We are about two weeks into the NFL’s new league year. After a massive wave of free agency, we have a much clearer picture of certain teams, players, and the expectations for them next season. The 2024 NFL Draft is the next big domino to drop before we can start solidifying player rankings before training camp. For now, I’m going to ease into the idea with one fact to consider for all 32 NFL teams next fantasy football season.
These facts may paint a positive or negative picture for a certain player or may just turn your attention toward a situation on a certain team. Either way, I think you’ll find them helpful, or at least get you thinking, even if we are a little less than six months away from Week 1.
One Fact to Consider for Fantasy Football from Each of the 32 NFL Teams
Arizona Cardinals
There are 38% of 2023 vacated targets left behind by Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz
The Arizona Cardinals still need to add talent and depth to their wide receiver room. It’s more than likely they do so with the fourth overall pick in next month’s draft. Regardless, tight end Trey McBride is set up for major success next season. He not only led the team with 106 targets last season, but Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore are both gone. They were second and third in targets. McBride is sixth in total targets amongst tight ends from last season, but third when you look at his numbers following the release of Zach Ertz. McBride’s 8.5 targets per game without Ertz would tie T.J. Hockenson for most per game in 2023. Even with an incoming stud rookie wide receiver, McBride should build on his high volume with a piece of the vacated targets left behind.
Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins had thrown for 4,000 or more passing yards in seven of eight seasons prior to 2023
The Atlanta Falcons haven’t had a 4,000-yard passer since Matt Ryan in 2020. In fact, even with multiple players attempting passes over the last three seasons, the team collectively hasn’t reached 4,000 passing yards since 2020, either. In addition to the Falcons’ big quarterback change, Zac Robinson is also their new offensive coordinator. He is the former Los Angeles Rams’ quarterbacks coach plucked from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Kevin O’Connell, the Minnesota Vikings’ head coach, of whom Cousins spent the last two seasons with, was the offensive coordinator in L.A., also under McVay, prior to moving on.
It’s easy to say that Atlanta will pass more in 2024. They’ve ranked 31st and 25th in pass attempts per game over the last two seasons. They should finish inside the top 15 next season. This new coaching staff knows what they have with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Bijan Robinson in the passing game. They also signed Darnell Mooney in free agency as well as traded for Rondale Moore from the Arizona Cardinals. If you miss out on any of the top options, Kirk Cousins could be a value if his Average Draft Position is suppressed by the fear of last year’s season-ending Achilles injury.
Baltimore Ravens
Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon, JK Dobbins, and Keaton Mitchell scored a combined 18 rushing touchdowns in 2023
Their 18 touchdowns make up 69% of the Ravens’ 26 rushing scores during the regular season. Gus Edwards is now on the Los Angeles Chargers. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon and JK Dobbins are both free agents. Even if Dobbins returns, he is working back from a season-ending Achilles tear. Speaking of season-ending injuries, Keaton Mitchell is returning from one of his own; an ACL tear in Week 15.
Derrick Henry now owns this Baltimore backfield with at least 44% of last year’s carries available to him. That includes Gus Edwards’ team-leading 198 rush attempts. Not only does Henry have 82 total rushing touchdowns over the last six seasons, 65 of them (79%) are red zone rushing touchdowns. With the volume available to him, on last season’s fourth-highest scoring team, Derrick Henry has a very good shot of leading the league in rushing touchdowns in 2024. He is firmly back in the RB1 conversation for fantasy football, something many weren’t sure of depending on where he landed.
Buffalo Bills
James Cook was the RB5 in points per game from Weeks 11 to 17
This is significant because Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator just before Week 11. After firing Ken Dorsey, Brady took over as the play caller and is now the full-time offensive coordinator for the 2024 season. With Brady calling the shots, Buffalo averaged 380.7 yards per game and 27.0 points per game. Prior to Brady, James Cook was the RB29 averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game. On the Bills’ current depth chart, James Cook has no current, significant competition between Ty Johnson and Darrynton Evans.
Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen led all Panthers with a 25.6% target share in 2023
Thielen’s 25.6% target share in 2023 is his third-highest over an 11-year career. It’s also his highest since 2018 when he led the Minnesota Vikings with a career-high 155 targets. Expecting Thielen, who will be 34 years old in August, to remain Bryce Young’s top target is irresponsible. That role now seemingly belongs to Diontae Johnson who is six years younger than Thielen and is used to handling approximately eight targets per game in his career. That average over a full season equates to roughly 141 targets, a number Johnson has reached in three-straight seasons from 2020 through 2022. I don’t care what you think of Bryce Young. You are going to get a high, volume-based floor with a WR2 ceiling from his new top target Diontae Johnson. Look for him in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts this summer.
