With only a couple weeks until the 2024 NFL Season, it doesn’t matter whether you still have a draft or two awaiting, or if your roster is already set. Draft boards can still shift, and mistakes can be traded while their value is still pristine. Let’s take a dive into three of 2024’s Most Overrated Players in Fantasy Football.
2024 Most Overrated Fantasy Football Players
Jayden Daniels
Washington Commanders, QB11 consensus vs. My QB20
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is officially a starting NFL quarterback, and all (at least, I am) Commanders fans are excited about it. Washington hasn’t had a QB to be excited about since RG3’s rookie season in 2012. Daniels dazzled in his latest college season as he threw for 40 TDs with almost 4,000 yards passing. He also runs a 4.5 40-yard dash (100th percentile) and has demonstrated his competency with Kliff Kingsbury’s offense in preseason thus far. That said, let’s get serious about his expectations.
I tend to avoid rookies in my fantasy roster construction, as each week is a new learning experience for even the most prolific rookies. Don’t let CJ Stroud’s past year give you rose-colored lenses. While Jayden Daniels is having an excellent preseason, preseason football is not how you judge a player. The defenses aren’t as sophisticated as they will be in season, and the amount of preparation that goes into making sure “player X” doesn’t beat you, is minimal compared to the regular season. Most important starters aren’t even playing more than a series or two in preseason. Rookies tend to struggle, and if a rookie doesn’t struggle, then at the very least, they aren’t consistent every week in their success.
Let’s look at Daniels’ recent history being a rookie (or at least with a new offense): Freshman year at Arizona State in 2012, he only had a 60% completion percentage. Solid for an 18-year-old, but a fraction of the upside that he showed at his peak in college (72%). In 2022, he transferred to LSU and started in a completely new offense and threw for under 3000 yards in 14 games, but only 17 TDs (matching his freshman season production). That year his completion percentage rose to 69%, however, showing his growth as a decision-maker, despite being in a new offense. The following season he won the Heisman, increasing his passing yardage output by 33%, and more than doubling his TDs thrown, all while keeping his interceptions flat. The talent is obviously there, but he’s only going to be a fraction of his potential peak this year. The QB position isn’t like the TE position, where one huge weak can land you inside the top ten ranks by the end of the year. QB fantasy production is consistent among the top-tier QBs. Expecting Daniels to be a QB11 this year is insane to me.
Derrick Henry
Baltimore Ravens, RB8 consensus vs. My RB20
Fantasy owners are expecting Derrick Henry to hit the ground running with his new team. When you look at Henry’s body of work, one thing is certain: Henry is going to score touchdowns…and DURABLY. In six of his past eight seasons, he’s played at least 15 games. On top of that, he’s scored at least 10 total touchdowns in six of his eight seasons. Henry is going to do what he does, as an elite mix of speed and bruising strength. That’s why the Ravens targeted him. I can’t imagine the fear in a defense with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry coming at the 2nd level of an offense with an option play. Absolute chaos. It’s why he currently sits at RB8 consensus.
But the reason I’m pumping my breaks on Henry this year is because of the following quote by Todd Monken, the Ravens’ Offensive Coordinator: “We’ll see how {his workload} goes. I mean, he’s been so durable… I still anticipate the same, of using all of our backs, trying to put them in the best position to be successful.” That is a damning quote to me. The Ravens have been the definition of backfield-by-committee for the past several years. The Ravens are 12th in the league in rushing attempts per game over the last three years. However, Lamar Jackson takes a share of those, and the rest is spread among their running back depth chart. Baltimore hasn’t had a running back lead the team in rushing since 2018. THAT IS A STUNNING STAT. That’s not because they’re waiting for a Derrick Henry. It’s because Lamar Jackson is this team’s identity AND their natural leading rusher. I don’t believe the Ravens will change their identity because they’ve improved their running back room. Betting on touchdowns scored isn’t how I want to spend my top few fantasy draft picks, and I feel that’s exactly what the consensus is doing. There’s too much risk involved for me.
Drake London
Atlanta Falcons, WR13 consensus vs. My WR42
London is a 6’4″ WR with a 4.54 40-yard dash and a brand new QB who consistently throws for 3,500+ yard seasons (Kirk Cousins). At a consensus WR13 rank, London is essentially being considered a WR1 in the fantasy realm, and that’s absurd to me. I know he was drafted 8th overall, so the Falcons are invested in making sure that his production matches his contract, but I’m a firm believer that a true WR1 can’t be stopped. It doesn’t matter who Justin Jefferson’s QB is, he produces. DaVante Adams hasn’t had a QB the level of Aaron Rodgers in years, and yet, Adams’ still produces. Even Terry McLaurin has consistently put up 1,000-yard seasons every year, despite horrendous QB play. We’re in year three with Drake London now. He’s yet to crack 1,000 yards receiving. I don’t say that as if it’s some easy feat to achieve. It’s not. It represents dominance. But if I’m going to draft Drake London as a WR1, he’d have to show me that he can dominate, and he simply has not.
Last season, 14 of the 16 games that London played in resulted in a fantasy output outside WR20 for the respective week. Over 80% of the time he displayed the production of a fantasy WR2 or worse. I will acknowledge Kirk Cousins provides a humongous upgrade in accuracy AND volume, but the Falcons are a team that is built to run the ball and play sound defense. Bijan Robinson is going to be the bell cow of this team, not Kirk Cousins, so expecting production to improve to the point London becomes a WR1 is a recipe for disaster. Don’t let hype ruin your draft.
Got a beef with Bradlee’s 2024 Most Overrated Fantasy Football Players? Let him hear about it in the comments below!