There are a couple of ways to talk “sleepers” in fantasy. One I like to use is finding my fantasy hockey sleepers based on league formats. In peripheral-based leagues, this is an even more useful tactic.
If you’re playing a league that uses categories and emphasizes peripheral stats and physical play like shots, hits, blocks and penalty minutes (PIM), don’t sleep on…
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Fantasy Hockey Sleepers for Peripheral-Based Leagues
Evander Kane, LW, San Jose Sharks
Kane is going at an average draft position of 99. I rank him as my #10 left-winger and #45 overall. Skeptics will point out the impact to Kane of losing Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi. Players in leagues based solely on goals and assists will see a mid-50s scorer and tune out. Still, Kane has increased his goals scored four straight years, tying his career-best in goals (30) while one off his career-best in assists (26) in only 75 games.
Despite respectable scoring numbers, Kane’s elite contributions show up in peripherals-based leagues. If anything, expect his 268 shots (#14 in the NHL) to rise. Despite 10 years of NHL mileage on his body, he is only 28 this season. He’s missed between 4 and 45 games each year since the 2012-13 lockout but still puts up elite hits. Last year’s 173 tied a career-high. Only Kane and Alex Ovechkin managed at least 50 points and 170 hits. Oh, and did I mention he led the NHL with 153 PIM? Tom Wilson was the runner-up with a mere 128.
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ottawa Senators
I want to install myself as president of the Brady Tkachuk fan club. I rank him as the #17 LW and #74 overall player compared to an ADP of 145 – and I feel my rank is actually conservative. While the talented sophomore slogs away for what is looking to be an outmatched Senators squad, I’ll be following from afar to see if he can put up stats at the remarkable pace he set in 2018-19. Players in points-only leagues will no doubt be intrigued but may see the 22 goals and 23 assists and think Tkachuk is still a year or two away from being an elite fantasy player. Think again.
Tkachuk threw 173 hits in just 71 games. His 214 shots were 56th in the NHL. It’s important to understand, though, how outstanding that many shots are for a rookie. In the past five years, only nine rookies took more than 200 shots, and all the others played more games than Tkachuk. If you prorated all nine players’ shots for a whole 82 games, only Auston Matthews would have outshot Tkachuk’s rookie pace.
Like Kane (but more so), questions will be asked about the quality of Tkachuk’s linemates. Ottawa traded the three best scorers on their team – Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel – last year. Of the three, only Stone played substantial minutes with Tkachuk. Looking back at the advanced statistics, there is no doubt Stone playing with Tkachuk helped lift the rookie to a better level of hockey play. In terms of box score stats, though, Tkachuk put up 31 points in 51 games before the trade and 14 points in 20 games after the trade – a 15% increase in scoring rate. Yes, other teams will be able to focus their defense on Tkachuk’s line in 2019-20, but with every reason to believe the shots and hits will be there and that an increase in last year’s 16:02 ATOI should come, a higher level of peripheral stats is a reasonable possibility.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Colorado Avalanche
It feels funny to talk about a 75-point scorer as a sleeper, but Landeskog is a 75-point scorer many will be reluctant to draft. Fantrax ADP shows early drafters are picking him 54th. I like him as my 38th overall player, with room to outperform that ranking substantially. Critics will say Landeskog rode the coattails of Nathan MacKinnon’s and Mikko Rantanen’s continued ascents to superstardom. Some players (like me) may also have bitter memories of Landeskog underperforming high expectations in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
The key to Landeskog’s value is his broad base of skills. There is a reasonable case to be made Landeskog will be an above-replacement contributor in goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, PIM, and plus/minus. Putting up something in so many peripheral categories makes Landeskog a fantasy hockey unicorn. There are multiple approaches to drafting in categories-based fantasy. One is to draft elite contributors in one or two categories and combine them with stars who help in different categories, seeking to build a competitive roster through complementary players. Others look for a balanced approach – players who help a little at everything so that if you lose one player to injury, you do not lose the ability to be competitive in a category that was that player’s specialty. A player like Landeskog can help provide a foundation across your offense and bolster every category.
Take last year’s 34 goals, 41 assists, 27 power-play points, a +17 plus/minus, 243 shots, 64 blocks, 120 hits and 51 PIM and dream on what happens if Landeskog stays healthy for 82 games instead of 73. Then take him at a value in the fourth round of a 12-team categories draft where peripheral stats count.
Do you play in a peripherals-based league? Let us know who your fantasy hockey sleepers for the 2019-20 season in the comments below.
Also check out our 2019 Fantasy Hockey Rankings: Goalkeepers | Defensemen | Forwards
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