Mick Ciallela’s Top-400 Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

Spring Training may not be upon us anytime soon, as there are plenty of question marks regarding the 2022 Major League Baseball season given the current state of affairs between MLB and its Players Association. So far, most negotiation sessions between the sides have lasted about as long as a game of Wordle. But no matter how long the lockout lasts, fantasy baseball draft season is always in full swing. With that in mind, it is time to release my first official set of 2022 fantasy baseball rankings. I will update these over the next few weeks, and I will add some thoughts below on specific position groups as it relates to your draft prep.

General Notes

I feel the need to strongly emphasize that these rankings are a constant work in progress. All rankings and projections should constantly be adjusted throughout the draft season. If you go into your draft with a list you have blindly stuck to for the last four weeks, you are likely to miss out on some values. Hell, while I was “finalizing” this list, the Josh Jung news came out. That nugget alone caused me to drop Jung nearly 30 spots, while I bumped Isiah Kiner-Falefa up a bit. So even though this is my first published set of 2022 rankings, I have already tweaked them plenty of times and will continue to do so. Once the labor situation is resolved, expect plenty of player movement, which will also affect rankings.

To be fully transparent, I’m not sure if the last tweak I made will stick going forward. I adjusted my formula somewhat based on a potentially shortened season, and the result ended up in my dropping 28 players among my top-400 at least 10 spots. That in and of itself is not necessarily bad. However, of the 28, 16 are pitchers and five are catchers. Meanwhile, I bumped 44 players up at least 10 spots. Of those, only six are pitchers and none are catchers. So it is certainly possible that I am currently too low on pitchers and catchers as a whole. I don’t mind being low on catchers per se (I’ll address that momentarily), but I may need to readjust how I value pitchers.

Next to each hitter, you will see the number of games they played at each position last season. I recently published my Top-50 Multi-Positional Eligible Hitters for 2022. Several people indicated to me that their leagues require fewer than 20 games (the threshold I used for that piece) in their leagues. I decided it would be helpful to list the number of games each player manned a particular position to benefit those whose leagues are a bit looser with their eligibility requirements.

Catchers

As I just mentioned, I probably have catchers ranked lower than most. The reason is simple. Catchers do not generate a ton of fantasy value. Over the last four full seasons, there have been just 65 instances of a catcher reaching the threshold to qualify based on plate appearances. According to Baseball Monster, those 65 players have combined for three seasons which resulted in positive Roto value. An average season among those 65 backstops looks like this: 

 .2587 batting average, 53.84 runs, 60.96 runs batted in, 18.23 home runs, 1.92 stolen bases

Razzball’s dollar values are a bit kinder to catchers than Baseball Monster. I find their dollar values to be an excellent guide. Last year, Yadier Molina earned $2.5 of value, ranking eighth among catchers. But he still finished outside of the top-200 in doing so. This is where I point out that I use my rankings as more of a value projection than an ADP price point. To illustrate what I mean by that, I currently have Adley Rutschman ranked eighth among catchers, at number-285 overall. There is virtually no chance of drafting him at that spot, especially if you believe that he will be a top-10 fantasy catcher this season. Our ADP data currently has Rutschman at number-177 overall, which is much more likely to be his cost on draft day.

Despite the dearth of fantasy production among catchers, if there is one player I can almost guarantee I will not draft this year, it is Salvador Perez. He had a season for the ages in 2021, one which I am quite grateful for. But I just cannot justify drafting a catcher in the third round of a 12-team league, no matter how prolific he may be. It is worth noting that part of the reason Perez had such an advantage over the field in 2021 was that he played 40 games at DH last season. Only one other catcher (Eric Haase with 11) had more than 10 such games. With the universal DH appearing likely for 2022, that advantage will not be as pronounced. After Perez, four of my next five ranked catchers play in the National League. I prefer most of them to Perez from an ADP value standpoint.

Corner Infielders

I only have 15 corner infielders ranked among my top-100 players. At first glance, that would indicate a need to draft them early before they fly off the board. Certainly, I would not steer anyone away from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero or Jose Ramirez. However, I do think there is a ton of value to be had later in drafts. I have 23 players eligible at corner infield spots ranked between 101-200. The beauty about many of these players (11 of them to be precise) is that they are eligible at multiple positions. And that does not even count players like Jared Walsh and Josh Bell, who qualify at other positions using a 10-game threshold. I love the idea of grabbing more than one of these players in the middle rounds. They provide roster flexibility and can easily outperform their ADP.

