I dedicate a considerable amount of time and effort to this series, and I take pride in identifying players who are likely to exceed expectations each week. This article aims to help you optimize your Fantasy Football lineups and make informed decisions for daily fantasy sports (DFS), giving you a competitive edge.
I analyze NFL matchups weekly, focusing on factors such as Fantasy points allowed per game, yards allowed, and player performances to predict who will excel. I take full accountability for both my successful picks and any misses. Some misses from last week included George Pickens, Rome Odunze, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jayden Reed. The hits for Week 12’s article included:
- Bucky Irving – 27.1 Fantasy Points
- AJ Brown – 22.9 Fantasy Points
- De’Von Achane – 20.6 Fantasy Points
- Nico Collins – 20.2 Fantasy Points
- George Kittle – 20.2 Fantasy Points
- Aaron Jones – 19.9 Fantasy Points
- Bo Nix – 19.4 Fantasy Points
- Jerry Jeudy – 14.5 Fantasy Points
- Luke Schoonmaker – 14.5 Fantasy Points
- Calvin Ridley – 14.3 Fantasy Points
- Ladd McConkey – 14.3 Fantasy Points
There are NO BYE TEAMS in Week 13 which makes for a fun week. Three games on Thanksgiving and a game on Friday add to the fun. I hope you enjoy this holiday week with your family and this article means you catching some dubs in your Fantasy Football matchups and DFS contests. Let’s roll!
2024 Fantasy Football: Week 13 Matchup Winners
THANKSGIVING SLATE
Bears vs. Lions
JJ Zachariason mentioned the Bears’ emphasis on getting the ball into DJ Moore’s hands more effectively following the firing of their Offensive Coordinator which was evident from DJ Moore’s shift from a 9.4 average depth of target (aDot) to 1.9 the last two games. DJ Moore has showcased his playmaking skills with this low aDot, catching all 14 targets during this span for 62 and 106 receiving yard totals and a touchdown across the last two weeks. 13.7 then 26.9 Fantasy Points during this span. The Lions allow the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the eighth-most passing yards per game this year. Last year DJ Moore averaged 6.5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 24.7 Fantasy Points against the Lions.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been great the last two weeks for Fantasy Football, with scores of 19.3 then 24.9. Gibbs has scored 17+ Fantasy Points seven total times this season. In Week 11, Gibbs rushed 11 times for 69 yards and a touchdown then took one catch for 54 yards. In Week 12 Gibbs rushed 21 times for 90 yards and two touchdowns and finished with three catches for nine yards. Last year Gibbs averaged 51 rushing yards, a touchdown, 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 19.35 Fantasy Points against Chicago.
Giants vs. Cowboys
With this game being the battle of the backup quarterbacks, I feel super indifferent and carefree here.
I am not sure if you can completely trust anyone here. Tyrone Tracy has a great matchup on paper with Dallas allowing the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the second-most rushing yards per game this season. Tracy has finished games with 129 (Week 5), 145 (Week 8), and 103 (Week 10) rushing yards BUT has fumbled in two major key moments the last two weeks which has frustrated the Giants. While I like Tracy as a player, he has a great matchup and has shown upside I am slightly nervous at the risk of the Giants rolling out more Devin Singletary. That is your push-pull with Tracy – stash Singletary.
Last time the Giants played the Cowboys rookie Malik Nabers caught 12 passes for 115 yards and slot wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught 11 balls for 71 yards. Major volume and production out of that one-two punch. Darius Slayton also caught three passes for 56 yards in that game. So what I am saying here is that there is risk with the Giants’ quarterback situation but the team found ways to be successful against Dallas through the air earlier this season.
