It is all about potential, flash, and upside. By no means does it imply that there is anything reckless going on, but there is a certain type of player you are going to be attracted to at the top of draft boards. It is only natural as they have many qualities that are alluring and intoxicating. In fact, I’m bucking some conventional wisdom here as the players I intend to poke holes in are quite popular. With that being said, I truly believe that what follows are 3 overrated players for 2024 fantasy baseball.
An overarching theme here is that there were roughly 1,000 more stolen bases last year compared to 2022. That means the need to overpay for speed is minimized. We still need more stolen bases, but there are more places to find them.
3 Overrated Players for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds, NFBC ADP of 21
Elly De La Cruz is truly an exciting talent. Power, speed, and overall excitement are plentiful. The good news is that he is just getting started. De La Cruz dominated the highlight reels after his promotion last season in an exciting debut.
But are we letting too much of the excitement take hold? Does 98 games and 427 plate appearances at the major league level truly make a player a second-round pick?
De La Cruz hit .235 last year with 13 home runs, 44 RBI, 67 runs scored, and 35 stolen bases. It is important to remember that he did it in just 97 games. Now the adjustment to major league pitching is seemingly out of the way. The Reds lineup is improving overall and that too, should help De La Cruz. So then, what can we expect from him in 2024, and is he worth the price?
The first concern is De La Cruz’s .235 batting average as it came despite a .336 BABIP. A large part of the problem was the rookie’s 33.7% strikeout rate as that doesn’t appear to be improving anytime soon. Even as De La Cruz does pick up some improvements, it’s hard to see his batting average climb much past .250. While no longer the liability it once was, it does take away one category’s worth of production.
Next, with the emphasis increasingly on power, can we truly count on De La Cruz to hit more than 20 home runs? His .175 ISO didn’t truly stand out from last year and his 3.6-degree average launch angle isn’t going to lead to an overabundance of long balls. With that being said, the ball does jump of De La Cruz’s bat with a 45.9% hard-hit rate but his 8.5% barrel rate doesn’t stand out either.
Nolan Jones, OF, Colorado Rockies, NFBC ADP of 59
Nolan Jones was a top prospect for the Cleveland Guardians for years before finding himself in Colorado. While he always showed potential, Jones never lived up to his talent or hype. But what we saw last year certainly took the league by surprise in his age-25 season.
Heading into 2024, how confident can we really be?
Before we go any further, there is always going to be the necessary caveat in place since Jones calls Colorado home. Jones hit .306 at home compared to .298 on the road, so at least last year, splits were not an issue. To take it a step further, Jones’ 20 home runs were divided evenly between home and the road. Jones also hit .314 against left-handers and .289 against right-handed pitching, so that is not a concern.
Even with a 29.7% strikeout rate, Jones still hit .297 in 424 plate appearances. For a player who previously failed to live up to expectations, this was the best season for Jones at any level. The sustainability here has to be in question given the prodigious strikeout rate as he could be prone to slumps. Even if he can work through the strikeouts, expecting Jones to sustain a .401 BABIP is highly unlikely. Instead, something closer to .250 or .260 is a lot more reasonable.
A 15.7% barrel rate is sure going to capture attention and after Jones’ 2023 performance, that is why we are here. With a 9.8-degree average launch angle though, his home run upside is limited. Seeing Jones go much beyond 25 home runs would be surprising. Ultimately, that is one of the factors which hinders his upside.
CJ Abrams, SS, NFBC ADP of 39
Stolen bases are a lot more commonplace than a year ago. That means we need more of them to compete, but some of the stress is mitigated. Knowing that there are more stolen bases means that scarcity is no longer as concerning. With that being said, it is difficult to stomach drafting CJ Abrams in the third round.
I would stop short of saying that Abrams is truly one-dimensional, but he will leave you playing catchup across the board. After stealing 47 bases last year, it is clear where his value lies, but that is likely his ceiling. Abrams hit just .245 last year and with a walk rate of only 5.2%, his stolen base opportunities are limited. Between that and a still weak Washington lineup, it is also hard to see Abrams score much more than his 83 runs from last year.
Abrams doesn’t leave you hanging with power, but he is also below average. With just a 6.9% barrel rate and a 35.7% hard-hit rate, Abrams doesn’t have much power potential. In 2023, the shortstop went deep 18 times, and unless there is a change in approach, he isn’t going much higher than that. The same can be said for Abrams’ 64 RBI.
The former top prospect is still a valuable commodity but within reason. Don’t go crazy chasing the stolen bases here. Unless Abrams improves his on-base skills, he is at his max here. Abrams’ limited power will likely leave you playing catchup as well. This is another situation where any profit potential is already baked into the cost.