2025 Fantasy Baseball Busts at Every Position

A fantasy baseball bust is a player who falls short of the expectations set upon him based on his perceived value and his Average Draft Position (ADP). Usually (but not always) these players are taken earlier in drafts with the hopes of anchoring one’s team to success but ultimately fail due to lack of performance or injuries.

2025 Fantasy Baseball Busts

While it can be tricky to rely on ADP as a means for sleeper designation, it is prudent to understand where, in general, a player will be drafted. After all, if someone drafting likes a player who has not been drafted within the first 50 picks over a large sample size, it would make sense to wait on that player and draft him closer to his ADP.

Utilizing this methodology can come in handy by maximizing one’s value at a cost that is quite minimal. With this in mind our top baseball analysts each selected one player at each position that they see as potential busts headed into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Maybe the biggest takeaway from this is that there are a lot of repeat names on the list. If multiple analysts see a player as a bust, that gets my attention.

Catcher Busts

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

It has been two years since we’ve seen the best version of J.T. Realmuto, as the guy who went 20/20 and hit .276 at the plate. Since then he’s been getting slower to the point of almost not running altogether. Was that the result of a knee injury that required in-season surgery? He will be 34 years old next year, and it might be more than just a simple dose of remaining healthy in 2025 to bring back his past pedigree. If he has stopped running and can only provide 15-20 home runs, there are much better options being drafted after him. – Dave Funnell

Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox

Connor Wong was one of the biggest surprises at the catcher position in 2024. Wong received the majority of playing time for Boston batting a career-best .280 with 13 homers. While Wong is a feel-good story, it is difficult to buy this success being sustainable. Wong posted batted ball data toward the bottom of the league, struggles defensively, and is primed for serious regression. Fantasy managers counting on Wong for 2025 are likely to be extremely disappointed. – Matt Heckman

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

A knee injury in 2024 derailed J.T. Realmuto’s third consecutive 20/15 season. Instead, he finished with 14 dingers and only two steals across 413 PA. The good news is that much of Realmuto’s skills remained unchanged. However, as Realmuto enters his age-34 season, it would be unwise to assume he will bounce back to 2022/2023 levels — especially on the speed front. A 15-20 home run season is valuable, but with speed a question mark, Realmuto is a less appealing option at the position. – Lauren Auerbach

Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

Of the nine catchers that qualified last season, Yainer Diaz’s .299 batting average was the best of the bunch. But he fell short of expectations in his power, with a drop in barrel rate. He also saw his groundball rate, flyball rate, and pull rate all worsen in 2024. This worries me for the season ahead, especially considering that Houston may be losing some stars. – Taylor Tarter

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

The biggest problem here is that JT Realmuto no longer runs. For the last three seasons, Realmuto averaged 17 stolen bases while hitting home runs. That set him apart from his peers, but things have happened to close the gap on both sides of that. After stealing just bases last year, that part of Realmuto’s game is no longer an asset. He did hit 14 home runs in 99 games last year, but his power no longer stands out. There are a lot of young catchers with more prolific power tools and upside, but Realmuto is still the 10th catcher off the board. At around pick 133, it’s only risk you are taking on as Realmuto enters his age 34 season. – Ray Kuhn

David Fry, Cleveland Guardians

First Base Busts

Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees

All good things must come to an end and for Paul Goldschmidt that is a harsh reality he is starting to face as he nears the end of a Hall of Fame career. There’s still some juice to be squeezed with his hit tool, but expectations should be tempered for his power and speed. The perennial 30/ 20 line will likely result in 20/10, putting him in the middle of the pack for first base ranks. – Todd Hedberg

Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres

Luis Arraez is overdrafted every season considering what he provides. I like to call it “empty average.” He really is only worth drafting if your team build lacks batting average, or if you play in points leagues. Occasionally, he adds runs to the mix, though he has finished with fewer than 80 in four of six seasons. He stole nine bags last year, the first time in a season he has stolen more than four. Does he repeat those numbers? I would not bet on it. – Taylor Tarter

