and a tight slider that has flashed as a plus offering. With a strong performance in the AFL, the Tigers should give the 23-year-old an extended look next Spring in a similar bulk relief role.
Surprise Saguaros (HOU, CLE, BAL, TEX, KCR)
Astros right-hander Jose Fleury is the best player in the organization heading to the AFL. The Dominican-born 22-year-old made 19 appearances this season with 77 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings pitched, primarily at Double-A after bypassing High-A. Fleury is headed to the AFL to recoup some lost innings after a two-month absence due to a thigh injury. Fleury features a low-90s fastball with outstanding IVB, a plus changeup, and two different breaking balls. With his ability to miss bats, Fleury may be a midseason option for the Astros in 2025.
Rangers righty Skylar Hales is bringing his high-powered fastball to the AFL. The heater routinely sits in the upper-90s and reaches triple digits with ease. His fastball misses plenty of bats, largely due to a deceptive delivery, which hides the ball well before it explodes on the hitter. Hales pitched out of the pen at two levels this season, posting 66 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings, including a 2.10 ERA in Double-A.
Royals farmhand Luinder Avila is on my radar this Fall. Avila pitched well at Double-A this season, going 6-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings. His two-pitch arsenal relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider, but command has been an issue. He has a 10% career walk rate and has never shown signs of improvement. Although he works in the rotation, I view Avila as a reliever who has the stuff to work in a high-leverage bullpen role.