Earlier this off-season I took a crack at a way too-early 2024 first-round mock draft. This article was published prior to the end of the 2023 Postseason and you can check that out here. Now that we have progressed through the first two months of the off-season, I am going to revisit and revise this article. In addition to having more information, I have also worked up projections to go with each player. Keep reading to see how I project each player will perform in 2024 and how I would draft at each slot in the first round.
2024 First Round Mock Draft Version 2
1.01: Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL
My 2024 Projections: .326/.407/.591/39 HR/55 SB
There is no change to the 1.01. This feels like the most consensus pick in both fantasy baseball and football over the past several seasons. There is really no reason why fantasy managers should consider anybody else other than Acuna. He led the league in stolen bases by 19 last season. Not only was he the only player to go 40/70, but he was the only player ever to go 30/50. The argument can be made that you could take away 20 stolen bases and 10 home runs and Acuna would still finish as the number one player in fantasy baseball.
Speaking of regression, the argument can actually be made that Acuna was…. unlucky last season. Yes, you read that right. I did some research last month looking at what percentage of barreled and pulled-barreled balls wound up as a home run. You can check that out here. Despite hitting 41 home runs, Acuna found himself in the unlucky section of that list. Only 56% of his pulled barrels left the park and more notably only 43% of his barrels went for a home run. The data seems to suggest that even though Acuna saw his HR/FB% spike to 24% last season, he could see that number rise even higher next year. There is nobody like Acuna in all of baseball making him the clear 1.01.
1.02: Bobby Witt Jr.- KCR
My 2024 Projection: .282/.331/.496/29 HR/50 SB
The first switch in this update is sliding Witt up two slots to the second pick. Although the Royals do not have the same perception as a team like Seattle, they are quietly having a nice off-season. Honestly, if you remove Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. from the respective lineups, Kansas City actually has a better lineup than Seattle. Kansas City might not be a favorable park to hit home runs, but it actually ranks as the fourth most favorable park for right-handed hitters to play compared to Seattle ranking 30th.
Beyond park factors, Witt is the safer profile. Not only is he likely to steal more bases, but he also does not have the same kind of plate discipline concerns as Rodriguez. He lowered his whiff percentage to 22.8% last season and reduced his chase rate by over four percent. He showed signs of developing in every area of his game last season and should be the second pick in fantasy drafts. Last season, he fell one stolen base shy of a 30/50 season. In my projection for 2024, he falls one home run shy. Regardless, he is an elite fantasy asset who should be taken at the 1.02.
1.03: Corbin Carroll- ARI
My 2024 Projection: .279/.360/.497/26 HR/50 SB
On accident, Carroll was omitted from the first edition of this article. 100% my fault, but this has been fixed for this edition and Carroll comes in at the 1.03. Carroll and the Diamondbacks received more exposure from their run to the World Series which is part of the reason Carroll is going so high in fantasy drafts. The other reason is that he is really good at baseball. Carroll put up a 133 wRC+ in his rookie season. He hit 25 home runs and stole 54 bases. Not only were his counting stats excellent, but his underlying metrics supported his strong season. He whiffs and chases less than the league average and makes hard contact more often than most hitters.
His fantasy value primarily stems from his elite speed. He projects to steal 50+ bases again in 2024. Just taking his 2023 stats and translating it to 2024 makes a good enough case to take Carroll at the 1.03. Once you factor in the likelihood of development after his rookie season, he becomes the obvious choice.
1.04: Julio Rodriguez- SEA
My 2024 Projection: .283/.345/.514/33 HR/29 SB
With Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll moving up in the mock, Rodriguez slides down two spots. This is nothing against Rodriguez who is already one of the game’s top outfielders. Rodriguez is still just 23 years old making it possible we have yet to see the best from him. His “sophomore slump” season still saw him hit 32 home runs and finish with a 126 wRC+. Part of the reason Rodriguez ranks behind Carroll and Witt is that he lacks the same innate base-stealing abilities as both of those players.
