I invest a significant amount of time and effort into this series, and I take pride in identifying players who are likely to exceed expectations each week. This article is designed to help you optimize your Fantasy Football lineups and make informed decisions for daily fantasy sports (DFS), giving you a competitive edge.
I analyze NFL matchups weekly, focusing on factors such as Fantasy points allowed per game, yards allowed, and player performances to predict who will excel. I take full accountability for both my successful picks and any misses. Some misses from last week included Jahmyr Gibbs, Patrick Mahomes, CJ Stroud, Aaron Jones, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Calvin Ridley, AJ Brown, and Zay Flowers. The hits for Week 13’s article included:
- Brock Bowers – 30.2 Fantasy Points
- Jayden Daniels – 28.6 Fantasy Points
- Bucky Irving – 27.5 Fantasy Points
- Bijan Robinson – 25.5 Fantasy Points
- Adam Thielen – 23.9 Fantasy Points
- DJ Moore – 23.7 Fantasy Points
- Josh Jacobs – 21.7 Fantasy Points
- Trey McBride – 21.6 Fantasy Points
- Jonnu Smith – 21.3 Fantasy Points
- Ladd McConkey – 20.7 Fantasy Points
- Chase Brown – 19 Fantasy Points
- Brian Thomas Jr. – 18.7 Fantasy Points
- Davante Adams – 17.3 Fantasy Points
- Jonathan Taylor – 17.3 Fantasy Points
- George Pickens – 16.4 Fantasy Points
- Courtland Sutton – 16.2 Fantasy Points
- Hunter Henry – 14.5 Fantasy Points
- Tyrone Tracy – 14.5 Fantasy Points
This is the final week in most leagues before the Fantasy Football Playoffs start. So winning is vital to many managers. Keep in mind the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, and Commanders are all on a BYE. This article series aligns to my core intention since creating content – “To help YOU Play 2 Win”. Reading this series has given readers an edge this season, and will give you one in Week 14. Let’s get it
2024 Fantasy Football: Week 14 Matchup Winners
Packers vs. Lions (Thursday Night Football)
Back in Week 9, Jayden Reed caught five passes for 113 yards against the Lions. In Week 14, Reed gets an opportunity to repeat a big day against a Lions defense allowing the eighth most passing yards per game and the sixth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers. Reed is coming off of a productive Week 13 after two down games, where he caught three of his six targets for 24 yards and two touchdowns as well as rushed for another 23 yards. That was some extremely high-efficiency last week, but six targets is still a positive sign forward after combining for just five the two weeks prior. Reed has finished four weeks with over 16 Fantasy Points, produced over 110 receiving yards three times, and totaled seven touchdowns so far this season.
In the first Lions vs Packers matchup, Detroit found success running the ball with David Montgomery rushing 17 times for 73 yards and Jahmyr Gibbs rushing 11 times for 65 yards and a touchdown. Monty caught three passes for 23 that week and Gibbs caught one for 11 yards. 20 to 12 touch split in Monty’s favor over Gibbs. Last week, Montgomery rushed 21 times for 88 yards and caught three passes for another 36 while Gibbs rushed nine times for 87 yards and caught two passes for another 17. 24 touches to 11 in favor of Monty. While Gibbs can perform at an extremely efficient level, I like Montgomery’s volume ceiling. The combination of performing well the first matchup against the Packers along with a productive day on 24 touches last week brings confidence in Montgomery this week. Monty has finished eight weeks with 15+ Fantasy Points and three weeks over 21 Fantasy Points.
Jets vs. Dolphins
Week 13 was a disappointing Fantasy result for Breece Hall, who came into the game nursing a knee injury and finished with a season-low 12 touches. Hall still managed 60 yards on the ground rushing but also finished his first game this season without a catch. Hall does not currently have an injury designation for Week 14, so the hope is that he is healthier and ready for a bounce-back. The Dolphins are a much better matchup on the ground than through the air and allow the 11th-most Fantasy PPG to running backs. Hall has finished five straight weeks with 4.9 yards per carry or better, so if he can stay efficient with more volume this week he can bounce-back for Fantasy. Hall has also finished five weeks with five or more receptions, so we hope that changes back to the norm as well in Week 14.
