When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving toward draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why today will be a part of positional examinations of injury risk. I will be going through the Injury History of the top players at every position and making notes of their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk for injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are the projected closers for each team in baseball.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
- a big thank you to Mike Carter for helping me organize this list.
Closer Injury Risk for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Once you get done here make sure to check out the full Injury Risk Series.
Paul Sewald – Arizona Diamondbacks
Sewald has a pretty clean track record, despite seven years of pitching. He did have a minor cleanup procedure done on his elbow and heel after the 2022 season. Still, that didn’t stop him from appearing in 78 games last year including the post-season. Draft with confidence.
Raisel Iglesias – Atlanta Braves
Iglesias ran into his first injury problem in years last season. He began the season on the Injured List after experiencing shoulder inflammation in March. He returned to make his debut in May and didn’t look back. He finished the year looking like a slightly downgraded version of his normal self, but also as someone capable of being an everyday closer. Draft with confidence.
Craig Kimbrel – Baltimore Orioles
Kimbrel has been around for years, and he has learned how to pitch into his elder years. He had some injury scares in the 2019 season where he suffered inflammation in his knee and his elbow. Since then, he has suffered only minor bumps and bruises that come with pitching every day or two. He will be 36 years old next season. Draft with confidence.
Kenley Jansen – Boston Red Sox
Jansen threw twenty fewer innings in 2023 than he did in 2022. Late in the season, he needed to be pulled from a game due to fatigue and an illness. A few days after that initial pull, he was placed on the Injured List for becoming ill with COVID-19. All of this, alongside the new pitch clock rule, gives some pause when assessing Jansen. He was known to be one of the slowest pitchers before the new clock rules, so it’s curious to see that his workload diminished. There’s also a chance that, at age 35 last year, he was playing through injuries. In August he suffered a hamstring ailment that he may have played off as not serious. Keep in mind too that he will be 36 years old, and the pitch clock will be even shorter for pitchers when runners are on base. All of this raises red flags, coupled with the fact that he’s missed time in the past due to irregular heartbeats. Draft with caution.
Adbert Alzolay – Chiacgo Cubs
Alzolay had a breakout of sorts in 2023, yet his injury history is quite long. In 2021 he was a starter for the Cubs, pitching 21 times out of their rotation. He suffered workload injuries such as a blister and a hamstring strain before missing most of the 2022 season with a lat strain. He came back as a long reliever and then eventually settled in as the team’s closer in 2023. Late in the year, he went on the Injured List with a forearm strain that was considered to be more serious than it was. He returned before the end of the season to throw one inning. He has the stuff to be as dynamic as anyone, but will his body hold up? Draft with attention.
Gregory Santos – Chicago White Sox
Santos was flung into the role of the White Sox closer after the injury to Liam Hendriks. He came in and did a decent job for the most part, converting five saves on nine opportunities. It was revealed later in the year that he had elbow inflammation and would miss a significant amount of time. The hope was that he would be ready for Spring Training, but GM Chris Getz mentioned over the Winter Meetings that it might not happen since he just started his throwing program in December. It sounds like this is a serious injury with a slow road to recovery. Draft with attention.
Alexis Díaz – Cincinnati Reds
Diaz has remained relatively healthy over his two years with the Reds. He suffered through a minor bout of bicep tendinitis in 2022 but came back strong. He has solidified himself as one of the best closers in all of baseball. Draft with confidence.
Emmanuel Clase – Cleveland Guardians
Clase has been quite healthy over his tenure as the Guardians’ closer. Other than a lat strain during the 2020 season, he has not needed any time off for injury. His performance has diminished over time, and that could mean a future injury, but that’s more of a “going out on a limb” statement than anything. He is a safe bet to close for a long time while healthy. Draft with confidence.
Justin Lawrence – Colorado Rockies
Lawrence had only one minor episode of a rolled ankle late in the 2023 season, which cost him a brief period. Otherwise, he has remained healthy. Non-injury-related, he was suspended in 2020 for PEDs, so if anything happens again, he would miss a full season’s worth of games. Draft with confidence.
