Many fantasy baseball leagues, especially points leagues, factor Wins and/or Losses into the scoring. Win/Loss leagues have their benefits. Those leagues allow for more pitchers to factor into the results, including relievers who could pick up wins and losses in addition to saves, holds, and blown saves. But using Quality Starts as a marker instead of wins and losses, or in addition to them, adds more value to starting pitchers and separates them more from their relief counterparts.
With wins and losses, a pitcher could pitch well but still pick up a loss, simply because his offense did not support him enough. But with quality starts, as long as a pitcher goes at least 6 innings and allows three or fewer earned runs, he can provide positive value to a fantasy team.
In quality starts leagues, fantasy managers need to find pitchers who consistently go deep into games, also making streaming pitchers more important.
Because of actual MLB managers and front offices putting pitchers on innings limits, and pitchers throwing harder and harder, the amount of quality starts has decreased significantly the last 7 years. Here are the league average fastball velocities since 2012:
- 2023: 94.1 MPH
- 2022: 93.9 MPH
- 2021: 93.8 MPH
- 2020: 93.5 MPH
- 2019: 93.5 MPH
- 2018: 93.2 MPH
- 2017: 93.5 MPH
- 2016: 93.4 MPH
- 2015: 93.3 MPH
- 2014: 93.1 MPH
- 2013: 92.9 MPH
- 2012: 92.7 MPH
This has led to fatigue, injuries, and innings limits for pitchers, which affects the number of quality starts. This skyrockets the value of consistently healthy starting pitchers who go deep into games, and fantasy managers have to consider that when drafting in QS leagues.
Not counting 2020, the amount of Quality Starts has trended down every year since 2014. The only outlier is 2021, because of pitchers needing to build back up after pitching so little in 2020. I owe a big thank you to my podcast co-host Matt Kirk for mining this data:
- 2023 – 1673
- 2022 – 1776
- 2021 – 1584
- 2019 – 1794
- 2018 – 1996
- 2017 – 2121
- 2016 – 2262
- 2015 – 2432
- 2014 – 2623
- 2013 – 2556
- 2012 – 2485
Let’s dig a little deeper into some of these trends in order to identify the pitchers you should be targeting for Quality Starts Leagues.
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Overall Quality Starts Trends
In 2022, 12 pitchers finished with 20 or more quality starts. They were Framber Valdez, Alek Manoah, Yu Darvish, Shane Bieber, Martin Perez, Miles Mikolas, Justin Verlander, Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Joe Musgrove.
In 2023, 11 pitchers met that mark. Cole and Valdez were the only ones to repeat from 2022. The others to achieve at least 20 QS last season were Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Pablo Lopez, George Kirby, Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, and Jordan Montgomery.
Aside from Cole and Valdez, here are pitchers with at least 15 QS in each of 2022 and 2023:
- Logan Webb
- Chris Bassitt
- Kevin Gausman
- Zac Gallen
- Corbin Burnes
- Luis Castillo
- Logan Gilbert
- Merrill Kelly
- Kyle Gibson
- Aaron Nola
- Jose Berrios
Of those 11 pitchers, plus Cole and Valdez, nine fall in the top 40 of Nick Pollack’s Top 400 Starting Pitchers. But it also shows that pitchers who rank lower in W/L formats could hold more value in QS formats. Merrill Kelly, Kyle Gibson, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios land outside of Nick’s top 40, so they could present huge value to fantasy managers playing in quality starts leagues.
It is also important to identify which pitchers are trending in the right direction in terms of quality starts. While some pitchers may have seen their innings decrease over the last two years, others have increased their IP and thus have more opportunities for QS.
Pitchers Whose QS Are Trending Up
In 2022, 132 pitchers recorded at least five quality starts. In 2024, that total dropped to 123. Of the 123 pitchers with at least 5 quality starts last season, 63 recorded more quality starts last season than in 2022 (only counting pitchers with at least 1 QS in 2022).
