Again we’re diving into some small sample size stat-lines from last season that paint a more welcoming picture for 2024. The players I talk about in this article have favorable profiles to repeat or even improve on their 2023 growth. I again would like to advise that it is your choice to trust a small sample size, and doing so bears some inherent risk. But given the fact we’re all looking for the next hidden gem, sometimes the small sample size stat-lines point out where to look next. Below are three players who I like to improve in 2024, and produce above their draft day costs.
Small Sample Sizes to Buy Into
Just a reminder, no one us expecting these players to replicate the paces from their 2023 paces. The extrapolated stats though are fun to dream on and, in this case, I think they point to very good things in 2024 fantasy baseball.
Logan O’Hoppe – C, LAA
If you’re like me, you avoid spending a mid-to-high round draft pick on a catcher and prefer to grab “whoever wants to play” toward the end of your draft. If this is your annual strategy, good news! You can have the best of both worlds with Logan O’Hoppe. Through a 199 plate appearance sample, O’Hoppe played at a 46-homer pace over a full season.
Yes, catchers rarely get 650 plate appearances, so don’t expect this output to actually happen in 2024. The point is that O’Hoppe is a dirt cheap power option and has a reasonable shot at 30 homers along with some triple slash improvement as he gains more experience. Catcher is usually the last offensive position I address, and O’Hoppe will definitely be an appealing target late in drafts for me.
Christopher Morel – DH/IF/OF, CHC
While 429 plate appearances isn’t exactly a small sample size, it’s also not a full season, and a lot of people missed how good Christopher Morel was last year. Had he received 650 plate appearances, Morel could’ve put up nearly 40 homers and over 100 RBI. Depending on your league, Morel may be eligible to play both IF and OF positions next year. Additionally, he’s only 24, so there’s room to grow. He has a considerable swing-and-miss aspect to his game, but it doesn’t bother me when he has 30 + homer upside at multiple positions. Morel is likely ranked closer to the 200th player off most draft boards going into 2024, though his upside could place him closer to 150th. He’s an easy buy late in drafts.
Noelvi Marte – 3B, CIN
Noelvi Marte was yet another rookie who debuted for Cincinnati last season and found success early. In a small sample of 123 plate appearances, Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 as a 21-year-old. His production extrapolated to 650 plate appearances would give him roughly an 80-run, 20-homer, 80-RBI profile, but what stands out to me is a 32-steal pace. He’s being ranked lower than pick 200 potentially due to concerns about his current hamstring injury suffered over 1 month ago in the Dominican Winter League. There’s also the potential log jam the Reds have with their infield. Pay attention to these points before your draft, but without these concerns, I see no reason not to reach on him 50+ picks before his current ADP.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.