3 Underrated Hitters for 2024 Dynasty Leagues

If there’s one skill that we unintentionally sharpen every holiday season it’s bargain hunting. Whether it’s seizing the flash sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday or the finding last-minute deals on gifts to stay under gift exchange spending limits, it’s clear the lead up to the holiday gifting season conditions us to find the best bang for our buck. It seems the only thing better than a great gift is one that was also bought on a great deal.

For dynasty fantasy baseball players, the same mindset can be applied to draft preparation and roster construction strategies. While choosing the right top end players to bid on early in an auction is critical for contention, it’s often the mid-round value picks that prove the key difference makers for winning teams. As we head into the new year and draft preparation season, we aim to help provide you with a head start by sharing our three underrated hitters for 2024 dynasty leagues.

Identifying underrated hitters is often a tricky endeavor as these are the forgotten or ignored players that tend to have either lost their prospect hype or just quietly shined on an unheralded losing team. Signs to look for when identifying an underrated hitter can include an unexpected advancement in skill progression, a newfound playing time opportunity, or earned multi-position eligibility. While there are many hitters that fall into one of these categories, our list below prioritizes those hitters that touch on multiple of those attributes.

3 Underrated Hitters for 2024 Dynasty Leagues

Josh Naylor, 1B, Cleveland Guardians

2023 stats (452 AB): 52 R/ 17 HR/ 97 RBI/ 10 SB/ .308 BA/ .354 OBP

For decades first base was seen as the staple position for building a high-powered offense until the last couple of years when it simply wasn’t any longer. However, what really changed is the way first base hitters delivered value to a fantasy team with the sudden loss of high-end power production. Yet diminished power doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of fantasy value, it just comes in different forms.

Josh Naylor is a prime example of a high-end hitter who falls 10-15 HRs from being lauded as a high-end fantasy hitter. While he only hit 17 home runs in 121 games played last season, a 23 HR full-season pace, he still managed 97 RBIs on the year, tying him with the likes of Austin Riley and Yordan Alvarez. What’s even more impressive about his RBI total is the pace at which he accumulated those stats, given missed time during the season due to a nagging oblique injury. He rates fifth among all hitters with more than 80 RBIs last season in average RBIs per game and per at-bat!

Average RBIs per Game Played (Minimum 80 RBIs on season)

Average RBIs per At-bat (Minimum 80 RBIs on season)

In addition to his impressive RBI output, Naylor batted .308 on the year and even swiped 10 bags, which ranked second and sixth amongst first basemen, respectively. Yet, early NFBC site ADP data shows Naylor going off the board as the 13th first baseman and pick 179 overall. As a 20-HR hitter in 2022, it’s safe to bet on an incremental uptick in power going into next season as his skills progress and playing time is solidified, potentially even delivering a top-five first baseman fantasy season.

Luis Campusano, C, Padres

2023 Stats (163 AB): 27 R/ 7 HR/ 30 RBI/ 0 SB/ .319 BA/ .356 OBP

Campusano finally found regular playing time in the last third of the 2023 season and made the most of the opportunity. So much so that a strong case could easily be made that he was the best hitting catcher over the last two months. In his 163 at-bats, he raked for a .319 average and an .847 OPS. Mix in his 7 HRs, and 24 HR full-season pace, and it’s hard not to see the low-risk and high-reward potential outcomes.

In the last third of the season, it was actually Gabriel Moreno who was lauded as the hottest-hitting catcher in baseball, helping the Diamondbacks push to a postseason berth. However, when you compare Moreno’s last 165 at-bats performance to Campusano’s 163 at-bats, covering most of the same time frame, we see that Campusano outpaced Moreno in several counting categories, as shown below. Yet, Moreno is currently ranked 14 spots higher (#6 catcher) than Campusano (#20 catcher) in the expert ranking consensus for catcher on fantasypros.com, as of 12/22/23.

Comparison of Moreno’s final 165 at-bats to Campusano’s 163 at-bats.

Once a perennial top 100 prospect, Campusano’s slow arrival to the major caused uncertainty to build about his potential viability as a starting catcher. Now with the path cleared for primary catching responsibilities in 2024, evidenced by the recent release of Austin Nola, the sky is the limit for Campusano hitting in the middle of a still powerful lineup. Plus, with his current NFBC average draft position as the sixteenth catcher drafted and pick 196 overall, it can finally pay to wait on catcher in the deepest of leagues.

Willi Castro, 2B/3B/OF, Twins

2023 Stats (258 AB): 27 R/ 7 HR/ 30 RBI/ 33 SB/ .257 BA/ .339 OBP

It’s often preached that steals can come from anywhere during a fantasy season and Willi Castro proved a perfect example of that notion. Yet, it’s rare that steals found on the waiver wire also come with a positive boost to several other hitting categories. In past instances where these quality hitting and high steal total ‘unicorn’ players have come along from the depths of ranking lists, e.g. Dee Strange-Gordon’s 2014 season, they quickly are elevated to a top 5 round fantasy pick status in the following year’s draft rankings.

However, for some reason, Willi Castro isn’t receiving the same treatment going into the 2024 draft season. It seems his breakout 2023 season is being largely dismissed in early NFBC drafting with an average draft position of 297, falling far below the draft line in most standard leagues! It’s likely that his super-utility status has created concern for consistent playing time, but that largely assumes Buxton stays healthy enough to return to everyday playing time and the Twins hold on to both Polanco and Kepler. Another likely reason for the omission from the top 250 drafted players is the lack of prospect pedigree and recognition. Consider a comparison to a player who put up similar stats as Castro in 2023, Elly De La Cruz, but is viewed as a high-potential rising superstar and top-two-round pick.

2023 Season Comparison

As you can see, Castro and De La Cruz had very close stats in counting categories while Castro maintained a much stronger batting average and on-base percentage. Even more eye-opening are the nearly identical stats for both players when Castro’s season pace is projected for the additional 30 at bats that Elly had in the season.

2023 Season Comparison (*Castro adjusted for equal at-bats)

While the consistent top two-round rankings for Elly De La Cruz have stirred a polarizing debate, it’s evident that Castro shouldn’t be ranked 20+ rounds later. This isn’t aimed to take a stance on the ranking of Elly De La Cruz, his growth potential his unrivaled. Yet, for those taking the risk on drafting Elly in the early rounds, there’s likely no better handcuff to mitigate the risk of a sophomore slump than drafting Willi Castro later as well.

Here’s to the Overlooked and Underrated Hitters

Let’s (quietly) celebrate the underrated hitters heading into the upcoming fantasy season and the potential they offer those who value them properly. For dynasty players, knowing you can tap these players in the later stages of your draft should build early excitement heading into the 2024 draft season. After all, when it comes to dynasty leagues value is the ultimate asset, and these players are flush with it.

Honorable mentions: Sal Frelick, Lourdes Gurriel, Brendan Donovan, TJ Freidl, and Jordan Walker.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.