The Fantasy Football Playoffs are here. Win and move closer to a championship…lose and watch from the bleachers. Now is more important than ever to pay close attention to the details and make the best decision possible that sets you up for success.
I invest a significant amount of time and effort into this series, and I take pride in identifying players likely to exceed expectations each week. This article is designed to help you optimize your Fantasy Football lineups and make informed decisions for daily fantasy sports (DFS), giving you a competitive edge.
Weekly I dig through and analyze NFL matchups focusing on factors such as Fantasy points allowed per game, yards allowed, and player performances to predict who will excel. I take full accountability for both my successful picks and any misses. Some misses from last week included Jayden Reed, Drake London, Alvin Kamara, Will Levis, and James Cook. Some of the hits from this article included:
- Sam Darnold – 34.6 Fantasy Points
- Tyreek Hill – 28.1 Fantasy Points
- Isaac Guerendo – 26.8 Fantasy Points
- Chase Brown – 24.3 Fantasy Points
- Kyren Williams – 23.7 Fantasy Points
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 19.6 Fantasy Points
- David Montgomery – 19.4 Fantasy Points
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. – 19.3 Fantasy Points
- Adam Thielen – 19.2 Fantasy Points
- Jerry Jeudy – 17.4 Fantasy Points
My intention as a content creator as always been to help YOU “Play 2 Win”. That is exactly what we will be doing here. Thanks for all of the support with this series this season. No slowing down now. We are off into Week 15
2024 Fantasy Football Playoffs Round 1 Winners
Rams vs. 49ers (Thursday Night Football)
When the Rams faced the 49ers in Week 3, Kyren Williams rushed 24 times for 89 yards, two rushing touchdowns, and caught two passes for 27 yards with an additional touchdown. 31.6 Fantasy Points that week is Kyren’s season-high. Across the last three games, Williams has scored four rushing touchdowns, with a total of 12 touchdowns on the ground this season, showing continued upside there. 104 rushing yards back just two games ago in Week 13 was a season-high. 18.3 and 23.7 Fantasy Points for Kyren in the last two games is a solid trend upward as well. The 49ers allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to running backs and with the recent positive trend in Fantasy paired with a great performance against San Fran already this season, it should be a solid Williams Week 15.
Brock Purdy found success back in Week 3 against the Rams throwing for 293 yards, three passing touchdowns, and 41 rushing yards which totaled 25.8 Fantasy Points. Through 12 games played Purdy is averaging 252.7 passing yards per game and ranks #1 for the position in yards per attempt which shows the combination of production and efficiency. Purdy has finished five weeks above 22 Fantasy Points this season and faces a Rams defense allowing the eighth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the ninth-most passing yards per game this season. Week 15 could be a repeat of Week 3 for Purdy.
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Jake Ferguson returned in Week 14 after missing two full games due to injury to earn six targets. Ferg caught just three of those but averaged 10.7 yards per catch to take them for 32 yards. Even though Luke Schoonmaker looked solid at times in Ferguson’s absence, Ferguson’s return still meant 77% of the snaps. The Cowboys offense has had its ups and downs all season, and through nine full games for Ferguson, he has finished as a top-10 Fantasy tight end in four of them. Ferguson faces a Panthers defense in Week 15 that allows the most Fantasy PPG to tight ends, and after his return to action last week playing the starter snaps we expect and earning solid targets I am feeling a bounce-back week for Fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard has had a helluva season, and the Panthers showed their appreciation for that this year via a four-year contract extension. Through 13 games played Hubbard’s 1,011 rushing yards rank sixth, his 35 receptions rank 15th, and his nine total touchdowns are top 10 for the position. Hubbard is averaging 15.4 Fantasy PPG and has scored over 20 Fantasy Points five times this season. Hubbard is coming off of a game where he rushed for 92 yards and a score on 26 attempts and now faces a Dallas defense allowing the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the third-most rushing yards per game this season. A good opportunity for Hubbard to stay hot.