Alex Lange – Detroit Tigers
Lange missed almost a month in 2021 with a shoulder strain but has since been relatively healthy. Last season he pitched a Major League career-high of 66 innings for the Tigers, though he does have plenty of 100+ inning seasons in the minors. Draft with confidence.
Ryan Pressly – Houston Astros
Pressly has been the team’s closer for four straight years and has done a wonderful job at that. All that being said, he does have a history of injuries. In 2019, he had arthroscopic knee surgery to fix a lingering issue. That knee has held up quite well over the years, but he did begin feeling pain in it late in the 2021 season and took time off for it to begin the 2022 season. This, alongside a stiff neck, caused Pressly to throw 48 innings that year. The good news is that he came back in a big way this last season. He bounced back up to 65 games pitched and 65.1 innings thrown. He seems locked in and ready to do the same in 2024, though his past needs to be remembered. There is a risk for a reduced role, but that is based on the addition of josh Hader and not because of the injury risk or history. Draft with confidence.
James McArthur – Kansas City Royals
McArthur came to the Royals after a disappointing season with the Phillies’ farm teams. He was transferred to the 60-day Injured List by Philadelphia in 2022 for a stress reaction in his right elbow but came out flying for the Royals. He converted four saves, two holds and a win for them. Draft with confidence.
Carlos Estévez – Los Angeles Angels
Estevez had an up-and-down career with the Rockies. Over his six years in Colorado, he went on the Injured List four times for five injuries. He bounced back with 63 healthy appearances in 2023 in his debut season with the Angels. He got better as the season progressed too. Draft with confidence.
Evan Phillips – Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillips had his injury problems happen more than two years ago when he suffered through elbow inflammation and a strained quadriceps injury in back-to-back seasons. Since then, he has thrown 120+ innings over two seasons and evolved as the Dodgers’ closer last year. Draft with confidence.
Tanner Scott – Miami Marlins
Scott had a rough 2021 season when suffered a sprained right knee injury late in the summer. It lingered with him until to end of the season. Since then, he’s only suffered minor bumps and bruises that required very minimal maintenance to the tune of a day or two off. There are some workload concerns here, as he just finished his 2023 season with 78 innings pitched, which is the highest of his professional career. Something to keep an eye on for next year, but nothing imminent right now. Draft with confidence.
Devin Williams – Milwaukee Brewers
Williams had a scary 2021 season that was filled with injuries. After pitching through a very busy 2020 season, Williams fell ill due to COVID-19 as well as suffered injuries to his elbow, calf, and hand. Concerning the last injury, he missed the entire 2021 postseason after punching a wall while intoxicated, as he was celebrating his team’s win. He has bounced back nicely over the last two seasons, giving hope to all who had drafted him. He is likely to continue this reign as the Brewers’ top option for saves in 2024. Draft with confidence.
Jhoan Duran – Minnesota Twins
Duran has had a relatively clean slate of time while with the Twins. Before his promotion, he missed almost the entire 2021 season due to a forearm injury. He also suffered a hamstring injury during the time of this past World Baseball Classic Series, resulting in him missing the tournament. During the regular season, however, he has been a steady source of playing time and saves for the Twins. Draft with confidence.
Edwin Díaz – New York Mets
Diaz missed the entire 2023 season because of a ruptured patellar tendon that required surgery. He suffered this during the World Baseball Classic but is now fully healthy. He is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Draft with confidence.
Clay Holmes – New York Yankees
Holmes has a long history of injuries in a somewhat short time. He suffered a broken foot and a forearm strain while with the Pirates. Both of these injuries were long-term and cost him a lot of time. After moving to the Yankees, he lost time due to COVID-19 as well as spending time on the Injured List for back pain. He did, however, finish the 2023 season injury-free, which was a promising outcome. Draft with attention.