Dolphins vs. Packers
When it comes to Fantasy Football, sometimes it’s best to ride the hot hand until the wheels fall off. The hottest tight end in Fantasy Football right now is Jonnu Smith, the TE1 across the last two weeks in scoring. In Week 11 Smith caught six of his eight targets for 101 yards, two touchdowns, and finished with 28.1 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 12 Smith caught nine of 11 targets for 87 yards, scored another touchdown, and finished with 23.7 Fantasy Points. Great volume, great production, receiving yard upside, and touchdown upside have translated great for Fantasy Football the last two weeks. A connection with Tua Tagovailoa looks strong right now. Smith will face a Packers defense currently allowing the 10th-most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season which presents the opportunity to stay hot for Fantasy.
Following the Week 10 BYE, Josh Jacobs has been on fire for the Packers. Jacobs rushed 18 times for 76 yards and a touchdown, and caught four balls for 58 yards in Week 11 for 23.4 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 12 Jacobs rushed 26 times for 106 yards, three touchdowns, and scored 28.6 Fantasy Points. Jacobs’ hot streak goes beyond these two weeks though, as he has finished now with over 20 Fantasy Points in four of his last five games played. The Packers will need to have Jacobs stay hot in a big Miami matchup.
FRIDAY
Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs allow the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season and back in Week 8 rookie sensation Brock Bowers caught five passes for 58 yards against them in this first matchup. 26 targets the last two weeks has been solid volume, and Bowers’ best game of the season just happened in Week 11 with him catching 13 passes for 126 receiving yards, a touchdown, and finishing with 31.3 Fantasy Points. Bowers currently leads the position in targets (99), receptions (74), receiving yards (744), yards after the catch (378), and his 15.2 Fantasy PPG ranks second. This man is on pace to smash rookie tight-end records.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off of his best Fantasy score of the season with 28.76 points in Week 12. Mahomes threw 27/30 (73%) for 269 yards, three passing touchdowns, and a season-high 60 rushing yards. Mahomes has finished with three passing touchdowns in three of his last four games, which shows him heating up in that department. The Raiders allow the eighth-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks, and back in Week 8 Mahomes finished with 262 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, an interception, and 18.18 Fantasy Points against Vegas.
SUNDAY SLATE
Chargers vs. Falcons
Second-round rookie Ladd McConkey has had some solid flashes this year for Fantasy Football, and his upside has been rising over the last five weeks. Back in Week 8 Ladd caught all six targets for 111 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and scored 29.1 Fantasy Points. 64 receiving yards the very next week. In Week 11 McConkey caught six of his nine targets for a season-high 123 receiving yards which was 18.3 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 12 McConkey caught all six targets for 83 yards which was 14.3 Fantasy Points. Watching the Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer drops in Week 12 was painful. Ladd has had the sixth-most slot snaps via playerprofiler and has proven to be a reliable target with upside for Justin Herbert. The Falcons allow the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the seventh-most passing yards per game which further emphasizes McConkey in Fantasy lineups this week.
The Chargers struggled to defend the run in Week 12 against the Ravens with Derrick Henry rushing for 140 yards, Justice Hill rushing for 55 yards and a touchdown, and Lamar Jackson adding another touchdown on the ground. This is an encouraging sign for Bijan Robinson, who is looking to bounce back after the entire Falcons offense had a down Week 11. Prior to Week 11 Bijan was on absolute fire Weeks 6-10 averaging 17.6 carries, 92.6 rushing yards, a rushing touchdown, 4.6 receptions, 36 receiving yards, and 24.66 Fantasy Points.
Steelers vs. Bengals
A George Pickens big game is going to be needed in Week 13 from the Steelers. Pickens had a down Week 12 but has looked great in the previous four games with Russell Wilson as the starter. In Week 7 Pickens caught five of his nine targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. Pickens then finished with 74 yards in Week 8. After the Week 9 BYE Pickens caught five of his seven targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. Then in Week 11 Pickens caught eight of a season-high 12 targets for 89 yards. Weeks of 22.1, 20.5, and 16.9 Fantasy Points within this mentioned stretch. The Bengals allow the 10th-most passing yards per game this season and this game script could emphasize plenty through the air to boost Pickens’ potential in the matchup.