Chiefs vs. Browns
DeAndre Hopkins has scored 13+ Fantasy Points for three straight weeks now. Two of those games (Week 12/14) were guided by touchdowns with under 40 receiving yards and the other (Week 13) was guided by a season-high 90 receiving yards. An encouraging sign across the last two weeks is nine targets in each of those games from Patrick Mahomes. DHop exploded back in Week 9 when he caught eight passes for 86 yards and two touchdowns for 28.6 points in his second game for Kansas City, showing some upside still left in the tank. DHop will face a Browns defense allowing the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season.
As I am writing this on Wednesday, David Njoku is considered day-to-day with a hamstring injury we will need to monitor. The hope for Fantasy managers is that Njoku is good to go, with this man being on absolute fire the last two weeks. Njoku caught nine of his 17 targets for 52 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13 for 26.2 Fantasy Points. Njoku followed that performance up in Week 14 with seven catches on 13 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown for 17.2 Fantasy Points. 30 targets across two games is insane volume. The Chiefs are a great tight end matchup this year, allowing the third-most Fantasy PPG to the position.
Dolphins vs. Texans
Regardless if people want to admit it or not – Tua Tagovailoa is in the “must start” category with his recent stretch of consistency in Fantasy Football. Across Weeks 11-14 Tua has scored over 23 Fantasy Points for four straight games as the QB10, QB3, QB7, and QB5 during this stretch. During this four-game span, Tua has thrown 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions and has averaged 325.25 passing yards. So much upside through the air. Tua will face a Texans defense in Week 15 that allows the 10th-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season, which is an opportunity to continue thriving for Fantasy Football.
Joe Mixon has been unbelievable in his first season for Houston, and that is evident by him averaging the second-most Fantasy PPG through 10 games at 21.2. Mixon has rushed for over 100 yards in seven of his 10 appearances and has totaled 12 touchdowns on the year, This is one of the most productive workhorses this season in the NFL, averaging 20.5 rushing attempts and 2.7 receptions per game. The Dolphins allow the 12th-most Fantasy PPG to running backs, and in a game featuring two quality offenses, you would expect the Texans to give plenty of work to their playmaking running back in Week 15.
Jets vs. Jaguars
Through 13 games played this season Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top-12 Fantasy quarterback just four times, but I am confident in Rodgers as a solid streamer in Week 15. The Jaguars allow the second-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and also the second-most passing yards per game, which has made them such a juicy matchup all season. The Rodgers – Garrett Wilson – Davante Adams trio is looking better and better as the season goes on, which boosts the point potential for Rodgers. Just last week Rodgers threw for 339 yards and a touchdown, so if he can keep his passing upside momentum going we can see another positive day with multiple touchdowns thrown. Especially if the Jets again are missing Breece Hall this week, but not dependent on that.
Commanders vs. Saints
In Week 14, Brian Robinson rushed for 103 yards which was the most gained on the ground since Week 2’s 133 yards. Robinson scored his eighth rushing touchdown of the season, which through 10 appearances shows a nose for the end zone. Robinson has rushed for over 100 yards three times and over 60 yards six times. BRob has finished seven weeks with 13+ Fantasy Points, and three weeks with over 17 Fantasy Points. Robinson has an opportunity to stay hot on the ground in Week 15 against a Saints defense allowing the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the eighth-most rushing yards per game this season.
Ravens vs. Giants
You are obviously starting Derrick Henry every week for Fantasy Football, so maybe this is a DFS plug, but with the Giants allowing the seventh-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the fourth-most rushing yards per game we should be excited. As long as this game does not get completely out of hand. Henry’s 240 carries this season rank third, his 1,407 rushing yards rank second, his 15 total touchdowns rank first, and his 19.6 Fantasy PPG rank third. Via playerprofiler, Henry ranks #11 in evaded tackles, #4 in explosive rating, and #3 in breakaway runs which are three categories you would not tie to most 30-year-olds.