Below are pitchers who had at least one, but fewer than five quality starts in 2022, with their 2023 QS total in parentheses. These are pitchers who are trending upward due to increasing innings, and who could continue to trend upwards this season. Some of the following pitchers are injured or have retired this season, and some may have changed roles this season, something fantasy managers should note.
- Zach Eflin (17)
- Bryce Elder, Freddy Peralta (16)
- Brayan Bello (15)
- Johan Oviedo (14)
- Bailey Ober (12)
- Hunter Brown, Kyle Hendricks (11)
- Wade Miley, JP Sears, Yusei Kikuchi (9)
- Jack Flaherty, MacKenzie Gore, Tyler Wells (8)
- Christopher Sanchez, Andrew Heaney, Ryne Nelson (7)
- Tylor Megill, Tommy Henry, Paul Blackburn (6)
- Trevor Williams (5)
Some pitchers in this group that could repeat or improve their QS totals include Eflin and Peralta, who were limited in 2022. Their PLV data shows quality pitchers with a chance to improve even more.
Eflin’s cutter and Sweeper are quality pitches, and he has an above-average curveball as well. While Peralta has three above-average offerings, bordering on quality pitches.
Brown and Ober are young stars that could see an improvement to their quality start totals in 2023 in part due to adding innings, and in part due to the quality of their pitches.
Here are all the other pitchers with at least 4 QS in 2023, who saw an increase in their QS total between 2022 and 2023. These include pitchers who had more than five QS, or zero QS in 2022. Their 2023 QS totals are in parentheses:
- Logan Webb, Gerrit Cole (24)
- Zack Wheeler, Chris Bassitt (21)
- Blake Snell, George Kirby, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Montgomery, Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen (20)
- Justin Steele (19)
- Kyle Bradish, Jesus Luzardo, Mitch Keller, Spencer Strider, Luis Castillo (18)
- Seth Lugo, Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson (17)
- Kodai Senga (16)
- Dean Kremer, Graham Ashcraft, Marcus Stroman (15)
- Patrick Corbin, Lucas Giolito, Joe Ryan (14)
- JP France, Lance Lynn (13)
- Austin Gomber, Jon Gray, Charlie Morton, Michael Wacha, Dane Dunning (12)
- Tanner Bibee, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen, Josiah Gray, Alex Cobb (11)
- Braxton Garrett, Mike Clevinger (10)
- Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Andrew Abbott, Bryce Miller, Reid Detmers (9)
- Griffin Canning, Anthony DeSclafani, James Paxton, Jake Irvin (8)
- Grayson Rodriguez, Logan Allen, Cole Ragans, Brandon Williamson, Rich Hill (7)
- Kenta Maeda, Chris Sale, Eury Perez, Reese Olson (6)
- Julio Teheran, Louie Varland, Clarke Schmidt, Tanner Houck (5)
- Chase Anderson, Vince Velasquez, Bryan Woo, Gavin Williams, Zack Littell, Collin Rea (4)
There are some clear pitchers to target here, even if they do not reach their 2023 QS total. Cole, Wheeler, Gausman, Webb, Bassitt, and Castillo all rank among the top 10 in total QS since 2021. Interestingly, so does Gibson, who makes for an excellent sleeper pick in QS leagues.
George Kirby should be on everyone’s radar already. Many consider him a top-10 SP for this season. His value should be just as high in QS leagues. He tossed 190 IP last season and could hit 200 IP this year. Plus, he has absolutely filthy stuff:
His ability to get batters out with multiple pitches allows him to go deep into games. He limits walks and home runs, and should be able to at least match his 2023 QS total.
Similar to Kirby, a few other pitchers should be able to maintain or increase innings, while also using top-notch stuff to get batters out and go deep into games.