The Steelers allowed Nick Chubb to rush for two touchdowns last week, Derrick Henry to rush for a touchdown the week prior, Austin Ekeler to rush for two touchdowns in Week 10, and Tyrone Tracy to rush for 145 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 which shows the potential upside on the ground for opponents across the last four straight games. Chase Brown has been on fire the last three weeks for Fantasy Football with scores of 26.7, then 22.4, then 19.3 points. Brown rushed 27 times for 120 yards and caught five passes for 37 yards and a receiving touchdown back in Week 9. In Week 10 Brown rushed 13 times for 42 yards and a touchdown and caught a season-high nine passes for 52 yards. Then in Week 11 Brown rushed 22 times for 86 yards and caught five passes for 57 yards. A combination of rushing and receiving upside has made Chase Brown one of the best running backs to roster the last three weeks. Ride the hot hand.
Texans vs. Jaguars
CJ Stroud has had a disappointing fantasy football season vs. pre-season expectations, but I am high on him having a big game in Week 13. The Jaguars allow the most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks as well as the most passing yards per game this year, which is a matchup Stroud knows all too well as it was his best passing yard and Fantasy scoring game this year. Back in Week 4 vs. the Jaguars Stroud threw for 345 yards, two passing touchdowns, rushed for 17 yards, and finished with 23.5 Fantasy Points. Nico Collins returned from injury in Week 11 but looked his healthy self in Week 12 catching five passes for 92 yards and a touchdown, which is another encouraging booster for Stroud. Stroud has top-1o upside this week for Fantasy Football and has finished as a top 12 Fantasy quarterback in all three career matchups against Jacksonville.
Week 12 meant some encouraging signs for first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. after a pair of down games. BTJ caught five of his seven targets for 82 yards which was 13.6 Fantasy Points. BTJ has finished three weeks this season with over 21 Fantasy Points, with one of those games coming in Week 4 against Houston. BTJ caught six of his nine targets for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Texans for 21.9 Fantasy Points. A rematch against a team he was already successful against, that allows the seventh-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers sounds great for Week 13. Thomas Jr. has finished five weeks with over 80 receiving yards and scored five touchdowns this season.
Check out all of our Week 13 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Cardinals vs. Vikings
The Vikings are a very Fantasy Football-friendly team to wide receivers, but let’s be honest when we look at Trey McBride we think of him more so as that vs. a tight-end. The Vikings also allow the fifth-most passing yards per game this season. McBride is coming off his best game of the season last week, catching 12 of his 15 targets for 133 yards which was 25.3 Fantasy Points. McBride has been a near bust-proof play for the position, scoring double-digit Fantasy Points for seven straight games. Four weeks over 17 Fantasy Points and two weeks over 21 Fantasy Points without scoring a single touchdown speaks to McBride’s true upside. McBride has finished weeks with 96 (Week 6), 124 (Week 8), 71 (Week 10), and 133 (Week 12) receiving yards this year. While first-round rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has flashed this year, he also has had plenty of down weeks that do not show the connection that we have seen the last two years between McBride and Kyler Murray.
Aaron Jones is coming off of a solid Week 12 performance after having a string of average weeks prior. Jones rushed 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 23 yards which was 19.9 Fantasy Points. Week 12 was the fifth time Jones rushed for 88+ yards, the second time he rushed for over 100 yards, the fifth time he finished with 17+ Fantasy Points, and the third time he scored over 19 Fantasy Points. The Cardinals allow the 12th most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season which could mean another solid week for Jones in a row.
Colts vs. Patriots
Week 13 is a great one for Jonathan Taylor to bounce back for Fantasy Football. Since returning from injury in Week 8, JT has finished games with 18.7 (Week 8) and 14.2 (Week 10) Fantasy Points but has finished the other three with under nine points. Prior to injury, JT scored 10.8, 15.5, 26.5, and 19.8 Fantasy Points in the opening five weeks. Through nine games played, JT has rushed for over 100 yards in four of them, which shows the historic upside we know well for Fantasy Football. The Patriots allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season and turn into a game where the volume is in Taylor’s favor to allow him more opportunities to rack those yards up.