Following the Week 11 BYE, first-round rookie Malik Nabers has averaged 10.67 targets, 6.33 receptions, 70.67 receiving yards, and 14.2 Fantasy Points. Not terrible numbers there, but nothing compared to the three-game stretch back in Weeks 2-4 where Nabers averaged 15 targets, 10 receptions, 106.67 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 26.67 Fantasy Points. With Tommy DeVito at quarterback, I think the ceiling we were in love with probably is not the most likely but that same ceiling speaks to Nabers’ talent. We are desperate for a big game out of the rookie, with Nabers scoring under 15.4 Fantasy Points for seven straight games. The Ravens are a great wide receiver matchup, allowing the second-most Fantasy PPG to the position and also the most passing yards per game in general. As of Wednesday, Nabers is questionable due to a report he was working on the side but he was questionable last week and ended up playing.
Bengals vs. Titans
Chase Brown has been the hottest running back in Fantasy Football across the last five games played. When a player stays consistently Fantasy productive, you play them regardless of the matchup. Across the last five games played Brown has averaged 17.6 rushing attempts, 75.2 rushing yards, 4.28 yards per carry, 0.4 rushing touchdowns, 5.6 receptions, 48.2 receiving yards, 0.4 receiving touchdowns, and 22.34 Fantasy Points. Some may look at Brown as a fifth-round talent capitalizing on opportunity but you cannot fluke consistent production in the NFL. If the Bengals can manage this matchup comfortably against the 3-10 Titans, we can be looking at continued production that translates great for Fantasy out of Brown.
Although 12.9 Fantasy Points in Week 14 for Calvin Ridley was not a huge matchup booster, the seven catches on 12 targets stat-line is one worth noting. Ridley has produced a lot of average Fantasy weeks this season but when he hits, he hits, which is evident by his three scores over 22 Fantasy Points. Two touchdowns in Week 10 and 143 receiving yards back in Week 8 are the upside factors we look for. What we can count on at the end of the day is target volume, with Ridley averaging 7.6 targets per game with a 26.1% target share. The Bengals allow the 12th-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the sixth-most passing yards per game which lines up ti Ridley being a FLEX play if Will Levis can step up in Week 15.
Patriots vs. Cardinals
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed 18-20 times for 73-74 yards in three of his last four games. What has been missing the last four weeks is any sort of touchdown production, with Stevenson totaling seven on the year. One positive note is the 21+ touches Stevenson has earned in four of his last six games played, which is solid volume and simply gives him more chances to score Fantasy Points. There have been four weeks this season that Rhamondre has scored over 19 Fantasy Points, and three weeks he has scored over 21 Fantasy Points, so the potential is there be a Fantasy difference-maker. The Cardinals allow the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season while being tougher on the other positions so this could be a FLEX-worthy week for Stevenson.
Kyler Murray has had a handful of big scoring weeks for Fantasy this season with 28.5 points in Week 2, 24.1 points in Week 5, 20.2 points in Week 7, 22.2 points in Week 8, and 28.7 points in Week 10. Kyler has also finished with under 15 points on six different occasions. Following the BYE Murray started off on the wrong foot but has been trending up each week in the right direction. Kyler has thrown for over 250 yards six times this season, and three of those came in his last three games in a row. Murray has thrown multiple touchdowns three times this season and one of those times was just last week. Murray has rushed for over 45+ yards six times this season and just recently hit that mark in Week 13. The Patriots allow the 13th-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season and can present a matchup for Murray to get back to his upside scoring for Fantasy in Week 15.