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

There’s no denying that Triston Casas brings the power. Despite having a rib injury that shortened his 2024 season, he still managed to pop 13 dingers and post a .222 ISO across 243 PA. However, a strikeout north of 30% and a drop in his already-below-average contact rates don’t give me the warm fuzzies. There’s massive power potential with Casas, but it also comes with risk and an unsteady floor. – Lauren Auerbach

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies

Michael Toglia hits the ball extremely hard. There is no denying his massive power potential, but counting on him for consistent production in 2025 would be a mistake. Toglia has some of the worst contact skills in all of baseball. His whiff rate was just under 35% last year leading to a wRC+ below the league average. Toglia also struggles defensively which could put his everyday playing time in jeopardy. His profile is too risky for the draft slot he is going in making him a player to fade on draft day. – Matt Heckman

Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees

First base is by no means the deepest position out there, but drafting Paul Goldschmidt should not be an option. He was terrible last season, looking lost and slow at the plate for most of the season. While his second-half numbers (.271 batting average and 9 home runs) were much closer than what we were used to seeing from him, the fact remains that he will be 37 years old next season and on the edge of possible retirement. The fantasy floor might be bottoming out, and for where he is being drafted, fantasy owners should wait. – Dave Funnell

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

I need more than 20 home runs from my first baseman. The fact that Spencer Steer calls Cincinnati home makes his lack of home runs a little more troubling. He did drive in 92 runs last year, but he leaves you with a power gap to fill. However, if you have a power-heavy build, Steer’s 25 stolen bases could make you view him differently. He struggled to hit .225 last year although a .260 BABIP and .237 xBA gives him a little more credit. With a barrel rate of just 6.4%, Steer doesn’t do a good job of making loud contact. Both his .403 SLG and .387 xSLG are a little concerning. I’m going to think twice before making him my starting first baseman or taking him off the board around pick 110. – Ray Kuhn

Second Base Busts

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

Looking at Brice Turang’s final line, it’s hard to believe that someone with 50 stolen bases is considered a bust. However, digging deeper, most of that production came in the first half when he looked outstanding. He had a big second-half slump, mind you, which saw him hit .220 after the All-Star Break, and increase his strikeout rate. Which version will we get in 2025? It’s hard to say, but if all he is giving is steals and nothing else, he is hardly worth a top 150 pick. – Dave Funnell

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

Brice Turang swiped 50 bags last season, one of three players to do so, but hit only seven home runs. Turang had a major increase in his BABIP, helping his AVG climb from .218 in 2023 to .254 in 2024. That happened despite his barrel, groundball, pull, and chase rates all worsening. Steamer projects Turang for 10 homers, but nothing in his profile suggests he gets there. It is also unlikely he steals another 50 bases or hits .250 again. His cost has gone up because of last season, but his production in 2025 will make him a bust. – Taylor Tarter

Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres

Never a major power or speed threat, Bogaerts’ excellent hit tool helped him still hold strong fantasy baseball value. However, that has seemingly changed in the last two years since he arrived in San Diego. During that time his batting average cratered from .307 in 2022 to .264 in 2024. Along with the dip in average was a drastic fall in his OBP by 70 points in that time frame. The odds are stacked against Xander to make a major course correction this season. – Todd Hedberg

Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres

How many years will name value continue to push Xander Bogaerts up draft boards? Bogaerts has landed in my bust column each of the past two seasons and finds himself here again for 2025. According to FanGraphs Auction Calculator, Bogaerts finished as the 22nd-best second baseman in fantasy last season. Bogaerts posted his lowest home run total since 2017, his lowest batting average since 2014, and his lowest walk rate since 2015. Before you say: “well, he was injured”, Bogaerts also posted his lowest wRC+ since 2017. Bogaerts is not the fantasy player he once was and has no business being drafted as a top-ten option even at a thin position. – Matt Heckman

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

Brice Turang showed off his wheels last season. He swiped an impressive 50 bases across 155 games, good for third-most league-wide. But despite the impressive feat, Turang doesn’t bring much else to the fantasy table. Additionally, his second-half fade (.564 OPS) and struggles versus lefties bring a fair amount of uncertainty for a top-150 draft pick. The second base position is chock-full of speed throughout the draft; you’re likely better off snagging a cheaper option. – Lauren Auerbach

Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres

There is no area in which Xander Bogaerts currently excels. We’ve already seen the best he has to offer, and there’s no category in which he provides an advantage. In reality, Bogaerts is one of the first 10 second basemen coming off the board based on name recognition. Albeit in 111 games last year, Bogaerts hit just 11 home runs while stealing 13 bases. His .264 batting average doesn’t stand out and he’s never been an especially strong power or speed threat. Bogaerts’ ISO dipped to just .117 last year. Between a 5.1% barrel rate and 33% hard-hit rate, Bogaerts isn’t making much of an impact when the bats meet the ball. – Ray Kuhn

Third Base Busts

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

Junior Caminero is a great prospect. He hits the ball hard and puts up solid numbers in the Minor Leagues. Junior Caminero should not be selected inside the top 10 at the third base position. Caminero’s profile has plenty of holes. His hit tool is suspect as Caminero has below-average contact skills and plate discipline. Caminero is no longer much of a threat to steal bases. The icing on the cake is a ground ball issue that prevents him from consistently tapping into his raw power. The Rays have already proven with Jonathan Aranda and Curtis Mead that playing time at the Major League level needs to be earned. Sure, Caminero is likely going to get an extended leash, but offensive production is far from a guarantee. Liking Caminero in dynasty is one thing, but drafting him as 3B9 is not an option I am considering for 2025. – Matt Heckman

Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins

Royce Lewis notched a career-high 82 games in 2024. Unfortunately, they were a very mediocre 82 games. Lewis slashed .233/.295/.452 with 16 home runs, zero steals, and a 108 wRC+ across 325 PA. The biggest concern with Lewis is that he can’t shake the injury bug, spending a combined 341 days on the IL since 2022. He’s also stopped running, which puts another dent in his fantasy value. Sure, 2025 could be the year that Lewis stays healthy. But I’m happy to let someone else spend a top-100 draft pick on a Lewis lottery ticket this season. – Lauren Auerbach

Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins

There really isn’t much to say about Willi Castro here. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally well offensively except provide multi-positional eligibility. Other than that, he’s a mid-teens player for both power and speed and provides a batting average that hovers around the .250 mark. His cost isn’t overly expensive, but at that point in the draft, it might be best to invest in someone with upside instead of the low ceiling value in Castro. – Dave Funnell

Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins

Royce Lewis simply should not be one of the top 10 third basemen drafted considering his history. He has never played in more than 82 games in the bigs, or surpassed more than 325 plate appearances. If you could guarantee that Lewis would play in even 140 games, I would draft him at his ADP. The problem is that he consistently struggles to stay healthy and chances are he will not live up to his current draft position. – Taylor Tarter

Alex Bregman, Free Agent

Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

The thought process is that Makiel Garcia is likely being drafted as a second baseman, but he’s slated to play third base this season. Garcia is also eligible there and he’s the 17th third baseman off the board at around pick 210. Garcia did steal 37 bases last year, but he’s a one-dimensional player, and that gives me cause for concern. He hit just .231 last year with only seven home runs and 58 RBI. That leaves you below average in three of the five categories as he did steal 84 runs. Should something happen and Garcia has a slight reduction to his stolen bases, things can really go sideways. A 3.7% barrel rate isn’t kind to the expectation that we see an improvement from Garcia at the plate. – Ray Kuhn

Shortstop Busts

Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels

This is a conditional placement for Neto, which will be addressed soon. First, Neto entered the offseason after finishing with one of the quietest 20/20 seasons in quite a while, finishing with 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The underlying numbers don’t suggest anything special, as his hard hit rate, barrel rate, and bat speed were all pedestrian-like. His ground ball rate was high (45.2%), making his line drive rate (18.7%) significantly lower than the average in all of baseball. His cost in drafts seems to be based on what he’s done and not what he could do, and as such, there isn’t much value to be had here. The additional problem is that he has already had off-season shoulder surgery, and the Angels announced that he will miss part of the season. The condition mentioned above is that we don’t necessarily know the type of injury and the extent of his recovery time, making a pick of Neto quite dangerous in that he could miss multiple weeks or months. Be careful here, and look elsewhere at baseball’s deepest position. – Dave Funnell

Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays

After a monster season in 2021, Bo Bichette’s performance has dropped off a cliff. In each year from 2021-2024, his home runs, RBI, and runs all decreased. His steals decreased in each season from 2021-2023. And in half a season last year, he only tallied four homers and five steals, with a .223 AVG. As the 15th shortstop off the board in drafts this season, that might be too early considering his trends over the last few years. – Taylor Tarter

Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants

Drafting Tyler Fitzgerald does not require high draft capital. However, even as SS23, he is still one of the easiest players to fade. His Major League career got off to a fast start but he slashed .230/.281/.311 over his final 146 plate appearances. That slash came with a strikeout rate of over 36% and an unsustainable BABIP of .366. Fitzgerald does not have the hit tool to handle Major League pitching and his batted ball data does not suggest he is a prolific power hitter. The Giants already added a middle infielder in Willy Adames making playing time even more crowded. Fitzgerald is unlikely to retain a starting role throughout the season and should not be a target in fantasy baseball drafts. – Matt Heckman

Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros

Sometimes an average player is propped up by an above-average supporting cast. This has been the case for Jeremy Pena in his time with the Astros, producing his best outcomes when his all-star supporting cast is fully healthy. Now, with Tucker and Bregman gone, it’s a seemingly sink-or-swim season for him in 2025. – Todd Hedberg

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies

Ezequiel Tovar came out swinging in 2024, slugging a career-best 26 home runs across 695 PA. He paired that with six steals and a .269 batting average, finishing as a top-10 shortstop. However, there are cracks in Tovar’s profile that are concerning. He has a poor plate approach, and his 44.8% chase rate ranked second-worst among all qualified batters. Additionally, his expected stats indicate regression is coming in the power and batting average departments. Tovar has a shaky floor and doesn’t run a ton, making him a risky option on draft day. – Lauren Auerbach

Xavier Edwards, Miami Marlins

Xavier Edwards is fast. We know that he can run and steal bases with ease. But can he reach first base often enough to do that? And will he hit enough to stay in the lineup? While the Marlins are in the midst of a rebuild, they’re still trying to build a team for the future. In 70 games last year, Edwards hit just one home run and had a barrel rate of only 1.8%. The good news is that Edwards puts the ball in play at an elite level, 84.7%, but he really relies on his speed to reach base. That helps to explain his .328 batting average via a .398 BABIP. Edwards’ .254 xBA paints things in a different light. A double-digit walk rate helps, but relying on Edwards before pick 200 for a large chunk of your stolen bases is a risky proposition. – Ray Kuhn

Outfield Busts

Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees

In many ways, Chisholm Jr. is the ultimate fantasy mirage. His rare ability to deliver power and speed from the middle infield seems a mirage in the vast desert of empty batting average options. Yet, we only see these results in small stints before vanishing due to injuries. Yet, every year he is drafted in the top five rounds based on his potential. Buyer beware as another injury-plagued season is a likely outcome. – Todd Hedberg

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll’s early struggles last season appeared to be due to a shoulder issue. Even still, he only hit .250 or better in two months last season. Part of his issue may have been due to injury, and some due to bad luck – his BABIP dipped last season – but he lost 40 points of OBP and struck out more than in 2023. He has a top-15 overall ADP and may struggle to produce enough to earn that value. – Taylor Tarter

Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

There are a lot of red flags here with Ronald Acuna Jr, the last of which is the biggest one of them all. Acuna suffered his second ACL injury last year, this time on the other leg, and missed most of the 2024 season. It was announced right after the season that he is expected to miss some time in 2025 and likely won’t be ready for Opening Day. His injury timeline casts a wide net, as anywhere between nine and twelve months is expected. The beginning of that timeline puts him at around the time when the team reports, but Acuna has a different mindset this time around. When he first injured himself, he said that he felt rushed to return and not quite himself. This notion is supported by the fact that his first season back last time was arguably his worst offensive output. He has added that he will listen to his body this time and take care of it more, suggesting that more time off would be needed. From those quotes and mindset, it would appear that he will miss some time to begin the year. Whether that be one month or more, he likely won’t give fantasy owners a full season of work, and that’s assuming there are no setbacks. His second-round ADP is too high of a price to pay for someone who may not be back until May and may do so trepidatiously. – Dave Funnell

Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners

Randy Arozarena has been outperforming his peripherals for years now. However, a midseason trade to Seattle resulted in his fantasy-relevant offensive numbers taking a massive dip. Arozarena struggles with barrel control, does not make contact at an above-average rate, and has seen his sprint speed continue declining as he has aged. Seattle is a much more difficult ballpark for right-handed power hitters than Tampa Bay is meaning the suppressed home run rate should be expected to continue. Also, some nonanalytical analysis: Arozarena is a high-energy player. Tampa is sunny and bright, and Florida has a positive outlook. Seattle is known for rain and dreariness. Something about the switch just does not sit right with me. For both analytical and “vibes” purposes, I am out on Arozarena in 2025. – Matt Heckman

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers

Adolis Garcia is coming off a down year, and how much he can bounce back in 2025 is unclear. Garcia’s batting average has slid for three consecutive seasons, and his .176 ISO last year is nearly a 100-point drop from 2023. Further, his already-terrible contact rates aren’t likely to turn around anytime soon. Garcia brings pop and some speed to the fantasy table but is being drafted as a back-end OF2. That’s not an investment I want to make, especially with Garcia entering his age-32 season. – Lauren Auerbach

Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners

In each season since 2019, we have seen Randy Arozarena’s batting average decrease. Now he has to play a full season in Seattle in a home park that we’ve seen sabotage hitters’ performances as of late. While still a 20/20 threat, we’ll be lucky if Arozarena hits .240 and his power isn’t exactly a standout tool. In three of the last four years, Arozarena has hit 20 home runs with 23 in the other season. He should get back to 80 RBI to go along with 80 runs scored but you can do better, or find upside, around pick 130. At this point, we have to draft Arozarena for what he is. And that’s an outfielder with an 8.3% barrel rate who strikes out more than 25% of the time. – Ray Kuhn

Starting Pitcher Busts

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale was dominant in 2024. There is no debating he was one of the game’s top pitchers, and at his ceiling is one of fantasy baseball’s top arms. However, something does not sit right with me about drafting a player who is going to turn 36 in March and has an extensive history with injuries inside of the top 40 picks. Since 2018, Sale has pitched in 150+ innings just two times. Yes, we all know the saying “There is no such thing as a safe pitcher”, however, Sale is especially risky. Ignoring his injury history based on one dominant season is a mistake and will come back to hurt fantasy managers at some point in 2025. – Matt Heckman

Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks

In the past park factors didn’t really impact strikeout pitchers. This was the case for Corbin Burnes in his breakout Cy Young season with Milwaukee in 2021. However, we’ve seen an alarming downtrend in his strikeout rate over the last few years from 12.6 K/9 in 2021 to 8.4% last season. His dependence on getting tough outs has shortened his outings and left him far more prone to blow-up outings. He’s still a workhorse but he’s not likely to remain among the elite aces. – Todd Hedberg

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

You can’t plan for injuries. Or some injuries that is. You never know when a player will get hurt, but some are clearly more prone to it than others. The intention is to draft a team of the best players, but also for them to stay on the field and to deliver production at high levels. While we know that Jacob deGrom has talent for days, can we really count on him for a full season? Or even 75% of a season? When I’m drafting someone in the third round, I’d like a little more certainty. The target is certainly there, and if deGrom makes 20 to 25 starts, then a third-round pick might a be bargain depending on how well he does. In the past four seasons, deGrom has combined pitch 196.2 innings. That is the issue. – Ray Kuhn

