I invest significant time and effort into this series and take pride in identifying players who are likely to outperform expectations each week. This article is designed to help you optimize your Fantasy Football lineups and make informed daily fantasy sports (DFS) decisions, giving you a competitive advantage.
I analyze NFL matchups weekly, focusing on factors such as Fantasy points allowed per game, yards allowed, and player performances to predict who will excel. I take full accountability for both my successful picks and any misses. Some misses from last week included Terry McLaurin, Nick Chubb, Mark Andrews, Kyren Williams, Kareem Hunt
- Joe Mixon – 35.3 Fantasy Points
- Jared Goff – 24.6 Fantasy Points
- Justin Herbert – 24.4 Fantasy Points
- Josh Jacobs – 23.4 Fantasy Points
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 21.8 Fantasy Points
- De’Von Achane – 20.5 Fantasy Points
- Chase Brown – 19.3 Fantasy Points
- George Pickens – 16.9 Fantasy Points
- Courtland Sutton – 14.8 Fantasy Points
This week we have all of the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, and Jets on a BYE. That means players like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Josh Allen, James Cook, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, TAYSOM HILL, Alvin Kamara, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Breece Hall are all out of the mix. That means hitting on the available players is even more vital for Week 12. As always, my intention from the start of content creation has been to “Help You Play 2 Win”. Let’s get it!
Fantasy Football Week 12 Matchup Winners
Steelers vs. Browns (Thursday Night Football)
George Pickens has been one of the biggest risers in Fantasy Football the last couple of weeks due to the quarterback change to Russell Wilson and the connection these two have established. Here is how those games have looked:
- Week 7: Five catches on nine targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. 22.1 Fantasy Points
- Week 8: Four catches on five targets for 74 yards. A touchdown was called back this game that was controversial. 11.4 Fantasy Points
- Week 9: BYE
- Week 10: Five catches on seven targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. 20.5 Fantasy Points
- Week 11: Eight catches on 12 targets for 89 yards. 16.9 Fantasy Points
Consistent production the last four weeks with upside evident in receiving yards and touchdowns. Pickens now heads into a matchup against a Browns defense allowing the fourth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season.
Jerry Jeudy has been another player trending up the last three weeks. 12.9 to 14.3 to 26.2 Fantasy Points makes that clear. The volume has been solid across these three games with Jameis Winston with eight, 11,and 11 targets followed by consistent yardage production with 79, 73, and then 142 receiving yards. The Steelers are not a great Fantasy matchup for any specific position, but with 11 targets going Jeudy’s way last week and him producing 142 yards and a touchdown you minds well FLEX the hot hand.
Chiefs vs. Panthers
In Week 11 we saw a Chiefs tight catch a pair of touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes and it was not Travis Kelce but Noah Gray. A down week for Kelce but he will bounce back in Week 12. In weeks 8-10 Kelce averaged 13.33 targets, 10.67 receptions, 84.67 receiving yards, 0.67 touchdowns, and 22.47 Fantasy Points on absolute fire. The Panthers allow the most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season, which further emphasizes Kelce shaking off a bad week.
Rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders can be looked at as a deeper tight end streamer this week against a Cheifs defense allowing the fifth most Fantasy PPG this season. We have seen some positive flashes for Sanders this season including five or more targets in four of his last six games. Sanders finished weeks with 49 (Week 6), 61 (Week 7), and 87 (Week 9) receiving yards. Sanders scored last week and has played 85% then 88% of the snaps the last two games. Bryce Young threw 37 times back in Week 8 and Patrick Mahomes may just force his hand to do something similar in Week 12 which could boost Sanders’ opportunity.
Vikings vs. Bears
Aaron Jones is another bounce-back candidate this week after an inefficient Week 11 in a game where Cam Akers found the end zone. Chicago allowed Josh Jacobs to rush for 76 yards and a touchdown last week, Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for 74 yards in Week 10, and James Conner to rush for 107 yards in Week 9. Jones has finished weeks with 94 (Week 1), 102 (Week 3), 93 (Week 4), 93 (Week 7), and 88 (Week 10) rushing yards as well as four weeks with four or more catches which shows his historic dual-threat upside. Jones has finished with 17+ Fantasy Points four times this year, and after four straight weeks under 13 Fantasy Points, it is time to get right.