Colts vs. Broncos
Jonathan Taylor had a productive day at the office last week, rushing 25 times for 96 yards and also catching a seven-yard pass for a touchdown which was 17.3 Fantasy Points. Taylor rushed for 114 yards back in Week 10, 105 yards in Week 8, 110 yards in Week 3, and 103 yards in Week 2. We know that JT has historically had major upside on the ground rushing, which we are seeing this season, but what is missing is the touchdown scoring. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Taylor has scored just one rushing touchdown through six games. When it comes to this tough Denver defense, I am not sure I would trust anyone else in the offense outside of Taylor heading into this matchup. I have a feeling I am not the only one thinking this, and that the actual Colts gameplan does not revolve around Anthony Richardson winning the game but Taylor being fed and emphasized. I would not be shocked if he earned over 25 touches once again, just like last week.
Week 13 prior to the BYE was a down week for Fantasy from Bo Nix, but I expect a bounce-back performance in Week 15. Nix will face a Colts defense that allows the 11th-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the seventh-most passing yards per game this season. Nix is having a stellar rookie season, surprising many by currently ranking 10th in Fantasy PPG at 18.1. Nix has displayed plenty of Fantasy upside, with six games of 19+ Fantasy Points and four games of 20+ Fantasy Points. Nix has passed for over 270 yards in four of his last six games, tossed 17 touchdowns, and added four more scores with his legs. I expect another big week out of the rookie in Week 15.
Bills vs. Lions
14 targets for Amari Cooper last week was very encouraging after combining for 13 in the four other games he has been a Bill. The result was six catches for 95 yards and 15.5 Fantasy Points. Six catches on 14 targets may not be super efficient, but Josh Allen did look for Cooper often and he had three receptions go for 18-26 yards. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid may be back this week, but I expect Cooper to continue being a huge part of this Bills game plan, especially with a great offense on the other side of the ball. When Cooper arrived in Buffalo, I think we all expected him to take on the WR1 role and I think he is progressing into it. The Lions allow the eighth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and 10th-most passing yards per game this season which further emphasizes Cooper being FLEX’d in a big matchup.
David Montgomery has scored 15+ Fantasy Points for four straight weeks now and is averaging 16.5 Fantasy PPG on the year (#11). One of the biggest qualities Monty brings to the table is the touchdown scoring, with him totaling 12 on the year with a lot of that being connected to his 53 red zone touches which ranks third for the position. Monty rushed for 88 yards in Week 13 then caught five passes in Week 14 which alludes to some dual-threat usage even with Jahmyr Gibbs very involved in the offense. Monty faces off against a Bills defense allowing the third-most Fantasy PPG to running backs which presents a great opportunity to have a solid day in a big offensive battle.
Buccaneers vs. Chargers
In deeper leagues, there is the potential for rookie Jalen McMillan to become of Fantasy use. Tampa Bay suffered a huge blow losing Chris Godwin this season, and even when Mike Evans has been healthy they still have needed a WR2 to step up. In Week 14 McMillan caught four of his seven targets for 59 yards with two of those catches being scores. 21.9 Fantasy Points was one of the bigger surprises of the week. If McMillan’s role can become consistent he could turn into a FLEX play down the stretch.
Justin Herbert will bounce back for Fantasy Football in Week 15. Herbert is coming off of two down Fantasy weeks but logged five straight top-12 Fantasy finishes prior to that. When specifically looking at Weeks 8-11, Herbert averaged 28.25 passing attempts, 17.25 completions, 255.5 passing yards, 1.76 passing touchdowns, 37 rushing yards, 0.25 rushing touchdowns, and 21.95 Fantasy Points. Herbert has a great opportunity in Week 15 to mirror those performances against a Buccaneers defense allowing the most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the third-most passing yards per game this season.
Steelers vs. Eagles
The Eagles are a tough defense across the board this year to play for Fantasy Football, but I do want to highlight a Fantasy riser in Pat Freiermuth the last two weeks. Muth caught six of his seven targets for 68 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 for 18.8 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 14 Muth caught all three targets for 48 yards and a touchdown for 13.8 Fantasy Points. The Steelers will likely be without George Pickens this week due to injury, so with Russell Wilson likely forced to throw the ball heavily in this one I would expect the targets to be similar to Week 13 for a guy finding the endzone at ease lately.