Lopez, Gallen, and Sonny Gray are veterans who should be targets:
Young pitchers like Bobby Miller and Grayson Rodriguez could also add QS this season and bring fantasy managers a ton of value. Just look at their stuff:
Both pitchers have above-league-average PLV scores on four of their pitches, with Miller’s slider grading as a Quality Pitch. Each has a chance to be among the best pitchers in the league this year, especially in leagues that value quality starts.
Other pitchers saw a decrease in Quality Starts from 2022 to 2023, but are still excellent options to maintain high QS totals this season. Framber Valdez finished with 20 QS last season, down from 26 in 2022. Still, he ranks third in total quality starts since 2021.
Also high on that list is Corbin Burnes, who lost two QS from ’22 to ’23. Burnes has finished with at least 18 QS in each of the last three seasons.
While Jose Berrios has his flaws, he brings great value in QS leagues. He has at least 15 QS in every season since 2019 (not counting 2020). And since 2017, he has the sixth most total Quality Starts.
Shane Bieber and Joe Musgrove dealt with issues last season that limited their innings. But in 2022, both were top-15 in Quality Starts. Entering the 2024 season healthy could see both of those pitchers return to their prior form and produce high QS totals again this season.
Other pitchers to target for QS leagues: Steele, Luzardo, Strider, France, Eovaldi, Garrett, Glasnow, Jake Irvin, Williamson, Varland, Bibee
Pitchers to Avoid in QS Leagues
Several pitchers saw their quality start total drop from 2022 to 2023. Of all pitchers who had quality starts registered in both seasons, Alek Manoah had the largest drop-off, going from 25 QS to four. While Manoah’s total plummeted due to poor performance, many others had significant losses in quality starts due to injury.
All of the following pitchers had fewer quality starts in 2023 than in the prior season due to spending time on the IL:
- Max Fried
- Michael Kopech
- Brad Keller
- Kyle Freeland
- Max Scherzer
- Luis Severino
- Matt Manning
- Sandy Alcantara
- Hunter Greene
- Yu Darvish
- Johnny Cueto
- Tony Gonsolin
- Nestor Cortes
- Carlos Rodon
- Joe Musgrove
- Shane McClanahan
- Zach Davies
- Shane Bieber
- Cal Quantrill
- Clayton Kershaw
- Noah Syndergaard
- Eric Lauer
- Julio Urias
- Drew Rasmussen
- Nick Lodolo
- Jacob deGrom
Some of these pitchers, as well as others who did not lose time due to injury last season, carry ongoing injury risk. DeGrom has thrown a total of 186 IP since 2021, and likely will not see the field until at least the very end of this season. Others like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander are entering the twilight of their careers. They are all over 35, have dealt with multiple injuries over the last two years, and may find it difficult to hold up over a full season.
While Luis Severino is only 30, injuries have torpedoed his career since 2019. He has totaled 209 IP since then. Carlos Rodon faced setbacks in 2021 and 2023. Though he may have moved past his hamstring and arm issues from last season, he could find himself on an innings limit after tossing only 64 innings last season. That could prevent him from going deep into games and picking up quality starts. Matt Manning has yet to start more than 18 games in a season since 2021. In two seasons, Hunter Greene has yet to surpass 125 IP.
Some pitchers did really well last season, but are at risk of regression due to outperforming their background data. Wade Miley ended last season with a 3.14 ERA and nine quality starts, up from two in 2022. However, he had the worst K-BB% among all starting pitchers with at least 100 IP last season and the largest gap between his ERA and both xFIP and SIERA according to the same parameters. Despite possessing solid PLV data, his low K totals and high BB totals present a significant risk for him to be pulled early from games.
Similar to Miley, J.P. France possesses good stuff according to PLV:
His cutter is a quality pitch, with his sweeper, fastball, and slider all well above league average. That translated to 13 quality starts in 2023. Despite that, France, like Miley, was among the 20 worst K-BB rates following the same parameters. France also has the 11th largest gap between his ERA and xFIP, and the 10th largest gap between his ERA and SIERA. This suggests he may have outplayed his metrics last season and is at risk of allowing baserunners and run scorers, which could see him make some early exits this season.
