2024 Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Sleepers

It’s one of the most fun parts of draft season; digging through the player pool to find the hidden gems. Discovering off-the-radar players who can offer way more value than their asking price. We, of course, call these high-upside players sleepers. And finding them is fun because everyone loves a bargain, and because they can take our rosters to the next level. This article is specifically about starting pitcher sleepers.

I already wrote a series of articles about late-round pitchers to target in a standard league, points league, and deep league. I didn’t call them starting pitcher sleepers, but that’s pretty much what they are. Feel free to have a look. I’ll likely circle back to those names during Spring Training, but today I wanted to concentrate on the middle-round sleepers. These are all players I haven’t written about yet, but ones I’m super excited to draft just the same. They all, in my opinion, offer lots more value than their average draft position. And about that: just wanted to note that all ADPs here are based on NFBC’s last 30 days.

2024 Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Cole Ragans SP/RP Royals ADP 111

2023: 96 IP, 7-5 W-L,  113 K, 3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

After a year when there was little to differentiate upper and lower-middle-class pitchers, I’d really like to use the middle rounds of this year’s draft to find hurlers who have the extreme upside to stand out.

Cole Ragans sure demonstrated that ability in 2023. If you’re not completely impressed with his season numbers (3.47 ERA/1.16 WHIP/10.59 K/9), check out what he did once he was dealt to the Royals and became a full-time starter in July. In 12 starts covering 72.2 innings, the former first-round pick compiled a 2.64 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP, and managed to retain a wonderful 11.18 K/9 rate. This performance was backed up by a season-long 3.33 xERA, 3.19 FIP, and 3.71 xFIP.

He’s got some great tools, too. His 96.5 mile-per-hour average fastball ranks in the 89th percentile. He has an elite slider (40.6% whiff rate) and changeup (34.4% whiff rate). And his overall whiff and K rate (ranked 83rd and 85th percentile, respectively) suggest there’s plenty more coming.

Why is he being drafted in the 10th round? Aside from a small sample size of dominance, it comes down mainly to injury. The 26-year-old already has two Tommy John surgeries under his belt and to this point, he’s never thrown more than 134 innings in a season. His 124.2 innings last season makes it a plausible bet he could get to 170 or so, but the Royals will likely be careful. In a roto league, the potential counting stats and ratios are just too good to pass up. And in points leagues that require RP spots, you can use him to game the system. And in just about any league, this is the time in the draft for a little upside risk. If there’s such a thing as 10th-round starting pitcher sleepers, this is the one.

Tanner Bibee SP Guardians ADP 117

2023: 142 IP 10-4 W-L, 141 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

OK, I lied, there’s two 10th-round starting pitcher sleepers. Though he’s not getting the hype of some other prized sophomore hurlers, Tanner Bibee’s results last year were just as impressive. The 24-year-old had a better WHIP and walk rate than Grayson Rodriguez (ADP 71 ). He had a better K/9 rate than Bobby Miller (ADP 79). And he had a better BB/9 than Eury Perez (ADP 80). His 142 innings, 141 strikeouts, and a highly impressive 2.98 ERA eclipsed all three! And yet, the righty is going three rounds later.

I know what the next question is. What about the expected stats? Must be an under-the-hood kind of reason, right? Not really. Let’s do a chart. I never make charts.

2023 Results:

We don’t have to say much else about the chart. Just that Bibee is not the worst in any category. And the best at the one probably most helpful to be best at, ERA. Will that number take a step back this season? Probably a little. But based on his command and control in the minors (1.8 BB/9 over 132.2 innings in 2022), there’s just as good a chance that his WHIP comes a bit down too.

Bottom line: he had a great rookie season that got better as it went along (a 2.40 ERA from July 1st onward with more than a strikeout per inning), his 157 total innings make it plausible he gets close to 200, and with two secondary pitches that get whiffs (changeup 37.8% whiff rate and slider 31.7%), and a respectable fastball that averages 94.9 miles per hour (67% percentile), there’s no reason to believe it’s a fluke. Quite the opposite, it makes for some great draft value.

Michael King SP/RP Padres ADP 154

2023: 104.2 IP, 4-8 W-L, 127 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

The case for Michael King on this list is pretty simple. The Yankees converted their elite reliever to a starter at the end of last season. He was already doing well in the pen, but then absolutely dominated during an eight-start stretch. Over his last 38.1 innings, the 28-year-old compiled a 1.88 ERA with an eye-popping 11.27 K/9 rate.

The overall season numbers, though not quite as other-worldly, tell a similar story. His 2.75 ERA was backed up enough by a 3.48 xERA, a 3.13 FIP, and 3.37 xFIP. And the righty’s Statcast page looks plenty impressive. It shows mastery over limiting hard contact (88th percentile average exit velocity and 85th hard-hit rate) and missing bats (88th percentile K rate).

Furthermore, The King’s new home, Petco Park, grades out as the second-best pitcher-friendly field according to Park Factors. And the Padres GM, A.J. Preller, has already confirmed that the team intends for him to be a starter in 2024. So while no one is expecting a sub-2.00 ERA, there’s plenty to indicate he’ll at least be good if not great.

The ADP feels a bit low. He has a lot more upside than Jordan Montgomery (ADP 146) and Chris Bassitt (ADP 139). And none of the injury/age concern of Justin Verlander (ADP 131) or Sonny Gray (ADP 123). Granted, he doesn’t have any of their track records as a starter, but every bit of their potential. He could provide a near-3.00 ERA while possibly striking out 11 per nine over 150 or so innings. That would pretty much give you Gray’s 2023 season (2.79 ERA with 183 strikeouts), a season in which he over-performed peripherals and one not likely to be repeated (hence his own low ADP). It’s also worth noting that His Majesty is the only SP also with RP eligibility in this range (attention points leaguers!). Put it all together, there’s a lot of value here at a time in the draft where upside is… King!

Bailey Ober SP Twins ADP 163

2023: 144.1 IP, 8-6 W-L, 146 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

There’s been a ton of comparisons this offseason between Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Makes sense. Aside from being on the same team, they’re both the same age (28 during the season). They both started their careers in 2021 and have thrown a similar amount of innings (Ryan’s 335 vs. Ober’s 292). Their inning totals last year were almost identical (if you count minor leagues). Neither throw particularly hard (Ryan’s 92.3 average fastball velo ranks in the 23rd percentile, while Ober’s 91.3 MPH is 13th). They both have elite walk rates (Ryan’s 1.89 BB/9 vs. Ober’s 1.81). Both struggle with allowing home runs (Ryan had a 1.78 HR/9 vs. Ober’s 1.37). And even the results last year were very similar. Should I do another chart while I’m at it?

2023 Results:

I’m on chart fire! There’s two things that really stand out in this one. First, is the K/9 rate. Ryan’s is near-elite (his K rate of 29.3% was ranked in the 88th percentile), whereas Ober’s is just very good (25.3% K rate is 67th percentile). The second is ADP. Ryan is routinely being drafted at the end of the 8th round, while Ober is going in the middle of the 14th.

So with all the other variables being relatively similar, I ask you this: are two more strikeouts per nine innings worth 68 spots on the draft board? I’m going to say no. And I’ll also add: in 2022, Ober’s slider took a big step forward (albeit in just 56 MLB innings). It went from a 27% whiff rate to 37%. It became his put-away pitch (30.5% put-away rate). Last year, not so much (33%, but just 17.6% put-away). So can he reclaim some of that magic in 2024? There sure is a chance. That upside, plus the factors above, makes me think he should be much closer in ADP to his teammate. Which means there is some excellent value here. And another solid starting pitcher sleepers option.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.