Chicago Bears
The Bears’ all-time record for passing yards in a single season is 3,838 yards set by Erik Kramer in 1995
Yes, you read the correctly. 1995. There hasn’t been a Chicago Bears quarterback to break this record in just under 30 seasons. Caleb Williams will have his shot to do it in 2024 as the projected first overall pick to the Bears in the 2024 NFL Draft. Not only did the Chicago Bears trade for D.J. Moore last off-season, but they added Keenan Allen just last weekend. Allen’s 108 receptions ranked sixth in the league last season despite missing four games. D’Andre Swift will also lead the backfield as one of the better pass-catching backs in the league. Williams needs to average approximately 226 yards per game to break this Bears’ franchise record. Given the weapons in the passing game, he should push for 4,000 or more. Taking his rushing upside in consideration, as well, Williams has a clearer path than most rookies typically do to finish as a QB1 in fantasy football.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon accounted for 80.8% of the Bengals’ backfield carries last season
After trading Mixon to the Houston Texans, it leaves the Bengals with second-year back Chase Brown and recent free agent signee, Zack Moss, to pick up where Mixon left off. Where Mixon left off is with an average of 1,394 total yards over the last three seasons with 37 total touchdowns. Zack Moss is heading to Cincy on a two-year/$8 million deal but with just $3 million guaranteed. While he filled in nicely for Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis last season, Moss has never played more than 14 games, rushed more than 183 times, or scored more than five rushing touchdowns in a single season. All of those numbers just mentioned are career highs set in 2023. I want the ceiling play here in Chase Brown who should be much cheaper in drafts. He has a 328/1,643/10 rushing line to his name from his final collegiate season and runs a 4.43 40-yard dash.
Cleveland Browns
Jerry Jeudy has just five career games of 100 or more receiving yards
It’s not like Jerry Jeudy isn’t getting enough playing time either. He’s played in 57 career games since being drafted. In contrast, Ceedee Lamb, who was drafted two picks after Jeudy in the 2020 NFL Draft, has 18 games of 100+ receiving yards in just nine more regular season games played. If you want to count playoffs, then Lamb has 20 such games. Granted, Jeudy’s quarterback and team situation is nowhere the level of Lamb’s in Dallas. Perhaps a change of scenery, and a new contract, in Cleveland will do Jeudy some good. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate for whoever thinks there are too many mouths to feed on the Browns. They traded for Elijah Moore last off-season and haven’t paid him. Furthermore, Amari Cooper is set to be a free agent next off-season. Now may be the time to follow suit with what Cleveland did and get ahead of Jeudy’s market in dynasty leagues.
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard leaves behind 307 total touches, including 252 carries, from Dallas’ 2023 backfield
Those are both career-high numbers for Pollard who broke his leg/ankle nine months prior to the 2023 season and played in every game. His 4.3 yards per touch are a career-low, but he still logged a career-second-best 1,316 total yards. As of now, this gaping vacancy of work on last season’s highest-scoring team is up for grabs. The current depth chart lists Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, and Snoop Conner who all combined for 137 total touches in 2023. Dallas will likely use high draft capital on a running back. Whichever player that is should lock in as the top rookie running back pick in dynasty and redraft leagues.
Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton scored a touchdown in 10 of 16 games played last season
For those of us with Sutton on our 2023 fantasy football rosters, we can recall him as a “set-and-forget” player based on this. He had a five-game stretch from early October to late November in which he scored in all five games. Unfortunately, Sutton’s success last season can be seen as tied to Russell Wilson. He only played one of two games with quarterback Jarrett Stidham catching one of his four targets for two yards and no touchdowns. Sutton’s competition for targets clears up following the Jerry Jeudy trade. This Denver Broncos offense is likely to be playing from behind often, too. I’m not reaching for Sutton in 2024 fantasy drafts, but if he falls later to a point at which he’s good bench depth, I’ll snag him. I would feel a lot better if he found his way onto another NFL team via trade.
