Shortstop is one of the most fascinating positions to track for fantasy baseball. The biggest stars always seem to be shortstops with no shortage of young players coming up at the position each year. With the immense talent at the position, it is often one of the most difficult positions to draft. Waiting seems okay for a while until suddenly six shortstops go in a row and then you are left scraping the bottom of the barrel. This article identifies three shortstop sleepers that can help you find value later in drafts. These might not be the flashiest names, but they are sure to be beneficial for your fantasy teams.
2024 Shortstop Sleepers
Dansby Swanson- Chicago Cubs
Swanson currently has the highest ADP of the three shortstop sleepers on this list. Swanson is currently going as SS14 in drafts, teetering right on the edge of where the position starts to drop off. His draft price of 129 makes him a valuable target for fantasy managers. He deserves to be at least one tier higher than he is going and now I will explain why.
After joining Chicago prior to the 2023 season, Swanson’s stats took a step backward. His .244 batting average was the lowest it had been since 2018. On top of that, his home run total of 22 was his lowest mark since 2019. After seeing his stolen base total spike to 18 in 2022, that number was cut in half despite the new stolen base rules. Time out. This article is supposed to be explaining why Swanson is a sleeper, not falling off the proverbial cliff.
Well, when you look under the hood, Swanson’s 2023 season was not as bad as it seemed. Starting with his plate discipline, Swanson posted some of the best numbers of his career. He cut his chase rate down from 26.4% in 2022 to 23.6% in 2023. His whiff rate also dropped below 30% for the first time since 2019. The strides Swanson made to improve his approach at the plate showed through his walk and strikeout rates. This is an encouraging sign for Swanson moving forward.
From a quality of contact perspective, his numbers in 2023 were almost identical to those he posted in 2022. His barrel rate remained above the league average at 10.9% and he continued to post an excellent sweet spot percentage. In the four seasons prior to 2023, Swanson posted an average BABIP of .320. This number fell to .297 last year with the Cubs. The Stacast Park Factor for Wrigley Field’s total hits is 2 points lower than Truist Park in Atlanta. That difference should only result in a very small difference in Swanson’s batting average.
The same can be said about Swanson’s power. Truist Park rates slightly higher for right-handed batters than Wrigley Field, but not a significant amount. The biggest difference for Swanson last season was his poor luck on barreled balls. Only 40% of Swanson’s barrels left the yard last season. What makes this even more surprising is the fact that Swanson significantly increased his pull percentage on fly balls last year. After averaging a pull rate on 18.8% of his fly balls from 2020-2022, Swanson pulled 23.4% of his fly balls last year. The only thing working against Swanson’s power last year was a smaller percentage of fly balls. His launch angle decreased slightly leading to fewer fly balls. Encouragingly, his launch angle from August 6 forward was 14.9 degrees much closer to his averages from previous seasons.
Swanson has been one of the more reliable shortstops in baseball over the past few seasons. He is not going to blow you away in any one category but should be a reliable bat in the middle of a solid lineup next season. Fantasy managers should expect his average, power, and stolen base totals to bounce back in 2024. Swanson is one of my favorite targets and the first sleeper on this list.
Ezequiel Tovar- Colorado Rockies
The Rockies appear to have found their shortstop of the future with Tovar. The former top prospect made his Major League debut in 2022 before earning the everyday shortstop job last season. Tovar’s glove was his carrying card in his rookie season. He has quickly proven to be one of the game’s premier defensive shortstops despite being just 22 years old. His outs above average ranked in the 99th percentile last season which gives him plenty of leash to work with offensively.
Tovar’s glove combined with the lack of options in Colorado create a higher level of job security than most players with Tovar’s offensive numbers have. Tovar was 30% worse than league average offensively last season and was a major disappointment for fantasy baseball players. He finished the season with a .253/.287/.408 slash with just 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He struck out 27% of the time which is part of why he is only going as SS20 in drafts. Digger deeper into his profile, it becomes clear that Tovar could be one of the best sleeper picks for 2024.
While Tovar lacks the raw power of some other players, he has excellent bat control. Last season, he posted a sweet spot percentage of 36.4% leading to 37 doubles. He posted a barrel rate of 8.1%; a number that increased over the second half of the year. His 15 home runs were disappointing, but he was amongst the most unlucky batters in baseball when it came to his home runs per barrel. Tovar found himself in an article I wrote earlier this offseason looking at players with home run upside in 2024. You can check that out here. Long story short, fantasy baseball managers should expect his home run total to increase in 2024. Projecting 20 home runs is not unrealistic.