There has been a lot of turmoil between AJ Brown’s frustration with Jalen Hurts… and Jalen Hurts’ frustration with AJ Brown’s reactions to that. AJB has been open to the media regarding this topic. AJB has been targeted just 10 times the last two weeks combined with receiving yard totals of 66 and 43 which have meant 11.6 then 8.3 Fantasy Points. This is a guy we have seen produce over 100 receiving yards in 40% of his games this season. I can see one of two routes here: 1) the last two weeks remain the same and AJB is targeted moderately OR 2) AJ Brown is force-fed in an effort to “get right” and address the unhappiness. If option #2 happens.. I do not want to miss out on playing AJ Brown with 10+ targets knowing his upside.
Packers vs. Seahawks (Sunday Night Football)
Josh Jacobs has had a great first season in Green Bay, but following the Week 10 BYE Josh Jacobs has consistently been on fire for four weeks. Some of the biggest upside factors within this stretch is 106 rushing yards in Week 12, 58, and 74 receiving yards in Weeks 11/13, three rushing touchdowns in Weeks 12/14, and eight total rushing touchdowns. 23.4, 28.6, 21.7, then 24.6 Fantasy Points. Jacobs has been the leader of this offense – not Jordan Love. Jacobs now faces a Seahawks defense allowing the 11th-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the 12th-most rushing yards per game this season.
In the absence of Kenneth Walker III last week Zach Charbonnet rushed 22 times for 134 yards, scored two rushing touchdowns, caught seven passes for 59 yards, and totaled a massive 38.3 Fantasy Points. I do not care what the matchup is… as long as KWIII is off the field Charbs needs to stay in your lineup. Massive volume and massive production in Week 14 is “Nuff said” for that.
Bears vs. Vikings (Monday Night Football)
Caleb Williams has tossed seven touchdowns across the last three games and has finished as a top-five quarterback with 26-ish points in two of those weeks. One of those specific weeks was against the Vikings in Week 12 where the 1.01 selection of 2024 threw for 340 yards, two passing touchdowns, and rushed for 33 yards. There have been four occasions where Williams finished as a top-seven quarterback this season, so the talent that was tied tightly to his prospect profile has definitely flashed at times. The Vikings allow the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, and with Williams already having a big game against them not long ago I think Fantasy managers should have confidence plugging him into their lineups.
The Bears allow the eighth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season so this is a plus matchup that Aaron Jones has already thrived in. In Week 12 against the Bears, Jones rushed 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown as well as caught three passes for 23 yards which was 19.9 Fantasy Points. Jones is coming off of a solid week, rushing for 73 yards and a touchdown. Switching within the division from green and yellow to purple and yellow has meant some solid weeks in year one as a Viking for Jones, who has five games over 90 rushing yards paired with six total touchdowns on the year. You should have confidence in Jones for Week 15.
Falcons vs. Raiders
A lot of people will hate me saying this but I believe Week 15 will finally be a good Kyle Pitts week for Fantasy Football. Pitts has not scored 10 points since Week 8 where he caught four balls for 91 yards and two scores which was 25.1 Fantasy Points. A positive to note from last week was the six targets earned despite only catching one for 14 yards. The Raiders allow the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to tight ends which just screams “Get Kyle Pitts rolling” in this one.
Desmond Ridder REVENGE GAME? I don’t know…that would be cool though. I do know that the Falcons are a great wide receiver matchup allowing the third-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the eight-most passing yards per game this season. This speaks well for Jakobi Meyers who has been a great FLEX play when healthy this year and is coming off of 22.1, 15.7, and 13.7 Fantasy weeks in the last three games. Meyers has scored over 15 Fantasy Points in five of his 11 appearances and over 21 Fantasy Points twice. 15, 11, and 10 targets in the last three weeks speak to the emphasis and importance of Meyers in this Raiders offense. While the quarterback play is in question for this week, the matchup and season Meyers is having keep him as a quality FLEX option for Week 15.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!