Major League Baseball general managers are constantly trying to improve their starting rotation to compete for a title. Fantasy Baseball involves a lot of similar thinking. It’s very hard to win a fantasy championship and nearly impossible to do it without a few studs in the rotation. If you were lucky enough to roster any of these three pitchers down the stretch of the 2023 season, you saw yourself in a prime position to compete for a title. Will these second-half fantasy surgers be able to repeat their success in 2024? Let’s find out…
3 MLB Pitchers Who Were Studs in the Second Half
Grayson Rodriguez, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
In the second half duds piece, we touched on how Astros youngster Hunter Brown had a disappointing finish following a strong start. Rodriguez was the opposite. After a ghastly start to the season that resulted in a demotion, Rodriguez took off when he returned to the big leagues and teased managers with performances that could mean big things for the 2024 season.
It would be hard to describe Rodriguez as anything other than a stud in the second half of 2023. He held hitters to a .227/.284/.306 batting line with a 25% strikeout rate and 62 OPS+. Rodriguez also only gave up just three second-half home runs. He walked 21 batters which is the same as the first half but did it over three more games and almost 100 more plate appearances respectively. His 2.58 ERA would have been the second lowest in the MLB if he was able to do it over a full season.
There are many reasons to be excited about Rodriguez as we look ahead to 2024. First, he has the draft and prospect rankings to back up his performance. This isn’t a case where a player comes out of nowhere and we are unsure if it is a flash in the pan. Rodriguez is the former number 11 overall pick and topped out as the #6 prospect in all of baseball. Scouts have long loved his tools and they seem to be paying off. If Rodriguez can keep his strikeout rate and ERA in the ballpark of his second-half performance while continuing to limit the long ball you have a frontline fantasy starter in 2024.
Sonny Gray, RHP, St.Louis Cardinals
Gray is a pretty well-known commodity at this point in his career. Following a disastrous stint with the Yankees, he has been able to turn his career around and become a solid starter again. Even though we are familiar with Gray’s game, that doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate it when he has a great stretch.
Historically speaking, Gray has been a stud in the second half of seasons throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, he has been better in the second half than in the first (Something to keep in mind come the 2024 trade deadline) and this year was no different.
Over 14 starts in the second half, Gray held opposing batters to a .217/.316/.582 slash line white significantly reducing his walks from 39 in the first half to 16 in the second. Gray only allowed 8 home runs all season, his 0.391 Home runs per 9IP was the lowest in baseball. The next closest was Justin Steele with .727. His ability to keep the ball in the park is one of his biggest perks.
With Gray having been around a while, we have a pretty good idea of how his statistics should look in 2024. You’ll get around 150-175 innings with an ERA in the mid 3’s. The biggest change for 2024 will be his team. Gray signed with the Cardinals in free agency after two years in Minnesota. According to Statcast Park Factors, Busch Stadium plays slightly more pitcher-friendly than Target Field. Gray’s ability to keep the ball in the park and limit hard contact should become an even bigger weapon as he ages in a bigger ballpark.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta was a popular sleeper heading into 2023 and while he was solid, it was a bit disappointing if you were hoping for him to be able to lead your rotation in the first half. Well, in the back half of the season, he did just that. Opposing batters had a .184 batting average over 13 starts. Combine that with a 2.81 ERA and 103 strikeouts, Peralta was a true difference maker in the second half.
There is nothing in Peralta’s advanced metrics to imply that he won’t be able to be a front-line starter in 2024. He was in the 92% in both K rate and Whiff rate, all of that while also posting the best Walk% of his career by far at 7.9%. If he can keep his electric strikeout stuff and pair it with improved command, you could be looking at a league winner.
Outlook
It is never too early to identify your guys for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Looking at second-half statistics can be a valuable tool because it provides a large enough sample size. If there is evidence that can help prove a second-half breakout wasn’t just a fluke then you are already a leg up on your league-mates. Get aggressive and identify your guys to put yourself in the best position to compete.
Getting that itch already? Give it a good scratch and jump into a Best Ball League on Fantrax! All the uncertainty that comes with an MLB offseason makes Best Ball leagues the best way to get an early start on the 2024 fantasy baseball season.