As the 2023 PGA season approaches its end, the penultimate regular season event will be held by TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This will be the 5th year TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open, following a major redesign prior to the inaugural 2019 tournament. The course will challenge golfers off the tee, and reward them with ample birdie opportunities should they find the fairway. Let’s take a deep dive into TPC Twin Cities, the field it will face, and a few players I have my eye on for wagers.
The Course: TPC Twin Cities
The par 71, 7,400+ yard TPC Twin Cities layout will demand excellence off the tee in both distance and accuracy. Most fairways are lined with either thick trees or water hazards, making double bogeys more viable with one missed swing. While hazards are there to penalize the errant shots, a long, thick rough will still lower par chances for tee shots that barely miss the fairway. If the tee shots are accurate enough, golfers will have some of the largest greens on Tour to look at.
With the scoring average at 70.1, it’s expected to have birdie and eagle chances throughout the course. There are a few short par 4s that the longer players will have an opportunity to drive the green. The par 5s will be reachable my most of the field as well. Expect a lot of fireworks, but beware of some blowup holes as well. Ball-striking will be the most important stat this week, as being accurate and long off the tee will set up a lot of good looks into the green. Putting is important as always, but being a notoriously good putter has not shown much correlation in the past. If Cam Champ’s short game can win here, anyone can. It will truly come down to who can succeed the most off the tee and give themselves the most birdie opportunities.
The Field
This event has not seen truly strong fields in its young 4-year history. However, with this year’s decreasing of FedEx Tournament positions from 120 to 70, there are some really talented golfers teeing it up this week.
Household names Justin Thomas (75th) and Gary Woodland (90th) will take the long flight from Hoylake, England to Blaine, Minnesota in desperation of last-minute FedEx points. While JT has never had to stoop so low as to play the 3M Open, Gary Woodland has played it once, finishing T11 in 2021. Both will need a made-cut and strong weekend finish to secure a spot in Memphis. Otherwise, they will have to look to the Wyndham Championship as their last saving grace.
Other big names include defending champion Tony Finau, last year’s runner-up Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, and Hideki Matsuyama. Young guns Ludvig Aberg, Sam Bennett, Akshay Bhatia, and Peter Kuest will look to follow in Matt Wolff’s footsteps in finding early success in Blaine.
Best Bets for The 3M Open
Gary Woodland (+3500)
When it comes to ball-striking consistency, Gary Woodland will be the best in the field. He has gained strokes OTT in 20 consecutive tournaments. He hits it further than most while also being more accurate than most. His approach play is phenomenal as well, ranking 10th on Tour. With this stat profile, you would expect Woodland to be toward the top of the leaderboard in most tournaments. However, seeing that he is ranked 90th and fighting for a spot in the playoffs, we know this is not the case.
Gary Woodland’s short game is amongst the worst in the professional game of golf. He’s gained strokes in the short game category in only 4 tournaments this year. With his ball-striking ability, I fully expect Gary to find himself plenty of birdie and eagle looks. Now, whether or not he makes the most of these chances is yet to be seen. But with the 3M Open’s history of non-prolific putters’ success, I will gladly follow Woodland’s elite ball striking and hope he can bury enough putts to find himself in contention.
Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
Albeit a short professional history, Ludvig Aberg has shown some serious promise of a successful career. Since turning pro, Ludvig has gained more than 3.6 strokes OTT in every event. He has also gained strokes approaching the green in 4 of his 7 Tour events this season.
With 4 NCAA wins this year, Ludvig knows all there is about winning a golf tournament. There is no doubt his strength is off the tee, but the rest of his game can follow suit as well. With the biggest emphasis on off-the-tee play, we can confidently back Ludvig to have the best opportunities out of anyone in the field. Similar to Woodland, it will truly come down to the putter. Luckily for Aberg, he is already a better putter than Woodland. He has gained strokes putting in 3 of his 7 events, and if he can continue to do so in Blaine, look for him atop the leaderboard come Sunday.
Stephan Jaeger (+3500)
It seems like Stephan Jaeger has been on the brink of getting his first PGA win for years now. He had no trouble winning on the Korn Ferry, taking 6 wins in as many years before earning his full Tour card. He currently ranks first on Tour in birdies, which should come in handy this week at the 3M Open. Similar to Woodland and Aberg, his ball striking is where he truly excels. However, Jaeger has found something with the putter that should give him a real chance at his first win.
Stephan has now gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 7 events. Prior to this streak, he had lost strokes in 10 straight tournaments. Jaeger certainly profiles as a golfer who could find success in Blaine. If you can get past his shaky tournament history, I believe he is worth a look.
Full odds for The 3M Open can be found from DraftKings Sportsbook.