Running backs are the backbones of our CFF rosters, as you need to be producing at least 20 PPG on a weekly basis from each RB spot to avoid falling behind due to the immense firepower at the position. Below is an overview of the distribution of running back production over the last five full seasons.
CFF Running Back Primer and Historical Analysis
2018
- RBs w/1,000 Yards = 59 (35 P5/24 G5)
- RBs with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs = 42 (26 P5/16 G5)
- RBs with 200+ Carries = 45 (25 P5/ 20 G5)
- RBs w/30 Receptions = 16 (8 P5 /8 G5 )
- RBs w/300+ Receiving Yards = 18 (7 P5/11 G5)
- RBs w/1,000 Rush Yards/300+ Receiving Yards = 1 (CJ Verdell) – #2 Elijah Mitchell (973 rush yards).
- Rushers with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs with less than 200 carries = 10
2019
- RBs w/1,000 Yards = 51(22 P5/29 G5)
- RBs with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs = 32 (14 P5/18 G5)
- RBs with 200+ Carries = 56 (24 P5/27 G5)
- RBs w/30 Receptions = 24 (13 P5/11 G5)
- RBs w/300+ Receiving Yards = 19 (P5 11/G5 8)
- RBs w/1,000 Rush Yards/300+ Receiving Yards = 7 (Najee/Jonathan Ward/CJ Marable/Kenneth Gainwell/Etienne/Z. Moss/CEH)
- Rushers with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs with less than 200 carries = 7
2021
- RBs w/1,000 Yards = 51 (30 P5/20 G5)
- RBs with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs = 33 (22 P5/11 G5)
- RBs with 200+ Carries = 39 (22 P5/17 G5)
- RBs w/30 Receptions = 22 (17 P5/5 G5)
- RBs w/300+ Receiving Yards = 16 | Returning 300+ Rec RBs = 9
- RBs w/1,000 Rush Yards/300+ Receiving Yards = 9
- Rushers with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs with less than 200 carries = 6 (Rachaad White, Shermari Jones, Ty Chandler, Bijan, Braelon Allen, Kennedy Brooks) (Just Allen remains in college)
- Top-20 RBs who did not have 10 TDs: 1
2022
- RBs w/1,000 Yards = 40 (20 P5/20 G5)
- RBs with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs = 28 (15 P5/13 G5)
- RBs with 200+ Carries = 37 (17 P5/20 G5)
- RBs w/30 Receptions = 27 (20 P5/7 G5)
- RBs w/300+ Receiving Yards = 14 | Returning 300+ Rec RBs = 7 (17 Returning RBs w/250+ Rec Yards)
- RBs w/1,000 Rush Yards/300+ Receiving Yards = 3 (5 if you count Valladay (289 Receiving Yds) and Irving (299 Rec Yds)
- Rushers with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs with less than 200 carries = 2 – Nicholas Singleton with 156 carries for 1,057 yards and 12 TDs | Zach Charbonnet 194 carries for 1,358 yards and 14 TDs
- Top-20 RBs who did not have 10 TDs: 2 Deuce Vaughn – 9 | Frank Gore Jr. – 9
2023
- RBs w/1,000 Yards = 41 (24 P5/17 G5)
- RBs with 1,000 Yards + 10 TDs = 31 (15 P5/13 G5)
- RBs with 200+ Carries = 28 (15 P5/13 G5)
- RBs w/30 Receptions = 20 (12 P5/8 G5) | 25+ Receptions = 41 (23 P5/18 G5)
- RBs w/300+ Receiving Yards = 15 | Returning 300+ Rec RBs = 9
- RBs w/250+ Rec Yards = 41 (25 P5/16 G5) | 16 RBs returning with 250+
- RBs w/1,000 Rush Yards & 300+ Receiving Yards = 6 | 3 Returning = Ashton Jeanty, DJ Giddens, Ollie Gordon
Running Back Usage
Volume is becoming increasingly important when it comes to projecting CFF breakouts. In the last 4 seasons, this is how many players accrued 1,000 yards/10 TDs without receiving 200+ carries each year:
2018 – 10 RBs with 1,000/10 and less than 200 carries
2019 – 7
2021 – 6
2022 – 2 (Singleton and Charbonnet)
2023 – 8
2024 – 9 (4 P5/5 G5) | 2 Returning – Jacory Croskey-Merrit and Peny Boone (Both 2023 G5 RBs on new teams this year)
The downward trends in producing high-end fantasy rushers despite limited usage also coincides with the 32% reduction (59 in 2018-to-41 in 2023) in 1,000-yard running backs over the last ½ decade:
2018: 59 1,000-yard backs
2019: 51
2021: 51
2022: 40
2023: 41
On the inverse, college teams are targeting their primary RBs more often:
2018: 16 RBs with 30+ Receptions
2019: 24
2021: 22
2022: 27
2023: 20
The 50-Point Principle
The 41% increase in high-usage receiving RBs, and the subsequent 32% decrease in 1,000-yard rushers, over the past 5 years can largely be attributed to the Air Raid-ification of the collegiate game.
