Flipping the calendar to July is always bittersweet. It’s a harsh reminder that summer, and the year, are moving way too quickly, however, we are that much closer to the fall and, more importantly, football season. If you haven’t already, it’s time to get back into the fantasy football manager mindset. Don’t worry, there’s still plenty of time to prepare, but you’ll be logging in or showing up to your league’s draft before you know it.
For the next 10 weeks, every Monday, I will be completing a fantasy football mock draft on what I like to call “Mock Draft Monday.” This series is a favorite of mine and one of the articles I look forward to the most during fantasy football draft season. I encourage you to review these mock drafts and complete some of your own!
Each week, I will select a mock draft team selecting players from a different draft spot with an analysis as to why I picked each player where I did and when I did. As I break down the results of each mock draft, I guarantee my reasoning for every pick will help guide your own decision-making process when it comes time to select your teams for the upcoming fantasy football season. So, follow along all summer long!
Picking First Overall in the First Mock Draft
The following mock draft was completed, simulating my strategy and results for a 10-team, 1 quarterback, Points Per Reception league. The hypothetical roster consists of 3 wide receivers, 2 running backs, 1 tight end, and 1 RB/WR/TE Flex position. I drafted from the first overall pick in this mock draft and will make selections from different draft positions each week. For this mock draft, I will break down just the first 10 of the total 16 rounds as many Average Draft Positions, particularly for the later rounds, are bound to change once NFL training camps begin. As always, I spend my final two picks on a Defense/Special Teams and Kicker so they won’t be included as we focus on individual player analysis.
ROUND ONE
1.01- CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR)
1.02- Christian McCaffrey (SF RB)
1.03- Bijan Robinson (ATL RB)
1.04- Tyreek Hill (MIA WR)
1.05- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR)
1.06- Justin Jefferson (MIN WR)
1.07- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN WR)
1.08- Breece Hall (NYJ RB)
1.09- A.J. Brown (PHI WR)
1.10- Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR)
MY PICK: CeeDee Lamb
For the 2024 season, I’m taking Lamb above anyone else with the first overall pick. It’s July 1st and the first mock draft, but I don’t see myself wavering on this stance. Lamb is one of a handful of receivers capable of finishing at the top of his position with a case to be the best player in fantasy football at all positions.
Lamb’s 23.0 points per game in 2023 trails only Tyreek Hill (23.7), but Lamb played in every game finishing with the fourth-most points (367.7) amongst all players. Who could forget his 40.2 PPR points in Week 17, the fantasy football championship, either? Lamb will retain the same coach and quarterback, and his competition for targets on the Dallas Cowboys offense remains underwhelming.
When it comes to drafting first overall, you want a player that you won’t regret building your team around. Lamb fits that mold more than any other stud coming off of the board in the first round.
ROUND TWO
2.01 – Jonathan Taylor (IND RB)
2.02- Puka Nacua (LAR WR)
2.03- Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR)
2.04- Drake London (ATL WR)
2.05- Davante Adams (LV WR)
2.06- Saquon Barkely (PHI RB)
2.07- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET WR)
2.08- Chris Olave (NO WR)
2.09- Nico Collins (HOU WR)
2.10- Derrick Henry (BAL RB)
MY PICK: Derrick Henry
I’m not necessarily trying to leave the second round with a running back after selecting a wide receiver in the first round, but Derrick Henry’s upside in Baltimore is too good to pass up on. He is my 20th overall ranked player, so it’s easy to just take him 20th overall in this mock draft.
There is, of course, a ton of risk that comes with drafting Derrick Henry. He is 30 years old with 2,186 career rush attempts. Those numbers alone would be enough to fade any player without knowing their name, but Derrick Henry is simply different.
Specifically in Baltimore, Henry will be running behind a much better offensive line, compared to the 2023 Tennessee Titans’ line. There is already a bit of coach-speak out there referencing the possibility of Henry handling 300 or more carries. Last season, Gus Edwards logged 39 red zone rush attempts which ranks 10th amongst all players. He scored all 13 of his rushing touchdowns inside the red zone, 12 of which were inside the five-yard line. That’s not even accounting for the other rushing touchdowns and opportunities given to other Ravens running backs. Henry should take on a heavy majority of the workload which creates a massive ceiling worth chasing at the running back position in the second round.
