Last week, an article went up on Fantrax looking at four hitters who are likely to see a decline in their home run totals from 2024. That article evaluated a few hitters who were very fortunate when it came to the number of barrels they hit that left the yard. In the same way, this research can be used to find hitters who were unlucky. Last year, this article pegged Bryce Harper, MJ Melendez, Eugenio Suarez, Ezequiel Tovar, and Michael Harris II as players who would hit more home runs. All of those hitters saw improvements to their home run totals from 2023 to 2024 except for Michael Harris who would have had he not missed time with injury. Let’s hope for a similar outcome this year!
The Math Behind The Research
I will not go into too much detail about the math since that was already discussed in the previous article and last year. The math behind this research was presented in the articles last year as well as the previous article from last week. The general gist of the math is that a certain percentage of barrels result in a home run on average each season. In 2024, 47.9% of barrels left the yard. That number jumps up to 67.3% when discussing pulled barrels. This article will look at four hitters whose averages in both of those categories were well below the league average. Fantasy managers should expect those home runs per barrel and pulled barrels to even out in 2025.
2025 Home Run Improvers
Ryan Mountcastle – Baltimore Orioles
The last article highlighted two Orioles players as potential regression candidates. Well, let’s stick with the theme of Orioles players but make the case for improvements this time. Ryan Mountcastle has undeniable raw power. His 6’4” frame generates plenty of power as is before even factoring in his quality of contact. Things got off to a great start in 2021 when Mountcastle hit 33 home runs in his rookie season. However, he has now seen his home run total decrease for three straight seasons. The 13 home runs he hit last year marked a new full-season low. With lots of focus surrounding the Orioles’ young talent coming up, Mountcastle has seemed to be the odd man out. This combined with his disappointing 2024 has his fantasy value near an all-time low.
Part of the issue for Mountcastle has been Baltimore’s left field wall. As a right-handed batter, most of Mountcastle’s home runs are hit out to left field. Between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, the Orioles pushed the left field wall back by 30 feet. After hitting 22 home runs at Camden Yards his rookie season, Mountcastle has never topped 11 home runs at home in a season. The good news for Mountcastle, and fantasy managers, is that Baltimore is yet again shifting their left field wall. This time, in favor of right-handed hitters. The left field wall will be moving in starting in 2025. Some areas will see a shift inwards of 20 feet or so while the majority will be between 9 and 13 feet. This shift will significantly improve Mountcastle’s home run output.
Even with the down season in 2024, Mountcastle’s batted ball data still resembles that of a prolific power hitter. His average exit velocity remained up at 90.8 mph. His barrel rate dropped off some but still was better than the league average. Noticeably, Mountcastle decreased his pull rate last season which could have been an attempt to overcome the deep left field wall. Expect this to rebound toward his career numbers in 2025.
The wall is an obvious boost for Mountcastle, and he should also see his luck improve. As mentioned before, Mountcastle decreased his pull rate last year resulting in just eight pulled barrels. However, only three of those barrels left the yard. At 37.5%, this rate should significantly improve in 2025. Even beyond his pulled barrels, Mountcastle’s luck on all barrels was poor. Of his 32 total barrels, only 0 of them left the yard. 31.3% of his barrels going for a home run ranked dead last amongst hitters with 10+ barrels last season. Mountcastle should see his home run totals rebound in 2025. Expecting a home run output in the 20 range is a safe place for fantasy managers to set their expectations.
Oneil Cruz – Pittsburgh Pirates
The biggest thing holding Oneil Cruz back in his first couple of seasons was health. Cruz played in just 96 games total over the course of his first two seasons. Cruz undeniably has some of the best raw athleticism in baseball. His 6’7” frame rivals Elly De La Cruz and his power and speed tools are equally as enticing. In his rookie season, Cruz hit a ball 122.4 mph. When he connects, everybody stops to watch. Cruz connecting is one of the prettiest sounds in baseball.
Everything seemed to click for Cruz last year. He stayed (mostly) healthy, playing a career-high 146 games. As a result, Cruz set career-highs in home runs (21) and stolen bases (22). His hit tool was still inconsistent but he maintained a respectable .259 batting average. The team has already vocalized that Cruz will be their center fielder moving forward. With dual eligibility for the 2025 season, Cruz should be a popular target in drafts. He becomes an even more attractive option when you realize he was actually unlucky last season.
The batted ball data for Cruz has always been off the charts. When Cruz makes contact, odds are it is going to be hit hard. He posted an average exit velocity last season of 95.5 mph. The only two hitters ahead of Cruz in this metric were Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Pretty good company to be a part of. Cruz also has perhaps the highest-end power in all of baseball. He set a max EV of 121.5 mph last season. The average of his 50 hardest-hit balls tied Aaron Judge for the best mark in baseball at 107.2 mph. There should be no surprise that Cruz’s HR/FB% was well above the league average at 17.1%. However, in reality, it should have been even higher.