Tovar’s past prospect pedigree and potential power improvements are enough to make him an intriguing sleeper by themselves. The intrigue grows even greater once you shift your attention to his stolen base totals. Tovar posted strong stolen base rates throughout his Minor League career before stealing just 11 at the Major League level last season. His sprint speed ranked in the 70th percentile in all of baseball, but stolen bases are about more than just pure speed. Steals are more of an art form than many give credit and being able to steal at the Major League level takes an understanding. This was evident in the first half as Tovar was just 4/7 on the basepaths.
Tovar’s understanding of the game seemed to grow in the second half as he was not only more aggressive but also far more successful. He went 7/9 on stolen base attempts from July 24 to September 16. This increase in steal attempts also coincided with his move up in the Rockies’ lineup. Notably, Tovar is projected to bat second in Colorado’s lineup next season.
A potential 20/20 player who gets to play his home games at Coors Field should be peaking every fantasy manager’s interest. Tovar will not turn 23 until the beginning of August and still has plenty of time to develop into the player that got him ranked 45th overall on FanGraphs 2023 top 100 prospects list. His glove is going to keep his bat in the lineup through any slump he endures which is something not many young players can say. He is currently going just inside the top 200 at pick 195. If you missed the first sleeper in Dansby Swanson, fear not as Tovar will still be available for you to take.
Liover Peguero- Pittsburgh Pirates
This one is for the deep league drafters out there. Late in drafts, you are just looking for opportunity. The best place to find opportunity is on bad teams. Nobody wants to draft a deep-league sleeper from the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, Peguero is projected to be a full-time starter to begin the season for Pittsburgh. He falls in the sleeper edition, but he is projected to be the Pirates’ Opening Day second baseman. Peguero comes with some prospect pedigree ranking inside of the top 100 on numerous lists during the 2022 season. He made his Major League debut that season appearing in one game before appearing in 59 this past year. Currently going as SS40 in drafts, this is the sleeper pick fantasy managers should be eager to make.
Peguero’s 2023 stat line is nothing flashy. He performed well enough at Double-A before making a brief stop at Triple-A en route to the Major Leagues. Peguero hit 13 home runs in the Minor Leagues stealing 21 bases. He seemed to make significant improvements to his contact skills before regressing significantly at the Major League level. He struck out 31.5% of the time with the Pirates and finished the season with a 74 wRC+.
So, why is Peguero a great sleeper? His upside. Although those 59 games were mostly disappointing, Peguero still managed to hit 7 home runs with six stolen bases. Extrapolated over 600 plate appearances, Peguero would have been on pace for 20 home runs and 18 stolen bases. His sprint speed ranked in the 95th percentile in all of baseball and his season-long stolen base total was 27. This is the third straight season in which he has stolen 25+ bases.
Peguero’s tools extend past just his speed. Standing at 6’2”, Peguero packs plenty of pop and has posted above-average HR/FB numbers throughout his professional career. He taps into his pull-side well with the only thing holding him back being a high ground ball rate. If Peguero can increase his fly ball rate, he has 25 home run potential.
The big red flag when you pull up Peguero’s stats is the strikeout rate. Last season, Peguero struck out 31.5% of the time. The surprising part of that is his plate discipline and contact skills were not all that bad. He whiffed on 29.1% of pitches which is not great but is not horrible. Really, his only issue was against the slider which most young hitters struggle against. Taking a look at his strike zone judgment, this is actually an above-average skill as illustrated by PLV:
Peguero is likely to see his walk rate increase next year to be more in line with his Minor League numbers. If he can lower his strikeout rate to the 25% range, he could see a drastic improvement to his overall numbers.
At pick 599, you can draft a toolsy player projected to start every day. Due to being on the Pirates, he does not come with the shine that some other prospects have, but there is plenty to be excited about. Fantasy managers fall in love with power/speed players who have strikeout concerns. Peguero should be no different and is a great value pick late in your fantasy drafts. If you miss the run on shortstops, fear not. Pegeuero is the perfect sleeper pick who will be waiting for you at the back of drafts.
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