Don’t believe the hype. That’s my mantra as we enter the 2024 fantasy baseball draft season. Baseball’s youth movement may be in full swing, but I’m staying skeptical for fantasy purposes and turning my efforts toward veteran sleepers.
Sure, hyped prospects with limited track records are fun and potentially league-winning if they hit. But for every home run, there’s a bunch of swing-and-miss.
So instead of spending your late-round picks on a variety of prospects that may or may not contribute, how about using them to load up on some proven veterans with upside – aka, some veteran sleepers? You can more accurately predict their floor while still maintaining the chance of surplus draft value. Even if they don’t “break out,” you can still count on them to round out your roster and provide solid bench production.
I get it, there’s a bit of anxiety that comes along with passing up the next great generational star, and you can afford to miss on a couple of late-round picks. But try it out this year. Let everyone else consume themselves with the latest and greatest prospects. Draft these veteran sleepers instead.
Late-Round Veteran Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Justin Turner, 1B/DH, Free Agent
A close friend and fellow fantasy nerd told me Turner was too obvious a pick for this “sleeper” list, and I think part of his objection, deep down, was not wanting the secret to get out. It seems obvious to anyone who has rostered Turner in the last few seasons that he is an incredibly valuable team asset that pays out above his draft cost. You have to go back to 2014 to find a year his OPS was below .800, and last year he popped 23 homers and a career-high 96 RBIs with the Red Sox while hitting .276 – the exact same batting average as his 2022 season.
Yet, his draft position refuses to rise, and rankings continue to push him well into the late rounds, with a 2023 ADP of 268 and a 2024 player ranking of 272, or the 23rd round in standard 12-team leagues. Turner’s days of batting .300 may be behind him, but he has averaged 141 games the last three seasons, and when he’s on the field, he contributes in 4 of 5 categories. Turner remains one of the most reliable bench bats in the entire draft as he enters his age 39 season, with eligibility at 1B and 2B in Fantrax leagues.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, New York Yankees
The fall of Stanton is hard to believe even for a veteran-lover like myself. Stanton was being drafted just outside the top 100 last year on Fantrax, but here in 2024, he is appearing, at best, in the mid-200s on 2024 player raters, and close to 300 in some cases. Now, Stanton is on the Yankees, so if he’s healthy in spring training, he will undoubtedly climb draft boards for his power potential. But if he slips into the late rounds, be ready to grab him.
Health and batting average risk will keep him off many managers’ radars, leaving them to dismiss the fact that he swatted 24 homers last year in just 371 at-bats. He should rack up RBIs hitting behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and if he hits .250, he could work his way into a regular fantasy role in deeper leagues. At worst, his streaky bat could play very well in a bench role in leagues with ample IL spots.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/DH, Baltimore Orioles
Only four years into his career, Mountcastle is not technically a veteran. Okay, you got me. But, he fits all the veteran-esque criteria that I love. Surrounded by buzzy players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, he’s a complete afterthought at this point, not cracking the top 200 on a single pre-season ranking. But he’s a quietly good hitter who has already shown us what his floor is in 2022 when he hit just .250 but still contributed 22 homers and 85 RBI.
Battling injuries last year, he managed to hit .270 and severely cut down on his strikeouts, albeit with a reduction in power (18 homers). His value going forward is probably somewhere in the middle, which bodes well when you consider you can get him in the late rounds and he’s hitting in Baltimore’s stacked lineup. Would anyone be surprised if he hit 30 homers again and pushed close to 90 RBIs? Matt Heckman provides more reasons to target Mountcastle late in drafts in this Second-Half Surgers piece.
Nick Pivetta, SP, Boston Red Sox
Pivetta’s lack of consistency, a career ERA of 4.86, and a career 1.35 WHIP keep most bidders at bay, pushing his draft availability well into the late rounds. Excellent. Every staff needs a pitcher like Pivetta, who can provide guaranteed innings (average of 160IP last three seasons) and sneaky category upside for those who, presumably, already have big aces at the top of their rotation.
Last year, he struck out 183 batters in 142.2 innings, and he has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout his career. His 2023 ERA of 4.04 was the lowest of his career, and he split time as a starter and a bulk-reliever role, which means most people probably won’t be in on Pivetta. Even better for you. That cloud of uncertainty could push his draft value down even further, making him an absolute steal for rotation depth/matchup starts that you grab as one of your final picks.
Kenta Maeda, SP, Detroit Tigers
His recent injury history and move to Detroit will have many hitting the snooze on Maeda, which excites me knowing I can probably get him in the 20th round or later. The move to Detroit is a good thing in my book; Low pressure, a pitcher-friendly park, and it keeps his schedule full of AL Central opponents. He’s not an innings eater, but he does post more than a strikeout per inning, with a career era of 3.92 and 1.18 WHIP, both well better than league average. He’s an excellent depth piece at worst with the chance to provide a lot of surplus value if he gets on a roll.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Houston Astros
Once a worthy keeper who posted 30/100 in 5 of his first 8 seasons (as recently as 2021), Abreu has fallen off the past two campaigns. Specifically last year, when he hit just .237 and had an OPS of .680. But wait, I thought the move to Houston was supposed to boost his value? Is he in a free-fall decline as he approaches his age-37 season? Maybe. Maybe not. He did bang 90 RBIs last season despite the lack of thunder, and you can probably get him in the 20th round or later in 2024. Rather than taking a flier on a prospect to break out, I’m going to bet on a bounce-back of sorts from Abreu in the late rounds. Barring injury, his floor is a bench bat that will consistently plate RBIs.
Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta Braves
Morton was a top-150 draft pick last year, with an ADP of about 140. But, something about pitchers turning 40 must not sit well with most, because he’s fallen out of the top 200 this year. And why not believe that Morton can keep it up? Indeed, he is the definition of a late-bloomer, spending 7 seasons of fantasy irrelevance with the Pirates before unlocking his arsenal in 2017 with the Astros. Since then, he has struck out more than a batter per inning in seven straight seasons across three franchises, with a sub-4.00 ERA in 5 of 7 seasons. True, his innings have been in decline, but he’s made 30 starts in 5 of the last 6 seasons (2020 being the only season he hasn’t). You could do much worse than Morton as rotation depth and a way to boost your strikeout totals in the late rounds.