Hunter Henry is a solid streaming tight end option for Week 13 if that has been your strategy this year. Henry has finished five weeks with double-digit Fantasy scores, with two of those games resulting in over 17 points. What I like most about Henry is the target volume coming in, with him earning eight or more targets in four of his last six games played and seven times this season. Henry is averaging 52.33 receiving yards across the last six weeks. The Colts allow the eighth most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season.
Seahawks vs. Jets
The Jets are not a good wide receiver matchup on paper, but that should not hold you back from keeping Jaxon Smith-Njigba in your lineup. Slot wide receiver Josh Downs did just finish with five catches for 84 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against the Jets before the BYE, which is encouraging for the Seahawks’ slot stud. JSN is having a breakout season, averaging 15.3 Fantasy PPG which ranks 14th for the position. JSN ranks first in slot snaps, sixth in targets (93), sixth in receptions (66), seventh in receiving yards (755), and #6 in yards after the catch (338) which shows a mixture of solid volume, production, and playmaking. JSN has been on fire the last three weeks averaging 10.33 targets, 7.67 receptions, 122.33 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 26.17 Fantasy Points.
Prior to the Week 12 BYE, Davante Adams led the Jets with 72 receiving yards in Week 11. Adams exploded in Week 9 catching seven of his 11 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown for 22.1 Fantasy Points. Adams has been targeted 11, 13, and seven times in the last three games played with at least six receptions in each of them. Adams has gradually shifted into a more trusted FLEX after a slow start in New York. Breece Hall popped up on the injury report, and even though Braelon Allen is a solid handcuff this could mean fewer plays designed for Hall through the air and targets pushed to Adams / Garrett Wilson.
Titans vs. Commanders
Calvin Ridley has had some really encouraging games across the last five weeks of football. In Week 8 Ridley caught 10 of his 15 targets for 143 yards which was 22.6 Fantasy Points. Ridley produced 73 receiving yards in Week 9. Then in Week 10 Ridley caught five of his nine targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns which was 25.4 Fantasy Points. Just last week Ridley produced 93 yards. What is encouraging is that Will Levis is looking much better across the last three games, tossing five touchdowns during this span and finishing with 295 then 278 passing yards the last two weeks. Ridley should continue being a FLEX option in lineups.
Jayden Daniels had two down games in a row in Weeks 10 and 11 but bounced-back in a major way last week with a season-high 30.4 Fantasy Points. Daniels threw 25/38 (65.8%) for 275 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and rushed for 74 yards with a rushing touchdown. Daniels was the epitome of a dual-threat quarterback ast LSU, and is flashing the same with the Commanders evidenced by four weeks of over 250 passing yards and also three weeks of over 70 rushing yards. 2,613 passing yards ranks 11th for the position, 556 rushing yards ranks second, five rushing touchdowns is tied for second, and 19.9 Fantasy PPG ranks sixth. The Titans allow the 12th-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Bucky Irving is coming off of a monster week where he rushed 12 times for 87 yards and a touchdown and caught six passes for 64 yards which resulted in 27.1 Fantasy Points. Bucky played 52% of the snaps last week vs. Rachaad White’s 49%. Across the last six weeks, the rookie has produced 15+ Fantasy Points in five of them. During this six-game span, Bucky has rushed for over 70 yards three times, scored four rushing touchdowns, caught six-plus passes twice, and finished with 40+ receiving yards three times. Solid dual-threat production. Irving now faces a Panthers defense allowing the most Fantasy PPG to running backs and also the most rushing yards per game this season. Week 13 is a great opportunity to stay hot for Fantasy Football.
Maybe the score sheet does not properly reflect this, but Bryce Young looked good last week. Young threw for a season-high 263 passing yards and a touchdown in a close-call loss against the Chiefs. Adam Thielen returned from injury for the first time since Week 3, and caught three of his four targets for 57 yards. Thielen earned 137 targets, caught 103 of them for 1,014 receiving yards, and averaged 13.6 Fantasy PPG just last season with Young. The Buccaneers allow the eighth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the fourth-most passing yards per game this season which could boost Thielen to having his first big day of the 2024 season.
