Value is relative. When preparing for your 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts, one of the main objectives is all about finding that value. With each draft choice, the plan is to decide whether a player’s performance equals or exceeds their cost. In some situations, especially earlier in drafts, a bust becomes more readily apparent and noticeable. However, nothing should be taken lightly here. Over the next few paragraphs, we will take a look at some second base busts for 2024 Fantasy Baseball.
Second Base Busts for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
I feel like I’m hating on the Cincinnati Reds this season, and I don’t want to. However, I just can’t help it. The Reds have a plethora of exciting young players who all got a taste of the big leagues last year. Among that group, there is a clear buzz surrounding them, and in my mind, that is leading to them being overvalued in 2024.
Currently, Matt McLain is costing fantasy managers a fourth or fifth-round draft choice, and there are just too many uncertainties for me. Last year, McLain hit .290 in 89 games for the Reds with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases. McLain also scored 65 runs to go along with 50 RBI in what was impressive rookie season.
The problems though, begin with McLain’s 28.5% strikeout rate and .385 BABIP. It shouldn’t be surprising then to see the gap between his .290 batting average and, more reasonable, .255 xBA. By the same logic, there is an even larger difference between McLain’s .507 slugging percentage and .435 xSLG.
McLain has a long career ahead of him, but there might be some starts and stops to it this year along with some inconsistencies. Sure, McLain can have a 20/20 season, but the batting average could be rough and there could be some issues with playing time. Give me McLain a few hours later and my comfort level increases.
Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
I am a fan of Nico Hoerner. Entering last year I was a fan of the second baseman and his three-category production (batting average, stolen bases, runs), and in a vacuum, that has not changed. The problem though, is that the price is much different this season than it was a year ago.
It shouldn’t be completely surprising based on how stolen bases are handled, but we are also putting a lot of stock in that one category. Last year, Hoerner stole 43 bases and scored 98 runs while batting .283. There is a lot to like about the latter two categories, but if it wasn’t for the former, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
A large part of this is a philosophical discussion about when to take one-dimensional speed, and pick 60 is simply too early for me. In order for Hoerner to not be considered a bust, he needs to steal at least 40 bases yet again. If something goes wrong, even an injury that is out of his control, then it won’t be a good situation.
Zack Gelof, Oakland A’s
The home park is not good. The lineup around him is terrible, and that might be putting it nicely. In general, the situation for Zack Gelof is simply a mess.
With that being said, Gelof is very much a power/speed threat who stole 14 bases last year. The power was also on display as he went deep 14 times. That came in just 69 games with Oakland after his promotion, and the bar for 2024 is set pretty high. The problem though, is that Gelof also struck out 27.3% of the time. Struggles with strikeouts were not uncommon for Gelof in the minor leagues, and it will continue to be an issue for him.
Gelof did post an impressive 11.1% barrel rate last year. The problem though, it was over just 189 batted balls. The concern for me is the difference between Gelof’s .504 SLG and .443 xSLG. This is not to say that Gelof is going to crash, and it’s still very likely he goes 20/20, but everything will be lacking. It’s hard to see Gelof hit better than .240, and Oakland’s lineup will put serious limits on his runs and RBI.
Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
What good is a one-dimensional player when that player fails to deliver at his best category?
At this point, since we are talking about busts, I’m pretty sure it’s a rhetorical question. That’s not to say that Jeff McNeil’s .270 batting average last year was a disaster, but it wasn’t exactly an asset either. And when you don’t bring any power to the table, then it becomes a problem.
With 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and 55 RBI, McNeil fails to distinguish himself. At this point, it is clear that his 23 home runs from 2019 are a true outlier. We simply can’t expect that production to come back. With a 1.4% barrel rate and 27% hard-hit rate last year, McNeil simply doesn’t make good contact. Unless we are truly in deeper leagues, McNeil is best left as a waiver wire option.
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