ROUND THREE
3.01- Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR)
3.02- Travis Etienne (JAX RB)
3.03- De’Von Achane (MIA RB)
3.04- Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR)
3.05- Josh Allen (BUF QB)
3.06- Michael Pittman Jr. (IND WR)
3.07- Stefon Diggs (HOU WR)
3.08- Jalen Hurts (PHI QB)
3.09- Kyren Williams (LAR RB)
3.10- Deebo Samuel (SF WR)
MY PICK: Brandon Aiyuk
I’m drafting Brandon Aiyuk at the top of the third round of this mock draft with the expectation that he will suit up for the San Francisco 49ers. Obviously, it’s early, so where he plays the 2024 season could change. I prefer him in San Francisco over just about everywhere else, so if he does end up getting traded, I would reevaluate taking him in the third round.
Despite logging the 24th-most receptions (75) amongst wide receivers, Aiyuk has the seventh-most yards (1,342) for an extremely fantasy-friendly 17.9 yards per reception. Additionally, Aiyuk led all 49ers in targets, even through the playoffs, with a regular season target share of 23%. San Francisco’s offense is extremely efficient and, though with plenty of mouths to feed, Brandon Aiyuk makes sure he gets fed. He’s a perfect player with a WR2 price tag that can finish as a WR1. He was the WR13 on a points-per-game (16.2) basis last season.
ROUND FOUR
4.01- Isiah Pacheco (KC RB)
4.02- Sam LaPorta (DET TE)
4.03- Mike Evans (TB WR)
4.04- Travis Kelce (KC TE)
4.05- Alvin Kamara (NO RB)
4.06- Cooper Kupp (LAR WR)
4.07- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR)
4.08- Amari Cooper (CLE WR)
4.09- Patrick Mahomes (KC QB)
4.10- D.J. Moore (CHI WR)
MY PICK: D.J. Moore
I may be higher than most on the 2024 Chicago Bears. I’m extremely confident that Caleb Williams is “day one ready” and has the pieces in place to be one of the higher-scoring offenses in the league. I know Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze are entering the mix, but I don’t foresee a big enough drop in value for D.J. Moore that I’m able to draft him as the WR24 in this mock draft.
His 17.3 points per game in 2023 is a career-best, tying Mike Evans as the WR8 last season. Moore is one of just 10 wide receivers to average 90% of their team’s offensive snaps last season. While that may dip slightly, it’s hard to imagine a drastic increase in playing time considering Rome Odunze is a rookie, and likely third in snaps to start the season, and Keenan Allen is 32 years old. Moore has a legitimate chance to lead the 2024 Bears in snaps, targets, receptions, and yards, at the very least. Taking him as the WR3 for this mock draft team is a no-brainer.
ROUND FIVE
5.01- DK Metcalf (SEA WR)
5.02- Malik Nabers (NYG WR)
5.03- Tank Dell (HOU WR)
5.04- Josh Jacobs (GB RB)
5.05- Rachaad White (TB RB)
5.06- Aaron Jones (MIN RB)
5.07- Joe Mixon (HOU RB)
5.08- James Cook (BUF RB)
5.09- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB)
5.10- Mark Andrews (BAL TE)
MY PICK: DK Metcalf
I always lean toward starting a wide receiver in the flex spot in Points Per Reception leagues. The general rule of thumb is that one target is worth more than one carry with consideration to potential points per opportunity. Plugging DK Metcalf, the WR1 in Seattle, into the flex has league-winning upside.
Metcalf has five straight top-24 finishes in fantasy football, though nothing inside the top-20 since 2020. However, Metcalf has only missed one game in five seasons and has no less than 900 yards per season. He has three seasons of over 1,000 yards including each of the last two. The floor is extremely high with Metcalf and, with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, he has a top-12 ceiling in what could be a pass-heavy offense this season.