- 16 of the top-23 returning rushers from last year secured 20+ receptions.
- In 2022, 15 of the top 20 Point Per Game PPR RBs caught at least 20+ passes.
- In 2021, of the top-11 leading rushers, six of them had 30 receptions and 300 receiving yards on the year.
- Interestingly, just 19 of the 61 (31%) RBs who caught 30 or more passes over the last three seasons attended Group of Five programs.
The superior passing acumen of Power Five-level quarterbacks was a clear asset in projecting P5 Wide Receivers compared to their G5 counterparts, and it appears that is the case with RB receiving production as well. It will be interesting to see if that 3-to-1 gap between Rec P5 and G5 backs persists for a fourth-straight campaign.
CFF RBs with 50-Point upside in 2023
With the 50-Point Principle in mind, let’s look back at the Running Backs I identified as having 50-Point Principle upside heading into 2023, along with their 2022 receiving contributions:
- Edward Saydee, Temple: 37 Recs | 267 Rec Yds | 0 TDs = 63.7 Receiving Points
- Devin Mockobee, Purdue: 32 Recs | 274 Rec Yds | 0 TDs = 59.4 Receiving Points
- Frank Peasant, MTSU: 27 Recs | 278 Rec Yds | 2 TDs = 66.8 Receiving Points
- Nakia Watson, Wazzu: 30 Recs | 295 Rec Yds | 4 TDs = 83.5 Receiving Points
- Bucky Irving, Oregon: 31 Recs | 299 Rec Yds | 3 TDs = 79.9 Receiving Points
- Lincoln Pare, Texas State: 29 Recs | 229 Rec Yards | 1TD = 58.8 Receiving Points
- Shadrick Byrd, UNC-Charlotte: 21 Recs | 222 Rec Yards | 1 TD = 49.2 Receiving Points
- Josh Henderson, Indiana: 24 Recs | 274 Rec Yards | 4 TDs = 75.8 Receiving Points
- Jalen White, Georgia State: 20 Recs | 217 Rec Yards | 1 TD = 48.7 Receiving Points
- Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech: 26 Recs | 164 Rec Yards | 1 TD = 48.4 Receiving Points
- RJ Harvey, UCF: 22 Recs | 215 Rec Yards | 0 TDs = 43.5 Receiving Points
- Jaden Nixon, Oklahoma State: 20 Recs | 189 Rec Yards | 3 TDs = 56.9 Receiving Points
Notable smash hits from this list include Tahj Brooks, RJ Harvey, Bucky Irving and Jalen White. Mockobee had his moments of startability too, as did Frank Peasant before he got injured, though his receiving efficiency dropped substantially, catching just 18-of-27 passes with 3 drops in eight games. Peasant’s lack of fantasy relevance stemmed from poor performance rather than opportunity.
Returning RBs with 50 Point Principle upside for 2024 and their 2023 Regular Season Receiving production
- Marion Lukes, Central Michigan: 29-of-33 Recs | 299 Rec Yds | 0 TDs = 58.9 Receiving Points
- Dylan Edwards, Kansas State: 36-of-50 Recs | 299 Rec Yds | 4 TDs = 79.9 Receiving Points
- Roman Hemby, Maryland: 37-of-44 Recs | 288 Rec Yds | 3 TDs = 73.8 Receiving Points
- Cameron Skattebo, Arizona State: 24-of-33 Recs | 286 Rec Yds | 1 TD = 58.6 Receiving Points
- Jonah Coleman, Washington: 24-of-27 Recs | 277 Rec Yds | 1 TD = 57.5 Receiving Points
- John Gentry, Sam Houston State: 36-of-40 Recs | 275 Rec Yds | 2 TDs = 75.5 Receiving Points
- Quali Conley, Arizona: 25-of-34 Recs | 246 Rec Yds | 0 TDs = 49.6 Receiving Points
- Montrell Johnson, Florida: 30-of-41 Recs | 236 Rec Yds | 1 TD = 59.6 Receiving Points
- Dylan Sampson, Tennessee: 17-of-21 Recs | 175 Rec Yds | 1 TD = 40.5 Receiving Points
- Kobe Pace, Virginia: 18-of-24 Recs | 167 Rec Yds | 3 TDs = 52.7 Receiving Points
- Devin Mockobee, Purdue: 19-of-21 Recs | 177 Rec Yds | 1 TDs = 42.7 Receiving Points
- Ja’Quez Cross, Arkansas State: 21-of-25 Recs | 132 Rec Yds | 0 TDs = 33.2 Receiving Points
Let’s break down a few of these 50 PPG RBs who are being selected in Round 9 or later in recent drafts:
Jonah Coleman, Washington
A three-star Stockton, CA product, Coleman earned an immediate role as a true freshman, logging 13 carries for 40 yards in his first collegiate contest against San Diego State. While he displayed balance, body control, and fleet footwork that belies his stocky 5’9/225-pound frame, Coleman only put up chunk gains of 15+ yards twice in 75 carries (2.6%) with a disappointing 18% breakaway rate.