Even beyond the top-200, there is potentially significant value to be had. Brandon Belt ranked 36th overall in dollars per game last season, per Razzball. I may very well be too low on him given his production over the last two years. Luke Voit was a first-round fantasy player as recently as 2020. I have both him and Belt ranked outside the top-200, but there is upside there. Voit’s situation is a bit more tenuous given that the Yankees appear intent on upgrading their offense. Jeimer Candelario is another hitter I have outside my top-200 (barely) who is quite intriguing to me. He has made some recent improvements that appear to be going a bit under the radar. Our own Corbin Young recently highlighted him as a potential breakout candidate. Any player that Corbin mentions is worth a minute under the microscope.

Middle Infielders

Shortstops have been among the most productive fantasy players for several years now. And in the case of the rich getting richer, Trea Turner and Fernando Tatis are among those who now have dual-eligibility. If you are lucky enough to secure either with a top-two pick, you can very easily pair them with another middle infielder in the next few rounds. Talk about a cheat code. I currently have 10 players eligible at shortstop among my top-50 overall players. Even if you feel that some of my hitter values are a bit inflated, it is hard to argue that you should stock up on middle infielders to maintain a competitive offense in fantasy.

The crazy thing is that as top-heavy as middle infielders are, there is also plenty of potential value picks as well. Hot prospects like Wander Franco, Bobby Witt Jr., and Oneil Cruz will be highly-coveted on draft day. I tend to rely less on rookies and prospects than others, but there is no denying the possible reward. Jonathan India and Jazz Chisholm had excellent rookie campaigns in 2021. India is seemingly one of the few middle infielders who do not carry multi-positional eligibility heading into 2022. It’s a shame because he carried third base eligibility in many formats last season. However, even if he is only eligible at second base this year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year makes for an excellent addition to any fantasy roster. I have him ranked 79th overall.

Once you get into the middle rounds, there are once again plenty of players to choose from, and many of them are eligible at multiple positions. Jake Cronenworth, Chris Taylor, Luis Urias, and Josh Rojas are all eligible at both middle infield positions as well as a third position. That is not even taking into account players such as DJ Lemahieu, Ty France, Max Muncy, and Jonathan Schoop, all of whom are eligible at middle infield as well as corner. I have every player I just mentioned inside my top-200. There are several others I like outside my top-200, including Abraham Toro (#243, 2B/3B eligible). The permutations with regard to roster and lineup construction are seemingly endless if you can grab a few of these players.

Of course, you will also need to create a balanced lineup from a production standpoint as well. Several players currently outside my top-200 can provide solid production depending on your needs. Jonathan Villar and Nick Madrigal are solid sources of late-round steals. Luis Arraez, Adam Frazier, David Fletcher, and Jeff McNeil can help boost your batting average. And Gio Urshela is worth a late-round flier given his run-production capabilities. He is also eligible to play both corner infield and middle infield.

Outfield

You will need to start five outfielders in most leagues, so plan accordingly. There is no shortage of productive outfielders early on in drafts. 13 of my top-31 players qualify in the outfield, and with good reason. Things drop off a bit for me after that, but I still have another 15 OF-eligible players inside my top-100 overall, so it is not as if production falls off a cliff. Still, I would try to secure at least one outfielder early on if possible. You will not be able to field an all-star team, of course, but you do not want to get behind the eight-ball when you have five roster spots to fill.

Having said that, if you would have told me two years ago that I would have Cody Bellinger ranked 90th overall and Christian Yelich 109th, I would have asked the bartender for some of whatever you’re having. Based on my rankings, you can surmise that I do not exactly expect a return to prior form for either former National League MVP. But if you wanted to grab one or both (or Giancarlo Stanton for that matter) and party like it’s 2019, who am I to stop you? We know the upside is there.

In the middle rounds, I tend to prefer a balanced hitter with upside over a one-trick pony type. For example, I would rather have Lourdes Gurriel than Joey Gallo. Our ADP currently has Gallo higher by nearly three rounds. I think that is a huge mistake. We know Gallo’s power potential is tough to replicate. But so is the drain on batting average he comes with. No, I do not expect Gallo to hit .160 again, as he did in 58 games with New York last year. But I would caution against digging yourself a hole in batting average early in the year. It is much easier to grab players who can contribute to counting categories throughout the year than it will be to find players who help with ratios. From an ADP standpoint, I would much rather draft someone like Adam Duvall several rounds later.