A sneaky FLEX this week is Rome Odunze who quietly led the Bears last week in targets with 10. Odunze earned six or seven targets in the three games before Week 11, and with him leading the team in targets in the first game post-firing Offensive-Coordinator Shane Waldron that is encouraging. Odunze caught six balls last week for 65 yards. Back in Week 9, Odunze caught five passes for 104 yards. In Week 3 Odunze caught six of 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown for 23.4 Fantasy Points. I am a believer in the talent of Caleb Williams and he looked much more the part last week, the Vikings allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and also the fifth-most passing yards per game this year so I am feeling a solid Odunze Week 12.
Titans vs. Texans
Calvin Ridley has finished with over 22 Fantasy Points in two of his last four games. Ridley caught 10 of 15 targets for 143 yards back in Week 8 and then caught five of his nine targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10. What is most encouraging about Ridley is the consistent volume coming in the last six weeks, where Ridley has averaged 9.2 targets per game during that span. Ridley will face a Texans defense in Week 12 that allows the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Week 12 feels like a big bounce-back week for Ridley.
In Week 11, Nico Collins returned to the lineup after missing four full games due to injury. Nico was targeted seven times and caught four of those for 54 yards playing just 47% of the snaps. Collins opened up the season with scores of 17.7 (Week 1), 27.5 (Week 2), and 33.1 (Week 4) Fantasy Points which shows his continued strong connection to CJ Stroud. Look for Collins to take a huge leap in his snap percentage played in Week 12, which should mean more heavy volume and chances to produce against the Titans.
Lions vs. Colts
After a string of very average to below-average Fantasy outputs, Jared Goff bounced back in a major way in Week 11 with a massive 34.58 Fantasy Points. Goff threw an efficient 24/29 for 412 yards, four passing touchdowns, and even rushed for 21 yards. Season-highs in both passing and rushing yards along with touchdown passes. Goff has finished seven weeks with multiple passing touchdowns and three weeks with over 300 passing yards which shows his upside potential through the air. The Colts allow the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the seventh-most passing yards per game this season which creates a nice opportunity for Goff to stay hot.
Josh Downs is quietly having himself a breakout sophomore season averaging 14.7 Fantasy PPG which ranks 17th for the position. Downs missed the opening two weeks but has since averaged 8.3 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 60.4 receiving yards per game. Even with missing two games Downs ranks #12 in slot snaps, #11 in red zone targets, and #12 in yards after the catch. Downs’ 26.3% target share ranks 12th and he has earned nine or more targets in six of his nine games played. 84 yards and a touchdown last week hopefully eased the concerns about his potential with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Downs faces a Lions defense that allows the eighth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the sixth most passing yards per game this year.
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Rhamondre Stevenson caught fire in Weeks 8/9 with scores of 23.5 and 22.4 Fantasy Points before cooling off the next two weeks with scores under 13 points. Stevenson has been successful in finding the end zone this year with six rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown which has elevated some of his Fantasy weeks. Stevenson has five weeks with under 50 rushing yards but has trended up the last two weeks with 74/73 yards despite that not leading to Fantasy success. Stevenson has also caught four or more passes in two of his last three games along with four times this season. The Dolphins are tougher through the air but allow the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season which could mean Stevenson upping his Fantasy scores from the last two games.
Back in Week 5 against the Patriots, De’Von Achane only played 14% of the snaps and ended up leaving due to entering the concussion protocol. The Tyler Huntley led Dolphins that week totaled 193 total rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The Patriots rank 10th in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs this season which is encouraging for Achane. Just last week Achane rushed 17 times for 73 yards and a touchdown and also added four receptions for another 32 yards. Achane has scored over 20 Fantasy Points five times this season, and all five games came when playing in the six games Tua Tagovailoa has appeared in this year.
