After going 2-1 last time out, let’s see if we can keep things rolling today. We’ve got a relatively short slate with a slew of postponements so far. We’ll need to attack this six game slate. It feels like it took forever, but the game we’ve loved since we were children is back. It’s baseball season my friends, and with the new rule changes, the game is faster and more action-packed than ever. Limited pickoff attempts and bigger bases should make steals more frequent. A ban on shifts make singles and doubles more prominent, so we’re more likely to see the return of small ball. And the pitch clock has more and more pitchers calling their own games. Every action has a reaction, so we will be sure to take these rule changes into account when we make our player prop selections. Sportsbooks vary, so we’ll set our own lines with what makes sense based on the data, and you can bet accordingly with your favorite sportsbook. Now, without further ado, let’s get into it!
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MLB Player Prop Bets for April 6th
Matt Olson UNDER 0.5 Hits:
Matt Olson has been absolutely raking since moving to Atlanta. He’s been their best/most consistent player, if you ask me. And this is a loaded roster. Tonight he gets a matchup vs. Blake Snell. While Snell had a rough outing last time out, looking at his larger sample size of starts last year, it’s clear Snell is an elite pitcher. Especially against lefties. Lefties hit a .307 wOBA, .093 ISO, and a 26% strikeout rate vs. Snell. Matt Olson is a lefty. Olson is also 0 for 6 all-time vs. Snell, with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. I could see a scenario where he gets on base via a walk, but I think getting a base knock is a bit too tall an order if Snell has his stuff. I’ll take Olson’s UNDER here.
Matt Carpenter UNDER 0.5 Hits:
I’m keeping with today’s theme of taking UNDERs against Matt’s. This UNDER is for similar reasons. While Matt Carpenter had a stellar year last year, he’s off to a bit of a slow start this year with the Padres. Spencer Strider is taking the bump tonight, and he brings his 98+ MPH fastball that he throws 67% of the time vs. lefties (according to RotoGrinders). Lefties hit .240wOBA, .074 ISO, and strikeout 33% of the time vs. Spencer Strider. Carpenter isn’t hot enough to overcome those numbers, neither is his 45% whiff rate vs. fastballs from righties over 95 MPH.
Freddie Freeman OVER 2+ Total Bases:
Merrill Kelly is in for a rude awakening tonight vs. the Dodgers. Every pitcher is really. Kelly struggles most vs. lefties, and the Dodgers have a number of power hitting lefties in their lineup. My favorite of which happens to be Freddie Freeman. The most compelling stats that drive me toward Freeman’s OVER is that Freeman is 6 for 16 with 5 XBH, 1 HR, and 4 BB vs. Kelly all-time. That’s good enough for me to see Freeman getting a couple base hits, or a double/HR in at least 3 at-bats vs. Kelly. If Kelly gets knocked around and comes out of the game early, I wouldn’t be scared of the Arizona bullpen enough that Freeman couldn’t bail our bet out vs. the bullpen. Love Freeman OVER 2 Total Bases tonight.