The other reason is his concerning plate discipline metrics. Rodriguez is a talented hitter, but anytime you are drafting a player inside of the top five, you want to make sure you do not miss. Last season, Rodriguez posted a whiff rate of 28.2% and a chase rate of 37.4%. Only 12 batters posted a whiff rate north of 27% and a chase rate above 35%. Their average wOBA was .321. Rodriguez posted a .347 wOBA last season. You are unlikely to win your fantasy league in the first round, but it is very easy to lose it. Rodriguez has the upside to finish as the top player in all of fantasy. He also comes with more red flags than some other hitters which is why he slides to fourth overall here.
1.05: Aaron Judge- NYY
My Projection: .289/.407/.599/47 HR/8 SB
Another big move and the first player that is clearly not a five-category option. Although Judge is not going to steal a lot of bases, he is going to provide elite four-category production for your fantasy teams. The addition of Juan Soto to the lineup only increases Judge’s fantasy value and will help create a more balanced lineup around him. Coming off his historic 62-home-run campaign in 2022, some fantasy players were drafting Judge as high as 1.01 last season. His injury along with the negative connotation surrounding the 2023 Yankees makes Judge one of the biggest draft day steals.
At this point in the draft, there are concerns surrounding every player on the board. Although Judge has battled durability issues, he is the best home run hitter in baseball. He has the highest home run projection of any player I have scouted making him a worthy selection at the 1.05. Plus, with the new rules, fantasy managers should have an easier time adding stolen bases at later points in the draft.
1.06: Fernando Tatis Jr.- SDP
My 2024 Projection: .272/.341/.496/31 HR/33 SB
In the first edition of this article, Tatis Jr. came in third overall. Now, the Padres have traded away Juan Soto and there is no sign that they are done shedding salary yet. So, how does this impact Tatis? Obviously, the loss of Soto weakens the lineup around him. Secondly, Tatis is an energy player. He provides his team with a lot of energy but also feeds off of the energy around him. We have seen this with him and Machado in the past. If the vibes in San Diego stay low throughout the 2024 season, Tatis’ mental toughness could be impacted.
Now, that is just some of the reasoning behind moving him down from the 1.03 to the 1.06. Tatis is still an electric and exciting player. He has five-category upside and I project he will put together a 30/30 season. Now a full season and off-season removed from shoulder surgery, Tatis should be even healthier in 2024. This should help his power rebound and return him to elite fantasy status. The argument can be made that being able to draft him at 1.06 is even too low based on his upside.
1.07: Spencer Strider- ATL
Steamer 2024 Projection: 185 IP/3.18 ERA/34.2 K%/8.2 BB%
Apologies for not getting to my 2024 pitching projections yet, but Steamer’s projection speaks to how impressive Strider is. Strider took a step back in 2023 after his incredible rookie season, but he was still the best pitcher in fantasy baseball according to FanGraphs auction calculator. In fact, it was not even close. Strider graded out at $55.4 last season. The second-best pitcher was Kevin Gausman who was over $16 less than Strider at $38.6. Strider’s ability to rack up wins and strikeouts is rare and makes him the most valuable pitcher in fantasy.
There is plenty of reason to believe that Strider will be even better in 2024. Strider’s 3.86 ERA last season came with a 2.85 FIP. He increased his changeup usage from 4.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2023. As if Strider needed anything more than his slider and fastball, his changeup generated a whiff rate of 44.4% and a .122 batting average against. There remains a strong possibility that Strider is getting even better. After the first six hitters, there is plenty of debate as to how the next tier should unfold. Taking Strider at the 1.07 makes perfect sense.
1.08: Jose Ramirez- CLE
My 2024 Projection: .301/.379/.532/30 HR/22 SB
Now that the first pitcher is off the board, we shift our attention to the next tier of hitters. Jose Ramirez was excluded from the first edition of this article, but after looking again he needs to be prioritized. Ramirez is as consistent as they come. He has hit at least 20 home runs and stolen at least 20 bases in five consecutive seasons (excluding 2020). Since 2018, Ramirez ranks 10th in runs scored, fourth in RBIs, 11th in home runs, and fifth in stolen bases. He will be 31 for most of the 2024 season and there has not been any sign of a decline in his metrics. He makes hard consistently hard contact with elite K:BB ratios.