He was expected to spell incumbent starting RB Michael Wiley in short-yardage situations last year until Wiley got banged up which opened the door for Coleman to assume a larger role. He proceeded to average 6.8 yards per carry over 127 totes with a staggering 5.2 yards after contact average that ranked #1 overall nationally and a 56% breakaway rate that slotted fifth overall. He wasn’t a one-trick pony either, reeling in 24-of-27 passes for 277 yards and a 1.57 yards per route average that ranked 10th in FBS. He also led the nation in scrimmage yards per touch (7.8) and was a potent passing downs weapon, leading the country with 11 receptions on third-down. And he did all that despite essentially playing only eight full games due to injury and light usage in the early season (8 carries in the first 3 games).
This year Coleman follows HC Jedd Fisch over to Washington who moves to the Big Ten with 6 returning starters while facing the nation’s 21st toughest schedule, which limits his startability to 8-of-14 weeks. His backfield competition is nonexistent, with program stalwart Cameron Davis as his clear backup and a bevy of youngsters jockeying for position behind them. Coleman is destined for a 200+ carry load and 30+ receptions as the primary ground option for the Huskies if he remains healthy. Underdog best ball drafters be wary, as Coleman plays UCLA/BYE/@Oregon during the Weeks 12-14 playoff stretch.
Montrell Johnson, Florida
A longtime disciple of Florida HC Billy Napier, Montrell Johnson (5’11/213) followed Napier from the University of Louisiana with the intention of chasing SEC glory. Despite the leap in competition, Johnson has logged over 150 carries for 800+ yards in each of the last two campaigns while averaging 5.4 YPC as a co-starter alongside Trevor Etienne. He managed to set a career-high with 3.53 yards after contact while also reeling in 30 receptions, one of only 12 players to hit that mark in the regular season, and drawing the eighth-most targets in the country.
This year, Etienne moves on to Georgia, leaving Johnson as the established starter who should carve out a more prominent role, though we should see Treyaun Webb and Jadan Baugh receive plenty of second-string snaps. The Gators return four starting offensive linemen and two very talented transfers for a total of 80 career starts, which is a drastic improvement over last season when they returned just one starter and dropped from 200 rush YPG in 2022 to 150 YPG last year. While Florida plays one of the toughest schedules in the country, it’s Year 3 for Napier and he has an experienced roster stocked with his own hand-picked SEC-caliber talent.
I think the Gators can score 30+ PPG and accumulate 450 total yards per game, and they’ve got a competitive, bye-free Best Ball playoff stretch against LSU/Ole Miss/@Florida State. Johnson is a high-floor RB who is ideally suited for Best Ball formats where the brutal schedule doesn’t present a string of start/sit gut calls throughout the season.
Dylan Sampson, Tennessee
A former four-star prospect who was considered the 24th overall running back from the 2022 prep cycle, Sampson (5’11/192) has an explosive track profile similar to departed Miami Dolphins RB Jalen Wright, having run a blazing 10.48s 100-meter time in high school. He has earned the trust of HC Josh Heupel, biding his time behind Jabari Small and Wright, both of whom are no longer on the team roster. He has averaged 6.0 yards per carry and a strong 3.71 YAC on 165 carries while breaking tackles on 25% of his rush attempts through his first two seasons.
Though he played a secondary role in the UT offense Sampson picked up a first down on 31% of his carries, which ranked 9th among Power Five rushers, and was targeted in the red zone six times, which was the second-most targets of any P5 RB despite being a part-time player. The Vols threw 32% of their passes at-or-behind the line of scrimmage, which ranked 15th in FBS, with 17.7% of their overall targets going to running backs (37th | Nat Avg. = 15.4%). The Vols also run at a 37.6% clip on passing downs (40th in FBS) which are advantageous rushing situations for running backs.
Tennessee has run for 218, 199, and 205 rushing yards per game over the HC Heupel era, and Sampson will be running behind a UT offensive line that returns four starters, 80 line starts and was a Joe Moore Award Semi-Finalist last season. They also move from a pocket passer to new QB Nico Iamaleava who ran for three touchdowns in the bowl and will keep defenses on edge in RPO situations, which will open lanes for Sampson to use his sprinter-speed to hit a few home runs. While HC Heupel is infamous for rotating his backs, Sampson received 20 carries for 133 yards in the bowl game against Iowa. He’s a matchup-proof RB2 at that volume at a considerable value relative to his rush/receiving prowess.
In summation, the CFF RB landscape is shifting in accordance with the changes in offensive philosophy at the college level. The foundational basis for drafting CFF running backs is to achieve as much volume as possible, with the expectation that the fantasy production will follow. However, with the role of the college running back evolving, we must adapt and tailor our draft approach towards gathering as many high-upside receiving backs in the later portions of your draft as we can cobble together once the projectable, high-volume rushers have been taken.
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