The Boston Celtics were just crowned the 2023-2024 NBA Champions, and in just a few short days, the 2024 NBA Draft is going down. There’s nothing like the NBA. Whether it’s actual game action, social media gossip, or shocking transactions, there’s always something going on for the fans of this league to talk about.
Front offices have been evaluating talent, conducting interviews, and crunching numbers for months. And with the conclusion of last night’s first round of the 2024 NBA Draft, it’s time for the NBA Fantasy GMs of the world to assess the damage, and start strategizing for the upcoming season. In this article, we’ll break down which first-rounders will have a fantasy impact this season, and a few you should avoid.
2024 NBA Draft Reaction – Fantasy Impact
1. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks, SF – Fantasy BUST
This is an NBA Fantasy article. It’s not an evaluation of talent or a projection of Risacher’s future career. I think this is a fine pick for the Hawks, and it’s hard to go wrong with a 6’9″ shutdown wing defender, who can guard every position on the court. Those kinds of players don’t grow on trees. However, in fantasy basketball, the counting stats are what wins matchups. I look at this roster, and I see Trae Young (31% usage rate), Dejounte Murray (27% usage rate), Jalen Johnson (19% usage rate, averaged 16/9 last season), and Clint Capela who will remain the pick-and-roll/dunker spot target. That leaves Risacher to affect the game primarily through wing defense, fastbreaks, open threes, and scoring opportunities through injury. I didn’t even mention the competition he’s going to have with Bogdanovic and Hunter for wing minutes (now I have).
Risacher averaged 10/4 with his Pro Team in France, on 22 mpg, and 35% from three. He was taken number one due to how he can affect winning in real life, at the age of 19. The Hawks hope by the time he’s 24, he’ll be an All-Star. I think that’s a fine bet. But at 19, you shouldn’t expect much from him from a fantasy perspective.
2. Alexandre Sarr, Washington Wizards, C – Fantasy Sleeper
Much like Risacher, the 19-year-old Frenchman played sparingly (19 MPG) on his French Pro Team, but showed a unique skillset, with a frame that you can’t teach. The 7’1″ Center moves like a guard and averaged 10 points, 4 boards, and 2 stocks (steals + blocks). The difference between Sarr and Risacher is the teams that they are on. The Wizards are completely aimless. They traded for Jordan Poole with the expectation he could be a centerpiece for the future, only to find that he’s best used as a sixth man. Kyle Kuzma is the best player on the team but is frequently trade bait (despite expressing his desire to stay in DC). Deni Avdija is the Wizards’ best young player, averaging 15/8 (while showcasing his upside with a 41-point performance vs. New Orleans last year). How do the Wizards reward their best young player? They ship him to Portland!
The Wizards don’t have much competition in their starting center depth chart. Just Marvin Bagley III, a former lottery pick, who has shown talent but has been cast away. Sarr has a clear path to 30+ minutes per game. I expect him to capitalize on it. Per 36 minutes, Sarr averages 20 points and 9 boards, with 4 stocks. That’s elite production from a rookie. From anybody, really. The only hindrance would be if the Wizards manage his minutes. Teams have been doing that with 7-footers these days. But his slight frame is likely to lend itself to more Porzingis/Holmgren comparisons, than Boban Marjonovic. I’ll be buying Alexandre Sarr stock.
3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets, G – Fantasy BUST
There will be weeks where you can pick up Reed Sheppard on the waiver wire, and he’ll help you win a matchup in categories leagues, simply because he’s an elite three-point shooter. And I mean elite. He shot a whopping 52% from three, on four+ threes per game. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen production like that from a college shooter. But this isn’t college anymore. It’s the NBA. He’s going to have to guard other NBA players, and quite frankly, I don’t like his chances. He’s only 6’3″ (point guards are 6’6″ these days) and he’s not particularly fast. He can jump out of the gym, but that’s not going to help him stay in front of the lightning-quick guards he’s going to be required to lock down.
I watched the Rockets draft Cam Whitmore last season in the late first, as he fell in the draft. I was so excited to see what became of him last season, and he spent much of it in the G-League, and then on the NBA bench until he finally got some real minutes late in the season. I’m not saying Sheppard isn’t going to play. He will. There’s a big difference between getting drafted 3rd and 20th. My point is that the Rockets have shown they have no problem easing rookies into the league. I think that’ll be Reed Sheppard’s fate. He’ll get some minutes. Hit some threes. Hit a few dunks (42″+ vertical leap). But Houston’s coach, Ime Udoka, is known for defense. You have to lock someone down to play for him. Sheppard isn’t there yet.
4. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs, G – Fantasy Sleeper
I absolutely love this pick from the Spurs. They’ve been a pretty aimless franchise since Kawhi left, but after drafting Victor Wenbanyama last year, and watching him dominate, they finally have a player to build around again. Their next move is to draft an incredible wing defender who can guard one through four. He’s 6’6″, and averaged 11/5/3 on a championship UCONN team that sacrificed individual stats for team success. He didn’t even take 10 shots per game. On this Spurs team, he’ll be able to get shots up, and he’ll get plenty of minutes as the best wing defender on the team.
His three-point shooting leaves plenty to be desired (sub-30% from three), but he’ll get better. Or maybe he won’t. Doesn’t really matter. 30+ minutes per game on a team with Wemby sucking in the defense is a shooter/slashers dream. I expect 12+ shots per game from the rookie, and he’s going to really be useful in the steals/blocks categories. You’ll be able to grab him late in drafts, and probably on the waiver wire early in the season.
5. Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons, SF – Fantasy BUST
At 6’7″, the explosive wing is a prolific scorer. He averaged 19/7/3 for the G-League Ignite this past season. But… he took 16 shots per game and shot under 25% from three on the year. He’s incredibly streaky. That’s fine if he were the #2 overall for the Wizards, who don’t really have anybody that would take shots away from him, and he’d be able to find his game over time. However, while the Pistons aren’t a good team, they have a lot of talent. High usage talent. Cade Cunningham takes 19 shots per game, with a 31% usage rate. Jaden Ivey is another 13 shots per game, with a 25% usage rate. There’s Ausar Thompson who came into his own late, Jalen Duren, Wisemen, Metu, Stewart, etc. I don’t know when Holland is going to get his shots, but if it’s from three, it’s not going in. When he misses, he won’t be getting the ball back. Simply as that. Unless there is a directive from the Pistons front office that Holland is to start, and get x shots per game, I don’t see many counting stats from Holland this season, unless the Pistons trade away some pieces.
7. Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers, C – Fantasy Sleeper
Love. Love. Love. The 7-footer averaged 13 and 7, with 3 stocks in 22 minutes for the National Champion Huskies last season. What I love most about Clingan is that he can get you counting stats by just existing. He’s a terrific rim protector, so you can count on stocks no matter how many minutes he gets on Portland. But if he gets the starting minutes that I anticipate he will get (sorry Duop Reath), the Trail Blazers will have a legit twin towers between him and Ayton. Further, he’ll be a double-double machine with 28+ minutes per game. Clingan has the ability to provide excellent Center depth to your fantasy roster, with a late-round draft pick.
Also…quiet as kept…word on the street is that Clingan has added a three-pointer to his game. Everybody says that. It rarely shows itself in games. But if he’s been doing that in workouts and the Blazers were intrigued enough to take him, despite already having DeAndre Ayton, then I’m inclined to believe the hype.
8. Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves, G – Fantasy BUST
The NBA media world is in love with this pick for the Wolves. I think it’s better in theory than in practice. When Dillingham got to Kentucky, the expectation was he was going to be one of the best scorers to grace the court in that program’s history. That’s saying a lot. We’re talking about Kentucky. A blue blood. While he was very nearly a 50/40/90 type of scorer (free throws were at 80%), he had the tendency to just disappear. He only averaged 15 PPG as their best player and possibly the most dynamic scorer in the draft. Perhaps it’s because he’s more of a pro scorer, than a fit in a college system. Gilbert Arenas talks about this a lot, and I tend to agree with the thought. However, if you only score 15 PPG with the ball in your hands constantly, what are you going to do when you’re off ball, and Anthony Edwards and KAT take priority over you getting shots up?
When I see Rob Dillingham, I see Bones Hyland. A terrific scorer who isn’t getting the playing time that fans of his would like to see. I hope I’m wrong because Dillingham at his best is a joy to watch. I’d be singing a different tune if he went to Spurs like he was originally drafted, as opposed to the draft day trade to Minnesota.
9. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies, C – Fantasy Sleeper
You’re reading this article as a tool to help you draft. But I can’t lie to you. I don’t know what to make of this. I see two very possible realities. At 7’4″, 300 lbs, Zach Edey moves like 7’4″, 300 lbs. He dominated in college because there were no college kids that could match that size. But in today’s NBA, the game moves so fast that you can play a lumbering big off of the court. On the other hand, Zach Edey was a late bloomer and has changed his game/improved every year that he’s played. Why would he stop that improvement now?
I could see him next to Jaren Jackson and creating a frontcourt that is near impossible to score on. I could see him stuck behind Steven Adams on the depth chart because Ja Morant prefers Adams’ fluidity in the pick-and-roll. I’ve heard Edey has added a three-point shot to his game. I also don’t want him out on the perimeter. One thing is for sure: if the Grizzlies drafted him at 9, when many thought he’d be a 2nd rounder, then that means they have plans for him. I’m more inclined to take a risk on him than to pass and be sorry that I did. I know I didn’t make much of a case for the man, but he was the National Player of the Year, and many considered him a non-factor in the NBA. That means something. Only time will tell.
17. Dalton Knecht, LA Lakers, SF – Fantasy Sleeper
What an exciting turn of events for an LA Lakers team that is currently in flux. I went into the drafting thinking Knecht had a legitimate shot at going Top 5! He fell to 17. That’s absurd. Currently, it seems that the only reason he fell that low is because GMs prefer the safety of drafting a teenager and having him develop, vs. the expectations that a 23-year-old in the NBA should have on him. Age is a huge point of contention in the NBA, and it’s where a lot of value can be found because GMs don’t have a uniform take across the league. For example, Deni Avdija is younger than Dalton Knecht and was just shipped to Portland for multiple 1st-round picks. Portland is excited to have an up-and-coming wing to develop along with their young core (who will only make $11M in 2028). Washington feels like they just got a couple of 1st round picks for a failed project. Both teams think they are correct.
Dalton Knecht has a grown man’s game and is a bonafide NBA scoring threat. He shot 40% from three and dropped 22 points per game at Tennessee in his first/only season playing SEC ball. He’s done the same thing at every level he’s been. He constantly hits shots with a hand in his face, which is what an NBA bucket is. At 6’6″, he’s long enough to stay on the court defensively, even where there is an athleticism mismatch. And he fills a need for LA. A secondary/tertiary scorer who can get buckets when the defense has collapsed onto AD or LeBron. Austin Reaves filled this need before, but it wasn’t enough. To have Reaves and Knecht…well, that’s what contending teams look like. Shooters. Slashers. Defenders. Length. Depth. The Lakers don’t have the depth part yet, but getting a top five talent at 17 will save them millions in the free agency market. It changes everything for this team. This is my favorite pick of the draft.