After the first few guys, third base thins out fast. Ramirez offers a stable veteran presence that will provide you with strong five-category production. He is not going to lead the league in any one category, but he is going to provide much-needed balance to fantasy teams. If you are looking for upside, Ramirez posted an xBA of .299 in 2023 which could be a sign of positive regression to his batting average coming in 2024. Ramirez is not the flashiest pick, but at 1.08, he will be one that fantasy managers do not regret.
1.09: Mookie Betts- LAD
My 2024 Projection: .295/.387/.541/30 HR/10 SB
The Mookie Betts hype is back in full effect after many were quick to write him off prior to last season. The signing of Shohei Ohtani only makes Betts’ projection that much more exciting. At age 30, Betts hit a career-high 39 home runs and posted the second-highest wRC+ of his career. The one area of his game that continues to decline is his speed. Although he stole 14 bases last season, Betts’ sprint speed now sits in the 47th percentile in all of baseball. Fantasy managers should proceed with caution when projecting his stolen base totals for 2024.
Even with declining speed, Betts still profiles as an elite four-category contributor. His fantasy value grows even greater with him playing second base full-time. Second base is a barren wasteland for fantasy production (outside of Marcus Semien and maybe Ozzie Albies). Being able to plug Betts’ production into that lineup spot instantly gives your team an edge. This is why he is still a first-round pick in his age-31 season.
1.10: Trea Turner- PHI
My 2024 Projection: .280/.331/.465/24 HR/33 SB
Last edition, Turner came in a tad higher and I have tried to evaluate and remove any Phillies’ bias. By now, everybody knows that Turner’s season was a tale of two halves. In the first half, Turner looked like a shell of himself. From August 4 forward, Turner slashed .337/.389/.668. Turner’s ability to hit 16 home runs in a 211 plate appearance sample instantly carries him back into the first round for 2024. Add in the fact that he has not been caught stealing since September 5, 2022, and the case for Turner is even more concrete.
The reason for the fall in this edition is that the first half cannot be ignored. Even when Turner was going well in the second half, there were still red flags in his plate discipline and contact metrics. His power numbers were carried by an unsustainable 25.4 HR/FB% and a high BABIP. Turner proved during the second half that he has far too much talent to be a below-average player. However, those who drafted him last year likely struggled to make the playoffs thanks primarily to his production. There is at least a chance that could happen again. Turner’s speed, power, and the lineup around him make him worthy of a first-round pick, but 10th feels better than sixth.
1.11: Freddie Freeman- LAD
My 2024 Projection: .323/.404/.530/.25 HR/11 SB
Freeman is another player that was not included in the previous version of this article. Freeman turned 34 years old in September and it seems impossible to keep expecting elite offensive production from him. Yet, for another season, Freeman showed no signs of decline. His barrel rate rebounded back into the double-digits and his sweet spot percentage was the highest it has been since 2020. Freeman’s elite baseball instincts even help on the bases where he very quietly stole 23 bases last season. Fantasy managers should not necessarily expect 20 steals again next season, but any steals from a first baseman are valuable. Coming off the second-highest wRC+ of his career, Freeman deserves more attention from the fantasy community.
If we want to talk about Ohtani helping Betts’ value, then we also need to recognize the same for Freeman’s. Freeman already scored 131 runs and hit in 102 last season, but could see those numbers grow even higher. Despite his age, he is an elite four-category contributor and one of the safest players that fantasy managers can draft.
1.12: Juan Soto- NYY
My 2024 Projection: .283/.424/.536/34 HR/10 SB
Yes, I am aware that landing in New York does not guarantee Soto is going to properly utilize the Short Porch in right field. However, can you just imagine if he does? Soto tapping into even more of his pull side pop to launch balls just over that fence could result in 50 home runs. While this is not the expectation, this is the kind of upside fantasy managers should consider when closing out the first round. Soto will be 25 for the entirety of the 2024 season and now gets to hit (likely) right in front of Aaron Judge. Talk about run-scoring opportunities.
Even if Soto does not suddenly learn to pull more fly balls, he is going to be a reliable fantasy asset. He has incredible contact skills, managed to steal 12 bases last year, and has enough power to hit home runs 30-35 home runs out to any part of the ballpark. After 2022, the consensus around Soto is that he does not hit for enough average. Well, he hit .275 last year and is a career .284 hitter. Fantasy managers should remember he is a generational type player and select him in the first round.