Tyreek Hill has been extremely disappointing this year for Fantasy Football as a whole, but has been trending in the right direction. In Week 11 Cheetah caught seven of his eight targets for 61 yards which was 19.1 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 13 Hill caught six of his nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown for 20.3 Fantasy Points. 83 receiving yards last week was the highest since Week 1, nine targets was the highest since Week 8, and 20.3 Fantasy Points was the highest since Week 1. Hill has scored three receiving touchdowns across the last four weeks, and the encouraging signs for Week 13 hopefully foreshadow some Fantasy consistency to come.
Falcons vs. Vikings
Year three has finally been the breakout year for former first-round selection Drake London, and those of us who never gave up feel solid right now. London has never finished a season with 1,000 receiving yards and has only averaged 10-ish Fantasy PPG his opening two seasons but currently has 70 receptions (three away from beating his career-high) for 796 receiving yards (career-high is 905) with six touchdowns (career-high) resulting in 15.6 Fantasy PPG (#13) through 12 games. London’s 105 targets rank fifth for the position, and he has produced plenty of Fantasy impactful weeks with seven games over that 15.6 average. London has scored 17-ish Fantasy Points in two of his three last games, and most encouraging is the season-high 16 targets he earned in Week 13. London now faces a Vikings defense that allows the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers as well as the fifth-most passing yards per game this season.
Sam Darnold ranks 10th in passing yards (2,952), #5 in yards per attempt (8.3), #4 in passing touchdowns (23), and #10 in Fantasy PPG (18.1) so far this season through 12 games. Darnold is pacing himself to have, by far, the best season of his career after being drafted third-overall back in 2018. Darnold has surpassed his Fantasy average in 4/5 of his last games played with scores of 21 (Week 9), 23.6 (Week 11), 21.1 (Week 12), and 19.6 (Week 13) Fantasy Points in recent games. Darnold has tossed a pair of touchdowns without any turnovers for three straight games, showing some solid consistency there. Darnold will face a Falcons defense in Week 14 that allows the seventh-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the 11th-most passing yards per game this season.
Saints vs. Giants
Following the Week 12 BYE, Alvin Kamara rushed 23 times for 112 yards in Week 13. Back in Week 9 Kamara rushed 29 times for 155 yards and back in Week 2 Kamara rushed 20 times for 115 yards. Those are some examples of rushing upside for a running back mostly known for receiving upside. Kamara has finished eight weeks with five or more receptions along with four weeks of over 50 receiving yards. Kamara’s 19.6 Fantasy PPG ranks third, which is a product to the previous examples of dual-threat upside in combination. Kamara will now face a Giants defense in Week 14 allowing the eighth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has seen his workload decrease the last two weeks, which is likely tied to his fumbling issue during key moments in some of the Giants’ recent weeks. Tracy earned 13 touches in Week 12, and then 11 in Week 13. We cannot ignore the positive we have seen this season though from the rookie, especially when Tracy has such a positive matchup in Week 13 against a Saints defense allowing the fifth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Some positives this season include 129 rushing yards in Week 5, six receptions for 57 yards in Week 6, 145 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 8, 103 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, and then another rushing touchdown in Week 13. Tracy has finished five weeks with 14+ Fantasy Points, two weeks over 22 Fantasy Points, and could be in line for another solid Fantasy week if his volume can increase in Week 14’s solid matchup.
Panthers vs. Eagles
The Eagles are not a great matchup by any means, but I did want to plug the Adam Thielen hit from last week’s article. A lot of people forgot about the huge season Thielen had last year in Carolinas with a rookie Bryce Young, and although 2024 has been a down year for Thielen due to injury we saw that connection reignite last week with Thielen catching eight of his 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown for 23.9 Fantasy Points. Thielen had another touchdown called back that was controversial as well. This connection could result in more FLEX weeks moving forward if Young continues to look the part.
Saquon Barkley’s 1,499 rushing yards leads the NFL and is already his career-best total through just 12 games in his first season as an Eagle. Barkley’s 13 total touchdowns is just two shy of his rookie season career-best 15. 23.8 Fantasy PPG leads the position and is 0.2 away from Barkley’s career-best 24 which is also from his rookie season. Barkley has dominated Fantasy Football with weeks of 33.2 (Week 1), 33.6 (Week 3), 32.9 (Week 9), 33.8 (Week 11), and 46.2 (Week 12) Fantasy Points. Barkley now faces a Panthers defense allowing the most Fantasy PPG to running backs and also the most rushing yards per game. A scary week to have to face Barkley in Fantasy Football.