Josiah Gray is another pitcher to avoid in QS leagues despite a three-year upward trend in quality start totals. He finished with 11 last season, nine in 2022, and five in 2021. Gray was among the 20 worst K-BB rates last season following the same parameters as France and Miley. Additionally, he had the eighth-largest difference between his 3.90 ERA and his xFIP and SIERA, which were both over 5.00. And while Miley’s stuff could help him overcome some issues, Gray does not have that benefit.
Gray has one pitch, his sweeper, that graded as a Quality Pitch. His changeup grades as a Bad Pitch. And his sinker and fastball grades are barely above the minimum for league average. The high walk and low strikeout rates, coupled with a propensity and potential to allow runs with lackluster stuff, make Gray a pitcher to avoid in QS leagues.
Other pitchers with lackluster PLV data from last season that were among the worst K-BB rates last season include Martin Perez, Michael Kopech, Tylor Megill, Tyler Anderson, Bryce Elder, and Ken Waldichuk.
Many pitchers may experience role changes this season that could see their quality start totals plummet. Some may be moved to the bullpen, or in swing roles. Some may end up cut or in the minors. Situations to keep an eye on include:
- ATL – AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Reynaldo Lopez
- BAL – Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin
- BOS – Garrett Whitlock
- ChC – Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly
- CIN – Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Brandon Williamson
- COL – Dakota Hudson, Ryan Feltner
- LAA – Chase Silseth
- LAD – Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan
- MIN – Louie Varland
- NYM – Joey Lucchesi
- OAK – Alex Wood, Ross Stripling
- STL – Zack Thompson
- TEX – Jose Urena
Some pitchers also have poor trend data over the last two seasons (three seasons for some), meaning their quality starts have been declining due to factors other than injury.
Miles Mikolas registered 14 quality starts last season after recording 22 in the prior season. Nick Pivetta totaled five last season, after spending part of the season in the bullpen, and 12 in 2022. Chris Flexen also spent time in the bullpen due to poor performance and ended with two quality starts last season, after having nine in 2022 and 15 in 2021.
Dylan Cease underperformed last season. He had 12 quality starts after a season of 16 in 2022. Cease has never had more than 16 quality starts in a season. He threw the second most pitches in baseball last season despite finishing with 177 IP. His high walk total, low strand rate, and the 10th-highest total of earned runs were likely factors in his decrease in quality starts. Unless he can correct those issues, he presents a major risk in quality starts leagues.
Jameson Taillon has not had more than 12 quality starts in a season since 2018. His total dropped from 12 in 2022 to eight in 2023. Among starting pitchers with at least 150 IP, Taillon had the ninth-worst HR/9. He also had the second worst LOB%. Leaving runners on base and allowing a high home run rate is a combination that will get a pitcher pulled early, making Taillon a risky pitcher for quality starts leagues.
Patrick Sandoval should also be avoided in quality starts leagues. He dropped from 11 QS in 2022 to eight in 2023. Among starting pitchers with at least 100 IP last season, Sandoval had the eighth-worst K-BB% and the 18th-largest difference between his ERA and SIERA. Contributing to his low K-BB rate is the fourth worst BB/9 rate following the same parameters. He also possessed one of the bottom 10 LOBs.
Some pitchers never seem to tally very many quality starts. The following pitchers have pitched in each of the last three seasons, but have not had a season of 10 or more quality starts in that time:
- Matt Manning
- Zach Davies
- Zack Thompson
- Adrian Houser
- Drew Smyly
Several others to avoid in QS leagues: Anthony DeSclafani, Nestor Cortes, Zach Plesac, Jordan Lyles, Carlos Carrasco, Dakota Hudson, Jose Quintana, Ranger Suarez, Cristian Javier
Hopefully this guide to quality starts leagues helps you navigate your drafts this season.