Buccaneers vs. Giants
Bucky Irving may be a sneaky running back play this week for Fantasy Football. The rookie rushed 13 times for 73 yards and a touchdown right before the Week 10 BYE for 17.7 Fantasy Points. Irving rushed for 81 yards and a touchdown back in Week 6 for a season-high 18.1 Fantasy Points, has totaled four rushing touchdowns on the season, and has scored over 15 points in four of his last five games. Some of that is due to some receiving upside as well with 54/40 receiving yards back in Weeks 7/8. I think there is a chance this Week 12 matchup is not much of a contest with Tommy DeVito now leading the Giants. In the event the Buccaneers take firm control of this one, it could mean Bucky earning a boost in rushing attempts due to the game script. The Giants also allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season which could mean a successful day on the ground in general beyond a projected game script.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a solid rushing day right before the Week 10 BYE, rushing 18 times for 103 yards and a touchdown for 15.4 Fantasy Points. In Week 8 Tracy rushed 20 times for 145 yards and a touchdown for 23 Fantasy Points. In Week 6 Tracy rushed for a touchdown and caught six passes for 57 yards for 22.7 Fantasy Points. In Week 5 Tracy rushed 18 times for 129 yards for 14 Fantasy Points. The rookie has been very productive since shifting in as the Giants’ RB1. When it comes to who we can trust in this offense now that the Giants have shifted to Tommy DeVito, the list is likely small but Tracy comes to mind. The Buccaneers allow the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season, and seeing the success on the ground and flash through the air for Tracy I am keeping him in my lineups.
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Luke Schoonmaker may be a deeper-league tight end to stream this week if Jake Ferguson misses Week 12 following his Week 11 concussion. Schoonmaker stepped into the lead tight end role in Week 11, catching six of his 10 targets for 56 yards which was 11.6 Fantasy Points. 10 targets while playing 53% of the snaps shows a clear connection to Cooper Rush, which likely was established through training with the non-starters this season. Should the former second-round selection by Dallas start again at tight end, he could earn some solid targets once again in this matchup and he did well with that just last week.
Brian Robinson returned to the Commanders’ lineup in Week 11 after missing two straight games to rush 16 times for 63 yards and a touchdown for 14.2 Fantasy Points. Through eight games played this season Robinson has totaled seven rushing touchdowns, five games over 60 rushing yards, two games over 100 rushing yards, six weeks of 13+ Fantasy Points, and two weeks over 17 Fantasy Points. The Cowboys allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the second-most rushing yards per game this season. A Cooper Rush-led offense could mean plenty of rushing opportunities for the Commanders in this one.
Broncos vs. Raiders
Bo Nix had another huge performance in Week 11 throwing 28/33 (84.8%) for 307 yards and four passing touchdowns. Season highs there in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. 28.8 Fantasy Points meant a QB3 Fantasy finish last week, and Week 11 was the second time this year Nix has finished with over 28 Fantasy Points, and the fourth time he scored over 21 points. Nix has been one of the bigger Fantasy surprises of the season and should have shifted from Fantasy streamer to weekly Fantasy starter as the QB7 on the season right now. The Raiders allow the eighth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s plug Brock Bowers quickly here, even in a poor Denver matchup through the air. 13 catches on 16 targets for 126 receiving yards and a touchdown for 31.3 Fantasy Points. On pace for a historic rookie season. Sam LaPorta broke the rookie tight end reception record last year which is now 86. Bowers currently has 70 receptions, which means he has seven games to catch 17 balls. Mike Ditka holds the rookie receiving yard record with 1,076 yards. Bowers can break this record if he can produce 371 more yards in seven games. Pending health – Bowers smashes both.
49ers vs. Packers
George Kittle is currently averaging 17.6 Fantasy PPG which ranks first for the position and is a career-best. Kittle’s seven receiving touchdowns is already his second-highest season total so far. Kittle ranks second for the position in receiving yards (560), fifth in yards after the catch (227), second in yards per target (10.6), fourth in yards per reception (13), and second in yards per route run (2.69). There will be a lot of offense in this 49ers vs Packers matchup in Week 12, and the Packers allow the 12th most Fantasy PPG to tight ends which makes it look like a high-volume script with a potential Kittle emphasis.
