Though we all draft differently, fantasy baseball managers are generally looking to do two things. First of course they’re looking to fill positional and statistical needs. Those stats are after all, how we win our leagues.
As drafts move along most fantasy managers get to be focused more on finding value; players who they believe will provide more production than their draft slot would seem to indicate.
While value comes in many forms, usually we’re talking about two types of MLB players.
- Young players who have not established their track record, thus priced lower than they will be next season
- Veteran players that had down years, whether it was due to bad luck, injury, or a combination of both
Naturally, a “rebound” article will be focusing on the second category, where we will look for 2024’s version of players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Tyler Glasnow, or Christia Yelich.
Rebound Candidates for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Cristian Javier, SP – Hou
2023 Stats: 31 GS 10-5 162.0 IP 4.56 ERA 159 SO
It was an up-and-down year for Javier – Following an incredible postseason run in 2022, going 12.2 IP with 1 ER (including 6 innings in the Astros World Series Game 4 no-hitter), he was tagged as a new fantasy ace coming into the 2023 season. He then proceeded to put up very un-ace like numbers.
The concerns go beyond surface-level numbers for Javier. Not only did his ERA increase from 2.54 to 4.56, but his xwOBA allowed increased from .244 (3rd lowest among starters with +200 batters faced) to .324 (91st lowest) in 2023. Even more concerning for many was the dip in Stuff+.
Biggest SP Stuff+ Drops
2022 -> 20231. Josiah Gray -49
2. Dylan Cease -26
3. Gerrit Cole -23
4. Julio Urias -22
5. Cristian Javier -20
6. Corbin Burnes -19
7. Brady Singer -19
8. Rich Hill -18 pic.twitter.com/Kl0I7s8FVo— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) December 13, 2023
So the question is, why the heck is he a rebound candidate? There are a few factors here:
- 2023 Postseason: In the postseason we saw his Stuff+ increase to 122 (with fastball Stuff+ of 119). This of course could be October adrenaline but it showed his ability to at least regain stuff when necessary
- Durability: He started 31 games and pitched 162 IP, which made him one of 44 pitchers to qualify last season. Among those pitchers, his (decreased) Stuff+ was still 22nd, above names like Aaron Nola and Pablo Lopez. So Javier’s floor given his durability and stuff presents a good value.
- Price in the draft: Cristian Javier on NFBC currently has a 173 ADP, this is below players like Bailey Ober and Gavin Williams, pitchers who have pitched fewer innings, and have lower Stuff+ than Javier
Tommy Edman, SS/2B – Stl
2023 Stats: 137 G 13 HR 27 SB .705 OPS
2022 was a mini-breakout for Edman, who came with momentum into the season after displaying elite bat skills in 2021. Edman won the leadoff hitter position by mid-April and wound up scoring 95 runs while swiping 32 bags.
2023 was not as successful for Edman fantasy-wise. He continued to impress on the field, even moonlighting as the Cardinals centerfielder in an injury-ravaged lineup.
This catch from Tommy Edman 🤯 pic.twitter.com/mHshnZIsbu
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 10, 2023
The emergence of Lars Nootbar and Brendan Donovan pushed Edman to the back of the lineup, which decreased his PA total and hurt his season totals (along with a wrist injury himself that he missed a month for).
So where is the “rebound” opportunity?
- Hi peripherals were almost identical between 2022 to 2023 (.308 xwOBA in 2022, .312 xwOBA in 2023)
- In 2023 his ADP was single-digit rounds above Oneil Cruz, Corbin Carroll, and Gunnar Henderson. In 2024 he will be priced in the mid-teens, below Thairo Estrada and Anthony Volpe
Manny Machado, 3B – SD
2023 Stats: 138 G 30 HR 3 SB .782 OPS
Machado had been a mainstay in the 1st/2nd round for years, and this may be the first year we can’t guarantee that. His 2023 ADP was 13, for 2024 (as of December 2023) it’s 70.
Let’s review all the dips in Manny Machado’s metrics that justify such a drop in ADP:
- Home Runs
- 2022: 32
- 2023: 30
- xwOBA
- 2022: .338
- 2023: .332
- Barrel Rate
- 2022: 9.8%
- 2023: 10.5%
Sarcasm aside, the biggest drops we saw in Machado’s performance were batting average (.298 to .258), and it should be mentioned his BABIP was .268 after it was .337 in 2023. The other drop was OPS (.898 to .782) in a season where he fractured his left hand.
With that said let’s break Manny Machado’s season down into 3 parts:
- Act I – Pre-injury bad luck Manny
- 40 games 5 HR .231/.282/.372 with a .263 BABIP
- Act II – Fresh off a fractured hand Manny
- 25 games 4 HR .262/.292/.421 with a .282 BABIP
- Act III – Back to regular programming Manny (with still bad luck)
- 72 games 21 HR .271/.349/.529 with a .266 BABIP
So if the program is regular Manny, there is no reason to avoid this player at a 5th-7th round value:
Come for the home run, stay for the curtain call. pic.twitter.com/HFaAjObvm4
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 23, 2023