Detroit Lions
David Montgomery logged 50 red zone carries to Jahmyr Gibbs’ 37 last season
Even with slightly less work, Gibbs rushed for just 11 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns. As the Lions got in closer, Montgomery proved to be a bit more effective at grinding out yards and getting into the end zone. I don’t think much will change in regards to how Detroit handles this backfield in 2024. Depending on game script, we could see more of Montgomery when the Lions have a lead with Gibbs seeing more work when working from behind. Gibbs’ ceiling is just noticeably higher given his speed, receiving work, and ability as a runner, as well. I will probably draft more of Montgomery in 2024 especially if Gibbs is going multiple rounds sooner than him in redraft fantasy football leagues.
Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs has 262 or more touches in every season of his career
The 2022 NFL rushing leader has an average of 20.5 touches per game throughout his career. In his first five seasons, Jacobs has an average of 300.4 touches per season. He is replacing Aaron Jones in the Green Bay Packers’ backfield. Jones has never eclipsed 300 touches in a single season and has surpassed 250 just twice. That said, I don’t think Jacobs will see the heavy volume he’s used to from his time with the Raiders. However, he is going to have much more efficient touches on an ascending Packers offense.
Green Bay can lean on Jordan Love in the passing game a bit more here, too. The key to Jacobs’ value is securing the red zone touches. Green Bay was 17th in red zone scoring last season. Jacobs should boost them into the top-10. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 64 red zone rush attempts. Considering Dillon’s cap hit to return to the Packers is just $1.29 million in 2024, lower than than of a first round pick, it’s easy to imagine Jacobs seeing a heavy majority of the 2024 red zone rush attempts.
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud finished as the QB11 on a points-per-game basis as a rookie
I don’t want to take anything away from Stroud and his stellar rookie season. However, I fear he may be overvalued in 2024 drafts. Just 12.6% of his fantasy points are from rushing production. He isn’t much of a runner totaling just 167 rushing yards as a rookie and 136 total throughout his college career.. He doesn’t come close to some of the elite options at the quarterback position that either run far more than he ever will or are racking up many more points through the air.
Including NFL playoffs, Stroud had nine multi-score games through the air. He had eight games with one or zero passing touchdowns. As far as fantasy scoring goes, he had eight games below 20.0 points and six above, two of those going north of 30.0 points. I wouldn’t classify Stroud as “boom-or-bust” for fantasy football, but he is going to rank closer to the bottom of the top-12 than the top half for me. Especially since the Texans traded for Joe Mixon, I also worry he could be an asset to them moving the ball, controlling the clock, and getting into the end zone on the ground, especially when in the red zone. I’ll invest in Stroud by drafting any one of his pass catchers in 2024 drafts.
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson played just two complete games as a rookie but averaged 27.76 fantasy points in them
The sample size is obviously small. However, the ceiling with Richardson is incredibly high. Mobile quarterbacks are just invaluable for fantasy football and Richardson is proof of that. Over Richardson’s first three starts, 50.6% of his fantasy points are a result of his rushing production. He didn’t even finish his second game due to a concussion. Ahead of the 2024 season, the Colts extended Michael Pittman Jr., keeping Richardson’s top target in town. I’m willing to wait a bit in drafts for Richardson with the possibility of landing a top-five player at his position. The hype and recent bias exist for someone like C.J. Stroud (above), but if we are strictly talking fantasy football, I’m taking Richardson over a guy like Stroud almost every chance I can.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram’s 143 targets are the most among 2023 Jaguars
Close behind Engram in targets from last season is Calvin Ridley with 136. Ridley is now on the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars did sign Gabe Davis to a three-year deal, but he’s never logged more than 93 targets in a season with an average of 74.75 since his 2020 rookie season. That was with Josh Allen as his quarterback! Evan Engram has been a top-five tight end on a fantasy points-per-game basis in each of his first two seasons in Jacksonville. He is unlikely to get drafted as such this summer making him one of my favorite values at the position.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of touchdown pass in 2023 was 3.9 yards
That’s actually down from 4.5 yards in 2022 and way down from 17.3 yards in 2019. In fact, his average depth of touchdown passes has declined in each of the last five seasons. That should change in 2024 with the addition of Marquise Brown. He should claim the role left behind by Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the Chiefs’ primary deep threat from last season. He averaged 15.0 yards per reception.