Jayden Reed has finished weeks with 138 (Week 1), 139 (Week 4), and 113 (Week 9) receiving yards. Reed has accounted for five total touchdowns this season for the Packers and opened up the first five weeks of the season rushing for 110 yards. Reed’s versatility has been evident through the way he is implemented into the Packers offense which could be a mixture of screens, deep passes, routes across the middle, rushing plays, etc. I have a feeling Reed’s role is going to be boosted against another solid offense with the 49ers in Week 12.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Marvin Harrison Jr. has scored two touchdowns across the last three games played. MHJ finished with 111 yards back in Week 8 which is the first time he has surpassed 100 yards since his massive 130 yards in Week 2. The rookie has scored six receiving touchdowns this year and has finished five weeks with over 15 Fantasy Points. The rookie has had waves of disappointments throughout the season, evident by five weeks with under six Fantasy Points. Week 12 there may be an emphasis on the Cardinals’ first-round selection following the Week 11 BYE. The Seahawks allow the 12th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season, and with playmakers on the other side of the ball, this week will be crucial to get MHJ rolling.
Kenneth Walker III has finished with 13-ish Fantasy Points for two weeks in a row now, but I feel it is time for another big game. KWIII opened up the season rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown for 18.9 points. In Week 4 Walker rushed for 80 yards and three touchdowns and added four catches for another 36 yards which was 33.6 Fantasy Points. In Weeks 6/7 KWIII finished with 20.9/23.3 Fantasy Points due to catching eight passes in one then rushing for 69 yards in the next with two total touchdowns. We have seen a mixture of upside from Walker this season, and the Cardinals allow the eighth most Fantasy PPG to running backs. Last season KWIII rushed for 105 and then 78 yards against the Cardinals in their two matchups.
Eagles vs. Rams (Sunday Night Football)
AJ Brown finished with 65 yards in Week 11, which would be a decent day at the office for most wide receivers but a down game for him. AJB has finished games with 119 (Week 1), 116 (Week 6), 89 (Week 7), 84 (Week 8), and 109 (Week 10) receiving yards this season while missing three full games. Encouraging from Week 11 was the eight targets, which was the highest total for AJB since Week 6. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the other side of the ball will likely mean AJB and DeVonta Smith needing to show out on the Eagles side in Week 12. The Rams allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season.
Take some of what I just said above and flip it to the Rams Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Ballers on one side showing out will mean the ballers on the other side showing out. Looking specifically at Cooper Kupp, since returning from the lineup he has scored 15+ Fantasy Points in all four games played with half of those being scores of 21+ Fantasy Points. Kupp has also produced over 100 receiving yards in two of his last four games, which is the upside we know he has connected to Matthew Stafford. The Eagles are a poor passing matchup but the way McVay gets his guys involved typically goes beyond the traditional wide receiver playbooks.
Ravens vs. Chargers (Monday Night Football)
Zay Flowers has finished with 7.4 then 11.9 Fantasy Points the last two weeks with under 40 receiving yards in both games. Do not let this turn you off from plugging Zay back into your lineups this week. Flowers has earned 10+ targets in four games, produced 90+ yards in five games, produced 111+ yards in four games, scored four receiving touchdowns, scored 18+ Fantasy Points five times and 22+ Fantasy Points three times this season.
Ladd McConkey has put together two big-time performances across the last four weeks. Back in Week 8 McConkey caught all six targets for 111 receiving yards and two touchdowns for 29.1 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 11 Ladd caught six of his nine targets for 123 receiving yards which was 18.3 Fantasy Points. A season-high in targets last week leading to a season-high in heavy receiving yards should be extremely encouraging for the second-round rookie. Especially against the Ravens who have allowed the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the most passing yards per game this season. Justin Herbert has been one of the biggest risers in production following the Week 5 BYE, and he looks well-connected with McConkey.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!