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Jacob deGrom is incredible. His well-versed career is filled with moments of greatness that may never be replicated. That being said, fantasy owners need to be reminded of just exactly who he is at this point in his career. Entering his age-37 season, deGrom will be attempting to pitch next year after having had his second Tommy John Surgery in 2022 and returning slowly last year. He made his debut late in the season and threw 10.2 innings over three starts, never throwing more than 61 pitches per outing. The hope is that he will take the ball and pitch every fifth game, but early in the offseason, the Rangers did not commit to that. In fact, they said that they would come up with a plan for deGrom based on how he felt and what he wanted to do, leading one to believe that some of those conversations had already happened. Additionally, his ADP is hovering around the Top 40 overall and he could be some team’s first pitcher taken. How many innings are we expecting him to throw? If he were to jump up to 150 innings, that is 140 more than last year and a total he has not tossed since the 2019 season. Expectations seem otherworldly here, and if there was anyone who could do it, it would likely be him. That said, with pitching so deep this year, safer options are available later in drafts. – Dave Funnell

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale is coming off a vintage season. He spun 177.2 frames of elite baseball, earning his first Cy Young Award. Talent-wise, Sale hasn’t skipped a beat with his underlying metrics supporting his stellar 2024. But the injury elephant looms large in the background. The last time Sale eclipsed 150 IP was in 2018. Additionally, back issues sidelined Sale from his final start of the 2024 season and made him unavailable for the Wild Card Series against the Padres. Expecting a repeat year from Sale in 2025 is unwise. And when you mix in his injury risk at age 35, Sale is an arm I’m avoiding at his draft price. – Lauren Auerbach

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jacob DeGrom, Texas Rangers

Thanks to a bevy of injuries, Jacob DeGrom has pitched a total of 197.1 innings since 2021. Even if he gets through next season unscathed, the Rangers would be crazy not to limit his innings. DeGrom will put up some crazy strikeout numbers, as he has consistently since 2017, but the likely innings limit will cap his value. Is he worth drafting as the tenth pitcher off the board, when workhorses like Dylan Cease and others are being drafted after him? Not in my book. – Taylor Tarter

Closer Busts

Mason Miller, The Athletics

Miller was nothing short of dominant last year, putting up a 14.4% K/9 ratio. As mentioned with Burnes, the move to a new park in Sacramento shouldn’t impact him much if he holds his stellar 4.9 K:BB rate. That’s where there’s some concern as he finished last season with six earned runs off of 10 hits in 13 innings pitched in September. It could’ve been due to fatigue but with the move to a far less forgiving ballpark in Sacramento, there’s much less room for error for Miller to meet his lofty draft price. – Todd Hedberg

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians

Perhaps if Emmanuel Clase was going a little later in drafts, I’d feel better about it. Clase currently requires a mid-third-round draft choice with an ADP of 35 as the sixth pitcher off the board. Now, over the last four seasons, it’s hard to find a closer more dominant than Clase. He has three straight seasons with at least 42 saves, peaking at 47 in 2024. Clase has logged between 72.1 and 74.1 innings after pitching 69.2 innings in 2021. That doesn’t include the postseason, and Clase showed some signs of his workload catching up to him in the postseason. Last year, Clase had a 0.61 ERA and it’s hard to find fault with his 2.42 xERA. In each of the last two years, Clase’s strikeouts have been down, 7.99 per nine innings last year, and he clearly benefited from a .195 BABIP last season. The postseason aside, batters still have a very hard timing making contact against Clase. My concern is that the workload has caught up to Clase and those struggles will continue into 2025. I also have difficulties with the price on draft day as it’s hard to find anything good from it. – Ray Kuhn

Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays

With the Rays moving outdoors in 2025, Fairbanks’ value takes a hit. Throughout his career, he has posted a 2.50 ERA indoors and a 4.63 ERA outside, making this a scary pick for saves. Additionally, the new ballpark for the Rays is much smaller and identical to Yankee Stadium, and it also has the surroundings of heat and humidity with it all season. This makes him more susceptible to surrendering runs and could make for more blown saves and disastrous outings. – Dave Funnell