Cruz consistently barreled balls up in 2024. He finished the season with a total of 57 barrels. Only 20 of those went for a home run. This 35.1% mark ranked toward the bottom of the league. Unlike Mountcastle, Cruz was especially skilled at pulling his barrels. Cruz pulled a barrel 26 times last season good enough for the 16th most in all of baseball. However, Cruz hit just 12 home runs off of his pulled barrels. This is the same number of home runs off of pulled barrels as Kyle Higashioka who only pulled 13 all season.
As was the case entering last season, the key to Cruz’s fantasy value is health. If he can stay on the field, Cruz is going to be a top-tier fantasy asset. After hitting 21 home runs last season, fantasy managers should expect that number to continue growing in 2025. A full-season projection of 25-28 home runs is realistic for next season.
Austin Riley – Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley has been one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball over the past four seasons. If not for injuries limiting Riley to 110 games, he certainly would have cleared 30 home runs for the fourth consecutive season. However, as it stands Riley finished 2024 with just 19 home runs which was actually impressive when you consider how slow of a start Riley got off to. Through his first 229 plate appearances, Riley had just three home runs and was batting just .220. This slow start and the Braves’ underwhelming season seem to have lowered Riley’s fantasy value. Entering 2025, Riley could be one of the biggest draft-day steals.
For starters, Riley completely turned his season around last year. From June 14 forward, Riley hit 16 home runs while slashing .292/.354/.588. His 600 PA pace over that period would have been 40 home runs. He is still just 27 years old and when healthy remains one of the game’s top power hitters.
Where Riley’s bad luck is obvious is in his HR/FB rate from last year. Prior to last year, Riley’s HR/FB% sat at 20.7% for his career. For this number to randomly drop down to 14.3% last year is unexplainable. Riley increased his pull rate from 13.9% in 2023 to 14.9% in 2024. His average exit velocity also increased from 2023 to 2024. He finished last season with 46 barrels. Only 16 of those went for a home run. His pulled barrel rate was the worst in all of baseball. Riley only went yard on four of his 15 pulled barrels. This 26.7% number is over 4% worse than the second-lowest rate (Jordan Westburg).
Riley is in for a big 2025 season He hit 38 home runs in 2022 and 37 home runs in 2023. Expecting anything less than 35 from Riley would be a misevaluation of his talent level. Once you factor in Riley’s home run pace from the back half of last season along with his misfortune on barreled balls, it becomes obvious that Riley is a player to target in 2025.
Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Dodgers
Yes, you read the name correctly. After hitting an incredible 54 home runs in 2024, Shohei Ohtani lands on the list of players we should expect to see more home runs from in 2025. Maybe a better way to put it is that Ohtani did not benefit from any luck en route to his historic 2024 season. Is Ohtani going to hit 54 home runs again? 54 is a hard number to reach in back-to-back seasons, but regression is not a foregone conclusion.
There is no debating Ohtani’s greatness. From a fantasy perspective, he does it all. Ohtani hits for power, hits for average, and steals bases at an incredible clip. There is a reason he won MVP and is the consensus 1.01 pick in every draft. Getting a guy who could potentially lead the league in all five major categories is unbelievable. Now, imagine that Ohtani’s 2024 numbers get even better.
Ohtani’s batted ball data is out of this world. His barrel rate jumped up to 21.4% last season while he also set a new career-high in his max exit velocity. All Ohtani does is hit the ball hard and it should come as no surprise to see his HR/FB% up at 28%. Think about how crazy that is. For every four fly balls Ohtani hits, he is going to hit 1.1 home runs.
The decision to include Ohtani in this article was simply based on the fact the numbers were too compelling to ignore. Last year, Ohtani hit 103 barrels. Only he and Aaron Judge cleared the 100 barrels mark last year. Of his 103 barrels, only 50 of them went for a home run. 48.5% is right around the league average. However, Ohtani’s “bad” luck was obvious when looking at his pulled-barrel home run rate. Ohtani pulled 53 barrels last season. The most in baseball by 12. Only 24 or 45.3% of those barrels went for a home run. 24 is one less than the number of pulled barrel home runs that Brent Rooker hit last year. Ohtani pulled 21 more barrels than Rooker did. This is despite Los Angeles being the sixth most friendly hitter’s park for left-handed batters.
Ohtani is a unicorn. His talent and greatness are among the best we will ever see this generation. The only way to draft him is at first overall. That is not changing. However, those drafting him can do so with confidence knowing that Ohtani should reach the 50 home run mark again in 2025.