The addition of Brown means more for Mahomes than Brown himself. Brown’s 4.27 speed will stretch the field in a big way. Adding a better downfield threat to Mahomes’ arsenal is going to boost his fantasy numbers as a result of big plays that hopefully result in quick-hitting, high-scoring touchdown passes. Mahomes should return to being a top-five fantasy quarterback, something he’s done every season as a starter except in 2023.
Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White handled 84 total carries in the Raiders’ final four games last season
With both the departure of Josh Jacobs and the arrival of Alexander Mattison, the Las Vegas Raiders are giving us plenty of reason to believe Zamir White can be a feature back next season. Not only did White handle an average of 21 carries per game in Jacobs’ late-season absence, but he handled it well. White churned out 4.72 yards per carry with no less than 69 rushing yards per contest. More importantly, in these four games, he rushed for 112 and 145 yards in two of them. White had only logged 20 total carries in the 13 games prior so the seamless increase in work without a hitch is encouraging. Alexander Mattison is a fine backfield addition, but newly promoted, full-time head coach, Antonio Pierce, will likely give Zamir White the chance to be a bell cow back.
Los Angeles Chargers
Greg Roman is the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers
In his most recent role in the NFL, Roman served as the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2022. During that time, the Ravens ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 6th respectively in rush attempts per game. Now, in L.A., we’ve seen the Chargers sign center Bradley Bozeman who was the Ravens’ starting center from 2019 to 2021. His offensive coordinator during that time? Greg Roman. We’ve also seen them cut costs in replacing Austin Ekeler in the backfield with Gus Edwards. He was a Baltimore Raven from 2018 to 2023. Yes, he has Greg Roman ties, too. Above all else, the Chargers traded away Keenan Allen and let Mike Williams walk in free agency. It’s not that L.A. isn’t going to pass next season, but they sure look like they’re getting ready to run a lot more than usual. This makes me a bit lower than I’d care to admit on Justin Herbert for 2024.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua is one of just 12 wide receivers to record over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie since the 2014 NFL season
If you didn’t know, Puka Nacua’s 1,486 receiving yards are the most ever from any player in their rookie season. While everyone is searching for “the next Puka Nacua” in a very strong 2024 rookie wide receiver draft class, let’s just focus on drafting Puka Nacua himself in 2024. Quietly, the Los Angeles Rams extended offensive lineman Kevin Dotson and signed Jonah Jackson to the line, as well. They also signed free agent tight end Colby Parkinson. The blocking up front for quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is probably nearing retirement, couldn’t be better in what could be his final season. Puka Nacua will continue to dominate with trust from Stafford with 31-year-old Cooper Kupp as his only legitimate competition for a massive target share. Puka Nacua should have an easy time proving he’s not a one-year wonder.
Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert tied Christian McCaffrey for a league-leading 21 total touchdowns last season
Although they are vastly different players, my sentiment for Mostert is the same as I have for McCaffrey (you’ll see below) for next season. I don’t want to pay for his 2023 production in 2024 drafts. Mostert has a stunning 1,117 less career touches than McCaffrey. However, Raheem Mostert will be 32 years old in April. Sure, there may still be tread on his tires, but that’s because of a career full of a lengthy injury history that’s kept him out. Mostert’s big breakout in 2023 is something I did not see coming. His 18 rushing touchdowns alone doubled the nine rushing touchdowns from all of the Miami Dolphins running backs combined the year prior. I think Miami could use another draft pick on a running back even after grabbing De’Von Achane in the third round last season.
Minnesota Vikings
Since hiring Kevin O’Connell as head coach in 2022, the Vikings rank third and sixth in pass attempts per game in his first two seasons
Consider the drop from third to sixth is just from 39.6 to 37.1 pass attempts per game between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Now, consider, too, that in 2023 the Vikings deployed Kirk Cousins, rookie Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs, and Nick Mullens due to injuries. As of now, Sam Darnold looks to be the Week 1 starter for next season. Everyone is expecting Minnesota to move up from the 11th overall pick to select a rookie quarterback, but who that will be and when we could see them play remains a mystery. I still think O’Connell wants to keep attacking through the air. So, if for nothing else, all of the pass catchers in purple should sustain some level of value on volume. Justin Jefferson is still arguably the best wide receiver across all 32 NFL teams.