Browns vs. Steelers
In the first matchup between the Browns and Steelers in Week 12, Jerry Jeudy caught all six targets for a team-leading 85 yards. The week prior, Jeudy caught six of 11 targets for 142 receiving yards and a touchdown for 26.2 Fantasy Points. The massive Fantasy explosion happened in Week 13, with Jeudy catching nine of his 13 targets for 235 receiving yards and a touchdown for 40.5 Fantasy Points. Across the last four weeks of football, Jeudy has been an extremely steady producer with Jameis Winston who has fed him over 10 targets in three of those games during this span which has resulted in upsides with touchdowns and yardage. Jeudy screams FLEX play for the rest of season with Winston at quarterback, and after what he did last week it is hard to really care about what the matchup actually is. Recent performances on top of success already against the Steelers should bring confidence for Jeudy in Week 14.
Although George Pickens did not do much in the first Steelers vs. Browns matchup, this should not discourage you from keeping him in your lineups. Since Russell Wilson took over as the quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 7, Pickens has averaged 7.67 targets, 4.83 receptions, 81.17 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 16.02 Fantasy Points. The yardage upside and scoring for Pickens is there with Wilson and with the Browns allowing the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the 12th-most passing yards per game this is a matchup Pickens can break some big plays off in. Pickens ranks third in deep targets (25), third in air yards (1,214), and is #12 in yards per route run (2.47) which further emphasizes upside opportunity paired with efficiency.
Raiders vs. Buccaneers
Jakobi Meyers always feels like a guy who has been underappreciated through time. Just last week Meyers caught six of his 11 targets for 97 yards which meant 15.7 Fantasy Points. The game prior, Meyers caught 10 of his 15 targets for 121 receiving yards which was 22.1 Fantasy Points. Solid yardage production for two weeks in a row on 26 targets should bring confidence to Fantasy managers to FLEX Meyers, especially against a Buccaneers defense allowing the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the third-most passing yards per game this season. Meyers has scored over 15 Fantasy Points in 5/10 appearances this season, over 17 Fantasy Points in 4/10, and over 21 Fantasy Points twice.
Cade Otton had a hot streak from Weeks 7-9 where he scored 18, 29.1, and then 21.7 Fantasy Points and looked the part as a well-targeted and productive tight end. Since that streak though, Otton has scored under nine Fantasy Points for three straight games. Mike Evans is back in the lineup, and this means a shift from who is the focal piece through the air. I do not think all hope is lost though. Although the last three weeks have been poor for Otton, he still has earned eight and seven targets in two of those weeks which is encouraging that he is still well involved in the passing game. The Raiders currently allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to tight ends, which should bring some optimism for a bounce-back game for a tight end we have seen major production out of multiple times this season.
Jaguars vs. Titans
With the Jaguars allowing the most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and also the most passing yards per game this season, brings the potential for Will Levis to be a streaming quarterback this week. Across Weeks 10-13 Levis has been the QB15 in total Fantasy scoring and has averaged 17.3 points. During this four-game span Levis has thrown the 11th most passing yards (960) and is tied for eighth in passing touchdowns (seven). Levis is slowly but surely looking the part, and if there was ever a game to have confidence in playing him it would be this Jags matchup in Week 14.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
In the first Seahawks vs. Cardinals matchup in Week 12, Jaxon Smith-Njigba led Seattle through the air catching six of his seven targets for 77 yards and a score which meant 19.7 Fantasy Points. Across Weeks 9-13, JSN has been a steady producer for Fantasy Football and extremely productive through the air for a “slot guy”. JSN has produced 180, 110, 77, and 74 yards during this span with three total touchdowns for 37, 21.8, 19.7, and 11.9 Fantasy Points. Having already found success within this matchup, on top of other recent performances, should keep your confidence high in JSN for Week 14.
Back in Week 12 against the Seahawks, Trey McBride caught 12 of his 15 targets for 133 receiving yards which was a season-high 25.3 Fantasy Points. McBride has an opportunity to repeat a major performance against Seattle, and just last week he continued his Fantasy dominance by catching all 12 targets for 96 yards which was 21.6 Fantasy Points. McBride back in Week 8 caught nine of 11 targets for 124 yards which was 21.4 Fantasy Points. The point here is that McBride has had a series of major productive weeks, I am talking weeks that would be productive for an elite wide receiver, and now has an opportunity to stay hot against a team he has already toasted this year.
