We are set to enter Week 3 of the 2024 College Football season, and what a season it has been so far! There have been so many fantastic storylines to follow, so many CFF surprise performers, and, most importantly, so many action-packed games to bet on!
I have not been as successful as usual in all facets of betting on college football so far this year, however, I have been nailing my over/under picks. Here are three more o/u picks with some analysis for you to consider placing on Saturday, September 14.
Current W-L: 4-2 on o/u picks
CFB Bets to Make This Saturday
Alabama vs Wisconsin: o 49.5 (-110)
First and foremost, Alabama will have no problem scoring points in this one. Their offense has been exceptional through the first two games of the season, albeit against two weak opponents. They currently rank 19th in the nation in total offense (518 YPG) and seventh in scoring offense (52.5 PPG).
‘Bama’s offense is led by one of the country’s best quarterbacks, Jalen Milroe, and they are coached by Kalen DeBoer, who has led the team to a 2-0 start in the post-Saban era. It is also worth noting that Bama’s first two games went way over 49.5 points (63 and 68). Wisconsin’s coverage in the secondary is the weakest part of their defense, and I believe that Milroe and his weapons will be able to exploit that weakness, scoring many touchdowns and putting up plenty of points.
On the other side of the spectrum, Wisconsin has s solid offense that is averaging 27.5 points per game this season. On top of that, there is statistical evidence to support that their offense is underperforming. Although they rank 86th in points scored, PFF has their offense ranked as the 37th best so far this season. What that means is they are doing many things well, but it just hasn’t translated to their offense exploding yet. It could definitely happen here against the Crimson Tide.
Oregon vs Oregon State: o 49.5 (-110)
The history of this fantastic rivalry suggests that this game will be a high-scoring one. The annual game between these two teams has gone over 49.5 points 18 of the last 20 times. Although there is no evidence that games played a decade ago will factor into Saturday’s contest, that statistic is still amazing to me.
The reason this number is so low is because the Beavers’ have done an excellent job limiting their opponents so far, only giving up 7.5 points per game. Something to consider, though, is that their first two opponents were very weak teams in Idaho State and San Diego State.
The Ducks have one of the best offenses in the nation, led by one of the Heisman favorites, Dillon Gabriel. So far, they haven’t lived up to expectations, only averaging 30.5 points per game. When would be a better time for that to go up than against their in-state rival?
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh: u 63.5 (-110)
When these two teams played last year, West Virginia won 17-6. 23 Total points were scored. Last season, Pitt and WV combined to score 51.7 points per game last season, 11.8 fewer points than this matchup’s total. On top of that, they allowed a combined 53.5 points per game last year, which is ten points less than what the number is set for on Sunday. Here we are one year later in an early season contest where both teams are still figuring everything out, and we get a total that is set above 60.
According to PFF, West Virginia has the 46th-best offense amongst all FBS teams, and Pittsburgh has the 61st-best. Those statistics don’t suggest that this one will be a high-scoring shootout like the betting line predicts.
The Panthers are led by quarterback Eli Holstein, who has been good through his first two games (638 passing yards, six passing touchdowns). To be honest, he’s the reason why Pitt finds themselves ranked as high as they do. That said, I don’t really trust him to deliver a third straight 300 passing yards and three touchdown game. He has two many weaknesses that the Mountaineers’ defense could (and should) exploit.