New England Patriots
Julian Edelman’s 1,117 yards in 2019 is the last time the Patriots had a player log 1,000 or more receiving yards
Is it a coincidence that Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020? New England is finally doing a hard reset following the departure of head coach Bill Belichick. Not only is there a new coaching regime, but they have the third overall pick in the draft to work with. At this point, I’m expecting them to use the pick on a quarterback. If so, said quarterback will be throwing to Juju Smith-Schuster, K.J. Osborn, Demario Douglas and others in 2024. It would be cool if New England then used Pick 34 on a wide receiver after missing out on some bigger-name free agents. Either way, with 32 NFL teams to choose from, this isn’t a passing offense I plan to target in fantasy football as anything other than depth additions for my bench. It’s looking like another season without a 1,000-yard receiver.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave is averaging 46.5 more targets than the next closest Saints pass catcher in each of his first two seasons
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the next closest pass catcher to Olave in his first two seasons is Alvin Kamara. It does surprise me though that Kamara’s 87 targets are second to Olave’s 138 in 2023 given Kamara’s three-game absence to begin the season then missing Week 18 after official elimination from the NFL playoffs. New Orleans is a team nobody really pays any mind to because it feels like they’ve been embodying the definition of insanity: trying the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. They have nine draft picks next month, however, seven of them are in Round 5 and beyond. Chris Olave would benefit from the presence of another strong receiving option other than Rashid Shaheed streaking downfield and Alvin Kamara operating underneath.
New York Giants
The Giants’ target leaders over their last six respective seasons are Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton
In other words, each name above represents the player who led the Giants in targets from 2018 to 2023, left to right. That’s a different player each season for the last six seasons. What’s even worse is that Beckham and Engram are the only two to draw more than 100 targets in each respective season. Only Darius Slayton is still with the team and, unless if the Giants draft a legitimate top option, he looks like he could lead the team in targets again. If tight end Darren Waller does retire, he and Saquon Barkley’s departures this off-season leave behind a combined 35% of targets from last season. This really is just a nod to the turnover in personnel as we don’t even know if Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, or someone else will be playing quarterback. This will be one of the most avoided offenses for fantasy football across all 32 NFL teams.
New York Jets
Breece Hall had just one carry inside the five-yard line last season
All things considered, it’s amazing Breece Hall is the 2023 RB8 with 16.3 points per game. The New York Jets scored just 15.8 points per game, the fourth-least amount amongst all 32 NFL teams. Luckily, Breece Hall led all running backs in receptions (76) last season. Now, imagine the Jets with a full season of Aaron Rodgers running an expectedly more efficient offense. Sure, Breece Hall may not haul in 70 receptions, or even 60, but he should see plenty more red zone opportunities in 2024. New York also beefed up their offensive line by signing Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses. I understand the skepticism surrounding Rodgers and the Jets, but Breece Hall is a trustworthy piece of this offense to invest in.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift account for 90% of the Eagles’ rushing touchdowns in 2023
That 90% is made up of Swift’s five and Hurts’ whopping 15 for a total of 20 of the team’s 22 rushing scores last season. They also account for 75.6% of the team’s 2023 carries with Swift’s 229 leading the way. Swift is now a Chicago Bear while Saquon Barkley takes his place on a big-money deal in Philadelphia. Not only should Barkley gobble up the workload left behind by Swift, and Miles Sanders before him, but I expect him to take some of the rushing off of Jalen Hurts’ plate, as well.
If the Eagles are to go the distance next season, it’s with a healthy Hurts. That means lessening harmful situations such as designed runs and reckless scrambling. Assuming Barkley himself is healthy, he should help with that and push for closer to 275 carries considering his 16.2 carries per game career average over the course of a 17-game season. He’s only played 16 or more games twice in the last six years. Kenneth Gainwell remains a top handcuff for this reason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson and Justin Fields currently cost the Steelers a combined $4.5 million for the 2024 season
Wilson, of course, is on a $1.2 million veteran minimum contract while Fields is entering the fourth year of his rookie deal worth $3.3 million. Pittsburgh must decide whether or not to exercise Fields’ fifth-year option by the May 2nd deadline. That’ll guarantee Fields $25 million for next season without having played a snap yet for this team.