ROUND SIX
6.01- Calvin Ridley (TEN WR)
6.02- Christian Kirk (JAX WR)
6.03- George Pickens (PIT WR)
6.04- Kenneth Walker (SEA RB)
6.05- Tee Higgins (CIN WR)
6.06- Zay Flowers (BAL WR)
6.07- David Montgomery (DET RB)
6.08- Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB)
6.09- Keenan Allen (CHI WR)
6.10- Anthony Richardson (IND QB)
MY PICK: Anthony Richardson
My general strategy for the 2024 fantasy football season, in 1QB leagues, is to wait to draft a quarterback. The position feels much deeper than usual this year. That may be due to the injuries to some of the biggest stars last season making way for some of the younger players to show their potential. Ironically, Anthony Richardson flashed incredible upside but played in just four games before a season-ending shoulder injury.
While I do plan to wait to draft a quarterback, the sixth round of this mock draft feels like a steal for Richardson. I don’t anticipate him being available beyond the fourth or fifth round, but I’ll be prepared if he is. In just four games last season, Richardson rushed exactly 10 times in two of them. In the two games he did not leave early due to injury, Richardson averaged 25.75 fantasy points per game.
Anthony Richardson is worth the high draft capital with the high probability of averaging over 20.0 points per game during the 2024 season. The beauty of 1QB leagues is that if he does miss time for any reason, there will be options you can plug and play on the waiver wire any given week.
ROUND SEVEN
7.01- James Conner (ARI RB)
7.02- Raheem Mostert (MIA RB)
7.03- Trey McBride (ARI TE)
7.04- Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE)
7.05- Terry McLaurin (WAS WR)
7.06- C.J. Stroud (HOU QB)
7.07- D’Andre Swift (CHI RB)
7.08- Najee Harris (PIT RB)
7.09- Zamir White (LV RB)
7.10- Dak Prescott (DAL QB)
MY PICK: James Conner
By the seventh round, it’s time to start rounding out my roster. With a stud running back, high upside quarterback, and four wide receivers, it’s about time to solidify the RB2 position sooner than later. James Conner is the best player available at the position with the likelihood of commanding a heavy majority of touches of the Arizona Cardinals’ backfield on, what should be, a more successful offense in 2024.
Conner’s late 2023 season stretch is a sample size of what he is capable of. His 22.2 points per game from Weeks 13 through 17 ranks only second behind Christian McCaffrey’s 23.7 during that span. He can handle 15 or more carries per game and is a capable pass catcher. Unfortunately, he’s known to miss time due injury. Conner doesn’t have a complete season to his name and has missed 10 games over the last three seasons. Prioritizing rookie Trey Benson as a handcuff, or just loading up on late-round running backs with upside, is a must if Conner is a starter on your 2024 fantasy roster.
ROUND EIGHT
8.01- Chris Godwin (TB WR)
8.02- Jayden Reed (GB WR)
8.03- Zack Moss (CIN RB)
8.04- Kyler Murray (ARI QB)
8.05- DeAndre Hopkins (TEN WR)
8.06- Javonte Williams (DEN RB)
8.07- Joe Burrow (CIN QB)
8.08- Jordan Love (GB QB)
8.09- Rashee Rice (KC WR)
8.10- Tony Pollard (TEN RB)
MY PICK: Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard is one of my favorite picks of this mock draft. Would I love him more if he was still on the Dallas Cowboys? Of course! Their running back room is completely lackluster and he probably logs more touches there than with the Tennessee Titans. However, Pollard is a big-money free agent signee to a new regime in Tennessee and that has to count for something.
While last season was disappointing as a whole for Pollard, he did break his leg nine months before Week 1 and still managed to play in every game. I do think the Titans lean much more on the pass than in years past, but Pollard can mix right in having set career-highs in targets and receptions every year he’s been in the league. He caught 55 of 67 targets in 2023.
