The Zurich Classic team event could not have come at a better time! The only true team event on the PGA Tour schedule breaks up Scottie Scheffler’s incredible, and at the same time, frustrating run of dominance. The undebatable World #1 will not worry about picking a partner for TPC Louisiana and instead will head home in anticipation of his first child. Not only will a non-Scheffler victor be refreshing, the team aspect of the tournament adds some unique pressure.
160 golfers are headed to TPC Louisiana, paired up in 80 groups of brothers, best friends, respected acquaintances, and complete randoms. The pairs will play Best Ball on Thursday and Saturday, and Alternate Shot on Friday and Sunday. Historically, winning the Zurich means going low during the Best Ball rounds, but a lot of moving goes on during Alternate Shot. With higher scores imminent, lower scores while playing every other shot are a huge help.
The Course: TPC Louisiana
TPC Louisiana is a very interesting course that gets overlooked because of the formatting change. Strokes gained is wonky with that as well, so a lot of strategy is provoked by thought and reason rather than data insights. Historically, off-the-tee play has not proven to be very important. As long as the teams stay in play, don’t expect many strokes to be gained or lost on the tee. Like most courses, approach play is incredibly important.
Greenside bunkers, a multitude of water hazards, and the occasional fairway tree have been the real teeth of TPC Louisiana. The course is very capable of being torched if these hazards are missed. I fully expect pairs like Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry to shoot in the low 60s on Thursday and Saturday. Any of these pairs could easily piece together 10 birdies and an eagle or two. The added room will help, but the winners will be made in the Alternate Shot round.
Best Bets: Zurich Classic
Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele (FRL & Win +1800)
Let’s be honest. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are Scottie Scheffler this week. Currently sitting at +450 to win the Zurich Classic, I think they could be worth a bet simply on their pedigree. The gap between them and next group is too large to ignore. I’m suggesting a combo bet for First Round Leader and Win at a much juicier 18-1 for a few reasons.
First, the birdies will be absolutely flying on Thursday. Both Cantlay and Schauffele rank in the Top 15 in this field of 160 in Birdie Average. When they won this event in 2022, they shot a 59 on Thursday and 60 on Saturday. Collectively -25 in 2 rounds, both of which were the low rounds of the day. When you have 2 of the Top 5 golfers in the world working together, it’s almost unfair for the rest of the field. These guys are guaranteed to be at least -15 in the Best Ball half of the event.
If Patrick and Xander are going to win this event, they’re going to most likely start out hot. The value you can gain if they go low on Thursday is too good to pass up. If they have the lead after Thursday, there’s a good chance their odds go into the negatives. Why not have an 18-1 ticket on them instead??
Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin (+4000)
The reigning runner-ups are back for vengeance, and this time they’re not going down without a fight. The Canadians are coming into TPC Louisiana in great form. Adam Hadwin has 3 finishes of T6 or better in 2024. Nick Taylor of course won in Phoenix at the Waste Management.
Separated in age by only 5 months, these 2 golfers know each other very well. They’ll be going head to head with the 2 other Canadian beasts on Tour, Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith. Unlike Conners and Pendrith, Hadwin and Taylor both have somewhat well-rounded games. Conners is a ball-striking genius and Pendrith a short-game master, but when they have to play outside their comfort zones in Alternate Shot, they will struggle. We don’t have to worry about that with Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin.
The consistent level of skill will help this pair a lot in the Alternate Shot rounds. Both golfers are also very, very talented at both Approaching the Green and Putting. Expect a lot of birdies during the Best Ball days. At 40-1, you’re getting a very fair price for this grouping. There are realistically only about 10 groups that are strong enough to win, and these pin-seeking Canadians are definitely in that group.
Nico Echavarria/Max Greyserman (+10000)
With that being said, we might as well have a long shot right?? This pair of Nico Echavarria and Max Greyserman stood out to me immediately. Both guys are young, trying to find their footing on the PGA Tour. Other than that, they virtually have nothing in common. So why will this random duo work?
Over the last few months, both Nico’s and Max’s games have really come into form. Other than his random win in Puerto Rico, Nico Echavarria missed most cuts in 2023. He was easily the worst player to win an event. However, here he is in 2024 making 7 of the 12 cuts, including 5 finishes inside the Top 25. Greyserman has made 5 of his last 6 cuts. He’s talented Off the Tee and his approach play is fairly consistent. Together, these two might be able to find some success.
This play is certainly not a full unit play, and had this been a normal tournament with the typical bets, I would be eyeing a placement bet rather than a win bet. But unfortunately, the Zurich Classic does not come with those options, so we must adapt. 100-1 could be down to the single digits if these ballers get going!