Rams vs. Saints
Cooper Kupp has scored 16.1, 21.4, 15, 28.6, and 20 Fantasy Points since returning from injury in Weeks 8-12. Across this same span of weeks also returning from injury Puka Nacua has scored 18.1, 2.1 (ejected), 18.8, 25.3, and 20.7 Fantasy Points. This is the best wide receiver duo in the NFL this year, when healthy. The Saints allow the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the third-most passing yards per game this season. So in the question of Puka or Kupp this week the answer is “both”. This also pushes the case for Matthew Stafford to start this week who ranks second in passing attempts, third in passing attempts, first in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns, and seventh in Fantasy Points during that 8-12 week span he has had healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Maybe this entire post was focused on Stafford in the end.
Play Taysom Hill. It is as simple as that. You legit have a Fantasy Football cheat code on your roster that you can slide into your tight end spot. The Saints are still very banged up, and this unicorn is filling several holes. Prior to the Week 12 BYE Hill rushed seven times for 138 yards and three touchdowns and caught eight of 10 targets for 50 yards for a week-winning 41.52 Fantasy Points. Hill also scored 16 Fantasy Points in Week 9 and 14.4 Fantasy Points in Week 4.
Eagles vs. Ravens
DeVonta Smith is still not practicing on Wednesday after missing Week 12 with a hamstring injury, which can even further emphasize the need to get AJ Brown the ball in a huge Week 13 matchup. AJB caught six of his seven targets last week for 109 yards and a touchdown for 22.9 Fantasy Points. This was the second time across the last three games Brown has finished with exactly 109 yards, and the fourth time this season he produced over 100 receiving yards through eight appearances. Brown now gets a Ravens defense in Week 13 that is allowing the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the second-most passing yards per game this season. Smash matchup for a receiver with one of the highest upsides in the NFL.
It has been a few weeks since we have had a big Zay Flowers game, but it is going to be needed in this big Week 13 matchup. Flowers back in Week 9 caught five passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns which was 29.7 Fantasy Points. The week prior Flowers caught seven of his 12 targets for 115 yards which was 18.5 Fantasy Points. Flowers produced 111/132 yards back in Weeks 5 and 6 as well. There has been plenty of upside this season out of the former first-round selection from 2023, and I think the Ravens head into this Eagles matchup with plenty of designed ways to get this man the ball in Week 13.
49ers vs Bills (Sunday Night)
Christian McCaffrey returned from injury in Week 10 and has produced 16.7, 14.6, and 7.8 Fantasy Points since. We have yet to see CMC in his expected form, and I think this Bills matchup in Week 13 will be just that. The Bills allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season, and getting the ball to McCaffrey should be an emphasis in this big matchup. CMC rushed for 1,459 yards, caught 67 balls for 564 yards, scored 21 total touchdowns, and averaged 24.5 Fantasy PPG just last year for the 49ers.
Keep an eye on Amari Cooper, who feels all but forgotten. Cooper returned from injury in Week 11 to play just 51% of the snaps but caught two passes for 55 yards. Cooper then had the benefit of the Week 12 BYE to get even healthier. Cooper caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in his first game as a Bill back in Week 7 prior to his Week 8 injury. An emphasis could be placed in Week 13 on Cooper.
Browns vs. Broncos
The Cleveland Browns allow the fifth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the ninth-most passing yards per game this season, so the emphasis of this game is going to be Courtland Sutton. Sutton deserves more hype and respect for his recent consistency. Weeks 8-12 Sutton has averaged 9.6 targets, 7.2 receptions, 93.4 receiving yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 20.78 Fantasy Points as the WR2 during this span. The connection to rookie Bo Nix, who has had a great season, looks like one of the better ones in the NFL right now.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!