Drafting Pollard in the eighth round is extremely enticing for this mock draft team because it afford me the opportunity to see how his role develops for a few weeks while James Conner starts in this specific lineup. If Conner were to miss time, I feel confident that Pollard can handle enough touches to support RB2 numbers for fantasy football.
ROUND NINE
9.01- Hollywood Brown (KC WR)
9.02- Austin Ekeler (WAS RB)
9.03- Xavier Worthy (KC WR)
9.04- Jaylen Warren (PIT RB)
9.05- Diontae Johnson (CAR WR)
9.06- Tyler Lockett (SEA WR)
9.07- Jonathan Brooks (CAR RB)
9.08- Rome Odunze (CHI WR)
9.09- Devin Singletary (NYG RB)
9.10- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB)
My Pick: Hollywood Brown
One thing I’m keeping an eye on in mock drafts is the Average Draft Position of the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers. In this mock draft we see Rashee Rice come off of the board at pick 8.09 with me selecting Hollywood Brown two picks later at the top of the ninth round. Rookie Xavier Worthy comes off of the board two picks after that.
Obviously, we need to see if, at all, how many games Rashee Rice could miss due to a league suspension for his off-season vehicle racing and crash. If that happens, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy will see an uptick in value.
Patrick Mahomes has finished third in pass attempts in each of the last three seasons. He has the most yards after the catch amongst quarterbacks in every season since 2020. A career-high 61% of his passing yards were yards after the catch. Meanwhile, his 6.8 yards per target were a career-low. Adding Marquise Brown as a major downfield threat should get Mahomes back to completely deep passes and racking up major fantasy points.
ROUND 10
10.01- Jerome Ford (CLE RB)
10.02- Tyjae Spears (TEN RB)
10.03- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR)
10.04- Christian Watson (GB WR)
10.05- Mike Williams (NYJ WR)
10w.06- Jordan Addison (MIN WR)
10.07- Ladd McConkey (LAC WR)
10.08- Trey Benson (ARI RB)
10.09- Courtland Sutton (DEN WR)
10.10- Evan Engram (JAX TE)
MY PICK: Evan Engram
Similarly to quarterback, I’m willing to wait a bit for a tight end in 2024 fantasy football drafts. I have a confident top-eight to target and Evan Engram is one of them. His 12.9 points per game in 2023 earned him a TE5 finish and is just 1.2 points behind Sam LaPorta, who came off of the board in Round Four.
Engram hasn’t scored more than four touchdowns in a season since his rookie year in 2017. He doesn’t have a 1,000 yard season, either. However, Evan Engram is a key piece to the Jacksonville Jaguars passing game. His 143 targets last season led all Jaguars. Calvin Ridley, who’s now on the Titans, was close behind with 136 of his own. Engram has a really high floor for the 2024 fantasy football season.
STARTING LINEUP
QB – Anthony Richardson
RB – Derrick Henry, James Conner
WR – CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore
TE – Evan Engram
FLEX – DK Metcalf
Bench: Tony Pollard, Hollywood Brown, Brian Robinson Jr. (11.01), Jameson Williams (12.10), Romeo Doubs (13.01), Jaylen Wright (14.10)
Mock Draft 1.0 CONCLUSION
I’m cautiously optimistic about coming away with this good of a team at the end of August as I have here at the beginning of July. Generally, Anthony Richardson and Hollywood Brown will probably go higher, while Brandon Aiyuk could justifiably drop in value if he ends up on another team.
The biggest weakness of this initial mock draft roster is the running back position. If Derrick Henry and James Conner both stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine this mock draft team losing many games. However, if they do miss time, I still have some risk and a lack of firepower on the bench to keep the team afloat. Luckily, having a quarterback like Anthony Richardson, and his massive rushing upside, can fill any void left behind by an injured starting running back.
Overall, I love the idea of loading up with high-floor, high-ceiling wide receivers early and attempting to round out the roster with running backs later. It will be crucial to track ADP as this mock draft series continues. Drafting a quarterback and tight end at the right value will also be crucial to success. If Anthony Richardson, and others, are coming off of the board prior to the fifth round, I’m likely going to wait until later rounds for my starter.