Bills vs. Rams
James Cook has been trending up in his last two games played with 19.7/19 Fantasy Point outings. Cook scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in Week 11 with five receptions for an added PPR boost then rushed 14 times for 107 yards and another touchdown in Week 13. While Cook has had a wide range of rushing yard totals this season (five weeks under 45 yards and four weeks of 80+ yards), he has been a steady touchdown scorer with 11 total with his legs (one receiving as well). The Rams allow the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season which should bring some confidence in Cook staying hot in Week 14.
Kyren Williams is coming off of a very encouraging week with 104 yards on the ground, which is his season-best and the second time he has produced over 100 yards rushing this year. Kyren has scored in back-to-back games after a dry spell, and currently has 12 total touchdowns this season so we know he can find the end zone. 18.3 Fantasy Points last week marks the fifth time this year he has scored 18+, and Williams’ 16.6 Fantasy PPG ranks 11th for the position. The Bills are a solid matchup to stay productive with them allowing the third-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season so far.
Bears vs. 49ers
As of Wednesday D’Andre Swift popped up on the injury report due to not practicing because of some sort of quadriceps injury. Swift was amongst DJ Moore and Keenan Allen for key players who were missing from practice. I feel like this is more of a precautionary move by the Bears over anything heading into this 49ers matchup. Swift has cooled off the last two weeks due to game script but has had plenty of very impactful Fantasy weeks leading up to those two games. Swift has finished weeks with 29.5 (Week 4), 20 (Week 5), 21.9 (Week 6), 18.9 (Week 8), 14.2 (Week 9), and 16.4 (Week 11) Fantasy Points as a key part of this Bears offense. At times Swift felt like THE key part of this Bears offense. Swift has finished three weeks with over 90 rushing yards, four weeks with four or more catches, and has scored five rushing touchdowns this season. The 49ers allow the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season, which could mean a solid week for the Bears to keep this game tight as they have to solid opponents the last three weeks.
Both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are expected to land on the IR, which means rookie Isaac Guerendo will take on the lead-back role for the 49ers. Back in Week 6 Guerendo rushed 10 times for 99 yards. He then rushed 14 times for 85 yards and a score in Week 8, and then scored another rushing touchdown just last week. We have seen flashes of rushing efficiency out of the rookie, and with an expected full workload in Week 14 Guerendo could find success against a Bears defense allowing the 10th-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the eighth-most rushing yards per game this season.
Chargers vs. Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)
Justin Herbert is another bounce-back candidate for Week 14, and I would expect him to sling it this week with Patrick Mahomes being on the other side of the ball and the Chargers running game taking a hit with JK Dobbins on the IR. Herbert started the season slow, but looking specifically after the BYE at Weeks 6-12 Herbert ranked second in passing yards and sixth in total Fantasy Points which was an average of 19.1 per game. During this span, Herbert also threw eight touchdowns, rushed for two touchdowns, and had no interceptions. So with all of that being said – there is a clear upside attached to Herbert still for Fantasy Football, and the Chiefs allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks along with the 10th most passing yards per game this season.
Xavier Worthy has produced 16.8 (Week 11) then 10.4 (Week 13) Fantasy Points in two of his last three games. Five, six, then seven targets across this span feels like a positive trend and Worthy has totaled 61, 46, and 54 receiving yards with one score in the last three games. The big-play upside is evident through the range of 10.8-15.3 yards per reception totals for the last four straight games. I am not sure we can completely trust Worthy, but if this Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup turns into a high passing outing then the dart throw for FLEX upside can be there.
Bengals vs. Cowboys
Chase Brown has been an extremely consistent Fantasy producer for the last four straight games played as one of the best running backs to roster for Fantasy Football during that span. Brown has scored 26.7, 22.4, 19.3, and then 19 Fantasy Points in the last four with a game of 120 rushing yards (Week 9), three games of five or more catches, and four touchdowns scored during this span. The Bengals have made Brown their clear feature back, evident through him playing 80% or more of the snaps for four straight games, and he is truly running away with this job right now. The Cowboys allow the fourth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the second-most rushing yards per game this season which makes Week 14 a great matchup for Brown to stay hot for Fantasy Football.
CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury that can impact his Week 14, the Bengals allow the 11th-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the sixth-most passing yards per game this season, and Brandin Cooks just led the Cowboys in targets in Week 13 upon return from injury with a touchdown scored. The combination of these factors could mean taking a shot on Brandin Cooks in your FLEX spot this week for Fantasy Football. Cooks is risky due to him producing 40 or fewer yards in all five of his appearances with four of them being under 20 yards, but volume is volume at the end of the day and he has a history of production under his belt.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!