I believe the Steelers will negotiate a new two-year deal that will pay Fields more this season and less in 2025, and therefore less altogether, until he proves he’s the future of their franchise. This is what the Green Bay Packers did with Jordan Love last season. If this comes to fruition, and Fields does get more money in 2024, how long before we see him at the Steelers’ starter? Don’t rule out the idea that Fields beats Wilson for the job straight up before Week 1. I could also see another team come calling for Wilson if they suffer a significant injury during training camp. His contract is very team-friendly enough for all of the 32 NFL teams.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey has 1,948 total career touches including playoffs
I know none of us are fading Christian McCaffrey simply for the fact that the ceiling is too good to pass up on. However, I can’t help but think we are drafting him today at yesterday’s price. McCaffrey just logged 417 total touches in 2023 including playoffs. Reaching the Super Bowl is also the latest he’s ever played in his career. McCaffrey logged over 400 touches in a single season just once before in 2019. The following season, he played just three games due to injury. Christian McCaffrey is one of my favorite players so don’t mistake my concern for criticism. Nobody is going to fault you for using a top pick on McCaffrey in 2024 redraft leagues. However, I would almost rather have a slightly later pick so someone else can make my decision for me, force me to look elsewhere for a stud.
Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf has finished higher than WR14 just once in his first five seasons
After a WR7 finish in 2020, Metcalf is the WR14, WR16, and WR21 in three seasons since. For those keeping score at home, the ranking is getting worse and worse each season. The 2024 season will be Metcalf’s first without Pete Carroll as his head coach. More importantly, with new head coach, Mike MacDonald of a defensive mind, Metcalf’s new offensive coordinator is Ryan Grubb. Notably, as the University of Washington’s offensive coordinator, Grubb generated an offense that ranked first in passing yards per game with 369.8 during the 2022 season.
If Geno Smith were to somehow keep up that average for a full season in Seattle, he would break all-time NFL records. I don’t expect that, but do think the 2024 offense emphasizes the pass more. Unfortunately for Metcalf, Tyler Lockett will be back on a reworked deal and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is entering just his second season. It’s hard to imagine going into the 2024 fantasy football season trusting Metcalf as anything more than a WR2 with weekly upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White handled 75.5% of Tampa’s running back carries and 76% of the running back touches in 2023
After surviving free agency and the draft last off-season, it appears White may do so again in regards to competition for touches. Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker are the only other two backs currently on the roster. They handled 64 total carries last season to White’s 272. Additionally, White logged 64 receptions to their 16 combined. White’s volume-based production yielded a top-10 finish in fantasy football. The offense will generally look the same in 2024 with two key pieces in Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans both returning. I’ll be paying attention to the Bucs during the 2024 NFL Draft, but don’t expect them to add a running back until Day 3. White should have another RB1 fantasy season in 2024.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ new head coach is Brian Callahan and the new offensive coordinator is Nick Holz
Callahan is the former offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals while Holz is the former Jacksonville Jaguars’ passing game coordinator. Both the Bengals and Jaguars ranked inside the top-seven teams in pass attempts last season. Meanwhile, the Titans haven’t ranked inside the top 20 since 2013. That includes being dead last in pass attempts per game in 2023. The coaching hires plus signing Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard in free agency lead me to believe the Titans are going to give quarterback Will Levis every opportunity to succeed through the air next season.
Maybe not as extreme, but we could see Levis’ 2024 mimic that of former Washington Commander, Sam Howell’s, 2023 season. Howell threw the most pass attempts in the league yielding 21 touchdown passes, but 21 interceptions, as well. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game as the QB7 from Weeks 1 through 13 before struggling down the stretch. Will Levis is a nice target later on in 2024 Superflex drafts and a quarterback to keep an eye on 1QB league waiver wires.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders’ 30.5 points per game allowed was the most by any team last season
Washington’s newest head coach, Dan Quinn, is the former defensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense, under Quinn, allowed just 20.2 points per game in 2023. That’s the ninth-least. Even better, the San Francisco 49ers allowed 18.8 points per game which is the fourth-least. Washington’s new general manager, Adam Peters, is San Francisco’s former assistant general manager. So, free agent signings such as Dante Fowler, Frankie Luvu, Jeremy Chinn, Clelin Ferrell, Bobby Wagner, and others shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. This isn’t the youngest group of defensive reinforcements, but there is plenty of talent. The Commanders’ defense will have some sneaky value as a matchup-based streamer next fantasy football season. While the rookie quarterback they select with the second-overall pick will determine the value of their 2024 offense.