In the later rounds, there will be some value picks available in the outfield depending on what you need. But many of them will be replaceable if someone else should emerge early in the season. If it turns out that your 27th-round Rafael Ortega or 30th-round Tyler Naquin cannot replicate their breakout 2021 seasons, you can probably cut bait as opposed to waiting it out. The 30-year old outfielders likely do not have another gear we have yet to see at the Major League level.

Starting Pitching

As I discussed at the top, I adjusted my rankings based on the likelihood of there being a shortened 2022 MLB season. That adjustment resulted in a decrease in value among many starting pitchers. Small sample size alert, but… in 2020, Baseball Monster had 16 pitchers ranked among their top-48 players in each season. The breakdown of those 16 was nine starting pitchers and seven relievers. Last season, it was a 13-3 split in favor of starters. In 2019, 11 starters finished inside the top-48, as opposed to just one reliever. For the record, I do not expect a 60-game season, so perhaps that data is a bit skewed. Having said that, I do think there is a potential hit to starters as a whole if the season does not start on time.

In recent years we have seen the evolution of pitching into a much more condensed practice. As recently as 2019, 15 pitchers threw at least 200 innings. Last season, that number was reduced to four. Corbin Burnes won the National League Cy Young Award last season. He finished 11-5. His teammate, Brent Suter, finished 12-5. Brent Suter made one start last year. ONE. Now, none of this is to suggest that Burnes should be faded, or that he is not an elite pitcher. I have him ranked as my 11th overall player. And we know that pitchers fly off the board, particularly in leagues with higher stakes. You will have to pony up to acquire top-tier talent, especially when it comes to pitching.

Waiting on pitching entirely is not a strategy I would endorse. However, I would suggest taking as many pitchers as possible towards the latter stages of your drafts. I drafted Freddy Peralta in the 23rd round of my TGFBI draft last year. I also drafted Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, and Josh Lindblom before that. They’re not all winners, folks. However, as long as at least one of them hits, you should be in pretty good shape. For the record, I drafted starters (Shane Bieber and Brandon Woodruff) with two of my first three picks in that draft. I took just one starter with my next nine picks, and that was Dinelson Lamet, who busted due to injury. Despite only having one of my top-three projected starters for much of the year, I ended up with 21 out of a possible 30 combined points in wins and strikeouts.   

There are plenty of pitchers who can give you a great bang for your buck towards the back half of drafts. I think that Michael Kopech and Ranger Suarez offer a potentially great return on investment depending on how many innings each can throw relative to the number of games played. Keep in mind, however, that Kopech in particular may have his workload manipulated on a per-game basis. It is never fun starting a pitcher when you know he is on a 60-75 pitch limit, thus severely reducing his chance for a win and a good among of strikeouts. Tanner Houck and Triston McKenzie are a couple of others who are among my personal favorites as the draft moves on, and many others can fit the bill.

Relief Pitching

I have a feeling that more leagues than ever are going to be won based on how certain relief pitchers perform. The weird thing for me is that I’m not entirely sure it is all dependent on saves. Sure, we draft relievers primarily for their save potential. And given the increased willingness by managers to mix and match, the traditional closer has more value. This is why even though it seems crazy for an oldhead like me to watch fantasy managers drafting the likes of Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader in the third round, I can sort of get behind the logic. Positional scarcity in fantasy baseball is real, and the number of relievers we can safely project for 30-plus saves decreases by the minute. But relievers can offer more than just saves to the mix.

I mentioned in the starting pitcher blurb that Brent Suter won 12 games last season. He was one of four relievers who had at least 10 wins in 2021. The other three (Paul Sewald, Chad Green, and Alex Reyes) did not start a single game. Reyes was a bit strange in the sense that he lucked his way into several wins in September after he had been removed from the closer’s role. But Sewald and Green were the prototypical “high leverage” relievers that the game is embracing more and more. Blake Treinen, Andrew Kittredge, Garrett Whitlock, and Devin Williams are several other examples of pitchers who fall under this category. With starters pitching fewer innings than ever, relievers are grabbing a larger percentage of wins.

Of course, there is no surefire way to predict which relief pitchers can threaten for double-digit wins. But these pitchers all provide solid ratios and possess high-strikeout upside. Any wins and/or saves that they accumulate are essentially a bonus. As someone who watched my aforementioned TGFBI team’s lead evaporate in September in no small part due to Wade Miley destroying my ratios by relinquishing 36 hits and 17 earned runs in 18.1 September innings, I could only wish that I had stacked my roster with more middle relievers. Do not impact the positive effects that solid middle relievers can have on your team. They can help solidify your ratios, and the upside for an increased role which may lead to additional wins and saves can be massive.

Top-400 Rankings Fantasy Baseball 2022