Mason Miller – Oakland Athletics
Miller is the leading candidate to save for the Athletics, though he is among a few others. For the sake of this exercise, Miller spent most of the 2023 season on the Injured List due to tightness in his right forearm and a UCL sprain. He returned after a long and cautious absence and pitched out of the bullpen. There is some belief that this will be his role going forward. His professional ball history does not have a lot of innings logged into it. While he did pitch a ton in college (239.0 innings), he only has another 39 innings while within the A’s organization. Some of this has to do with the fact that he suffered a scapula injury that cost him a lot of time in 2022. Draft with attention.
José Alvarado – Philadelphia Phillies
Alvarado continues to get better and better every year that he’s with the Phillies. His ERA dropped in every one of the three seasons he’s been in Philadelphia. Unfortunately too, so have his innings pitched and appearances. He has been placed on the Injured List with a left elbow issue three times as a member of the Phillies. This was preceded by both left elbow and left shoulder injuries while a member of the Rays both saw him get that ailment transferred to the 60-day Injured List. His velocity has dropped (slightly) in each of the last three years too. It feels like something might give at some point. Draft with caution.
David Bednar – Pittsburgh Pirates
Bednar had some back problems during the 2022 season but otherwise has been a workhorse for the Pirates. He threw a career-high 67.1 innings this past season, which is two away from his 2018 season in High-A Lake Elsinore. Draft with confidence.
Ryan Helsely – St. Louis Cardinals
Helsley has had a ton of right arm and elbow issues throughout the years. He’s suffered through shoulder impingement, a procedure on his knee, a stress reaction on his right elbow, and a strained right forearm. While he is the Cardinals’ closer, it is not a lock that he stays healthy. He has thrown more than 60 innings in a season only once since 2018 and only once as a Cardinal. Draft with attention.
Woo-Suk Go – San Diego Padres
Go comes to the Padres as a big offseason signing and is in the mix to be the team’s closer. His 2023 numbers were a bit lower than usual because of shoulder and back injuries. He does have 275.1 innings on his resume over five seasons in Korea. Draft with confidence.
Camilo Doval – San Francisco Giants
Doval has pitched back-to-back seasons with 67.2 innings of work in each. He is as solid as they come and one of the league’s best closers. Draft with confidence.
Andrés Muñoz – Seattle Mariners
Muñoz has only been around for three seasons and one additional outing, yet his injury history is quite extensive. Not only has he had Tommy John Surgery, but he also suffered a setback in his rehab. He wound up pitching just 0.2 innings of work over one outing in 2021. Furthermore, he had off-season foot surgery before last season’s debut and he suffered two shoulder injuries in-season as well. It’s one thing after another for the talented pitcher who is struggling to have an injury-free year. Draft with caution.
Pete Fairbanks – Tampa Bay Rays
Fairbanks has been facing an uphill battle for quite a while. Already with two Tommy John surgeries, he has also missed time with inflammation in his shoulder, forearm, and hip, alongside a strained rotator cuff. He’s been through it all and is still one of the game’s most reliable closers. Draft with caution.
José LeClerc – Texas Rangers
LeClerc has missed a ton of time over his career due to many injuries that are not easy from which to return. He’s suffered both a strained teres major muscle and the need for Tommy John Surgery in back-to-back years beginning in 2020. He has bounced back to throw a combined 104.2 innings over the past two seasons with only a minor ankle injury to speak of. While he’s a talented pitcher when healthy, relying on that health isn’t something that should be counted on. Draft with caution.
Jordan Romano – Toronto Blue Jays
Romano has seen his fair share of injuries despite being one of the league’s best pitchers. He’s been placed on the Injured List four times over the last four seasons but has also thrown 200.2 innings in that span, which puts him 21st among pitchers in that time. His back is somewhat of a concern, as he missed parts of July and August. He could stay healthy for most if not all of 2024, but be prepared for time off. Draft with attention.
Kyle Finnegan – Washington Nationals
Finnegan has one trip to the Injured List over his career, and it was a minor stint for a hamstring strain. He has 226 games played over 226.2 innings pitched over his career. His last three seasons have been 60+ games played and 60+ innings pitched. He’s a workhorse. Draft with confidence.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.